The 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) began on 8 September 2026. This session is taking place at a time when global geopolitical and geo-economic uncertainties have deepened.
For Bangladesh, this UN General Assembly session is particularly significant. This is because wars, strategic competition among major powers, tariff policies, technological rivalry, energy uncertainty, climate-related trade policies, and shifts in global supply chains are all now directly tied to Bangladesh’s economic prospects and risks.
From globalisation to geo-economics
Economic efficiency was once the primary driving force of globalisation. That calculation has now changed. Beyond low costs, factors such as how politically reliable a country is, how much supply chains could be disrupted by war or sanctions, which technologies are critical to national security, and the risks of over-reliance on a single nation have all become central to the decisions of governments and businesses alike.
Consequently, countries are using trade, investment, finance, technology, energy, and supply chains as strategic tools. If the multilateral trading system splinters into geopolitically divided blocs, global GDP could decrease by up to 5.1 per cent and global exports by up to 18.6 per cent in the long term. This is particularly concerning for a small economy like Bangladesh, as smaller nations possess less bargaining power in bilateral negotiations compared to major economies.
Dependence must be reduced
Bangladesh's economic ties are widespread across various nations. The United States is a vital export market for Bangladesh and an important partner in investment, technology, and development cooperation. On the other hand, China is Bangladesh's largest source of imports and a major provider of industrial raw materials, machinery, and infrastructure investment. The European union is also one of Bangladesh's primary trading partners.
In this reality, Bangladesh needs to maintain constructive and mutually beneficial relationships with all countries. At the same time, however, it must diversify its export markets, investment sources, technology, and critical imports. Doing so will reduce over-reliance on any single country or market and expand Bangladesh's room for independent decision-making amid complex geopolitical circumstances.
Middle East crisis is now a matter of economic security
Bangladesh is reliant on the Middle East for imported energy. At the same time, Bangladesh’s labour market and remittance flows are deeply linked with the Gulf nations. If the conflict persists, inflation in Bangladesh could rise, fiscal pressure on the government could grow due to energy subsidies, import costs might escalate, and both exports and remittances could be adversely affected.
Therefore, energy security must be viewed as a vital component of economic security. In the short term, Bangladesh needs to diversify its energy import sources and agreements. In the medium term, it must boost domestic gas exploration, expand renewable energy, improve energy efficiency, enhance regional power trade, and increase investment in transmission infrastructure. In the long term, the ultimate goal should be to reduce over-reliance on imported energy.
Shifts in global supply chains
The COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, instability in the Middle East, and the escalating strategic competition between the US and China have exposed just how vulnerable supply chains are when dependent on a handful of countries. As a result, multinational corporations are no longer focusing solely on low costs; they are prioritizing supply chain security and stability.
Since readymade garments are Bangladesh's main export sector, the green transition should not be viewed merely as environmental protection; it must also be seen as a strategy to maintain export and industrial competitiveness
Many enterprises are adopting a "China Plus One" strategy, maintaining operations in China while establishing production bases in other countries. Others are diversifying their supply chains across multiple nations so that a disruption at one source does not halt entire production systems.
These changes could create new opportunities for emerging economies like Bangladesh. However, these opportunities will not come automatically. Although global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) grew by 6 per cent in 2025 to reach $1.6 trillion, more than 80 per cent of it flowed to the top 20 destinations. Therefore, Bangladesh must enhance its competitiveness to attract investment.
Technology is now also part of economic security
Semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence (AI), cloud infrastructure, data, batteries, telecommunications, and critical minerals are no longer just business matters, they have turned into strategic economic assets. It is neither possible nor necessary for Bangladesh to compete at the absolute top tier across all technological fronts; instead, it needs to build expertise in areas with practical potential. Examples include chip design, testing and packaging, AI capabilities, cybersecurity, data management, and reliable digital infrastructure. Hence, technology policy must now be integrated with industrial policy, trade policy, and economic security.
Climate policy is also becoming trade policy
The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) came into full effect on 1 January 2026. Currently, products such as cement, iron and steel, aluminum, fertilisers, electricity, and hydrogen fall under its scope. Bangladesh’s readymade garments are not yet a primary category covered by it. However, this is no reason for complacency.
A product’s carbon emissions, the use of renewable energy, water management, recyclable manufacturing systems, supply chain traceability, and environmental standards will become increasingly vital for international market competitiveness in the future. Since readymade garments are Bangladesh's main export sector, the green transition should not be viewed merely as environmental protection; it must also be seen as a strategy to maintain export and industrial competitiveness.
Preparations for LDC graduation
Amid these global shifts, Bangladesh is scheduled to graduate from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category on 24 November 2026. Bangladesh has applied for an extension to its preparation timeline. The UN Committee for Development Policy has indicated that the General Assembly may consider granting an extension if Bangladesh makes significant progress in addressing its existing structural vulnerabilities. In July 2026, ECOSOC also recommended considering the matter prior to 24 November.
Whether the graduation happens in November or an extension is granted, Bangladesh has no room to pause its preparations. In the future, the country will have to navigate stricter rules of origin, labor and environmental standards, intellectual property requirements, and a competitive market environment. Therefore, diversifying export products, boosting productivity, negotiating new trade agreements, and enhancing technological capabilities are urgent priorities.
The path ahead for Bangladesh
In a changing world order, Bangladesh's primary objective should be to strengthen its capacity to make independent decisions aligned with its own economic interests, even amidst global uncertainties. Achieving this requires proactive and visionary policies, robust institutions, effective economic diplomacy, and a resilient, diversified domestic economy.
Ultimately, the benchmark of Bangladesh's success will be how well it can maintain economic stability despite global volatility, generate employment, boost public income and prosperity, and improve living standards.
* Dr. Fahmida Khatun is an economist, author, and distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD)
Opinions expressed are the author's own.