There has been an extensive analysis of Chhatra Shibir’s landslide victory in the Dhaka University Central Students' Union (DUCSU) election. Different people are interpreting the results from different angles — guided by personal judgment, political beliefs, positions, or even wishful thinking. Some will accept these interpretations, others won’t. There’s unlikely to be any universally accepted explanation. These debates will continue.
There’s ongoing debate about whether control over DUCSU has any real influence on national politics. However, national politics has always taken DUCSU seriously — which is why force and manipulation have often been involved. Whether through ballot box snatching (as in the 1973 election) or pre-filled ballots (as alleged in the 2019 election), the ruling parties have tried to control it. When a ruling party feels it cannot win DUCSU, it simply avoids holding the election.
This year’s DUCSU election took place under an interim government, following a bloody mass uprising and in a highly changed political atmosphere. While Bangladesh has faced many political crises over the years, few compare in scale to the July uprising or the ousting of Sheikh Hasina. Just a year after those events, the DUCSU election showed that traditional political calculations no longer apply.
Historically, Shibir's activities were banned at Dhaka University under every regime, with other student organisations jointly enforcing that ban. But over the past 15 years, developments unfolded out of public view. It was only around the July uprising that the public learned Shibir members had been working covertly within Chhatra League (now banned). As such, Shibir’s open presence at Dhaka University is barely a year old, making their landslide victory all the more unexpected to many.
Historically, Shibir's activities were banned at Dhaka University under every regime, with other student organisations jointly enforcing that ban. But over the past 15 years, developments unfolded out of public view. It was only around the July uprising that the public learned Shibir members had been working covertly within Chhatra League (now banned). As such, Shibir’s open presence at Dhaka University is barely a year old, making their landslide victory all the more unexpected to many.
Over the past 15 years, Bangladesh’s electoral system has deteriorated. With one-sided elections and pre-filled ballot boxes, there has been no real opportunity to gauge the public’s support for different political parties. Most of our assumptions about vote shares are still based on data from 2008 or earlier. In the meantime, a massive new group of first-time voters has emerged, most of whom have never voted before. Who they will support is largely unknown.
There was once a demand for holding local elections — at various levels — before national elections, as a way to test party popularity. But political consensus was never reached on that. Now, with the country heading toward a national election — scheduled for early February next year, according to the interim government — only a few university student union elections are being held in the meantime. DUCSU has been completed, JUCSU (Jahangirnagar) was held on Thursday, and RUCSU (Rajshahi) and CUCSU (Chittagong) are still pending. Though limited in scope, these elections can be seen as testing grounds for party support, political strength, and organisational capacity — and among them, DUCSU naturally carries the most weight.
Yesterday, Prothom Alo ran the headline: "DUCSU Results Leave BNP Embarrassed, Jamaat Elated". But will the DUCSU outcome remain confined to just embarrassment and celebration for these two parties? Or will it reshape national political calculations — especially as the country moves closer to its next general election?
We know that this election is taking place under an interim government in the wake of a mass uprising and under a special political situation. Even now, uncertainty about the election persists. The expected reforms following the uprising or the “July Charter” are still a point of disagreement among political parties. The real question now is: how much the DUCSU results will influence the strategies and thinking of BNP and Jamaat. Any shift in the political or strategic position of these two parties will inevitably affect the broader political landscape.
As mentioned earlier, DUCSU's results — particularly Islami Chhatra Shibir’s significant victory — have sparked much analysis. Discussions include how the organisation shifted its strategy, from candidate nomination to projecting a more inclusive and moderate image, and the various welfare initiatives they presented to students. Many believe these tactics worked in their favour. Notably, we even saw elected members from Shibir’s DUCSU panel visiting the Rayerbazar Martyred Intellectuals’ Memorial to offer prayers — a symbolic gesture. This raises the question: Will Jamaat also adopt such strategies ahead of the national election? Will there be any changes in their stance on the Liberation War or women’s rights?
As for Chhatra Dal’s defeat, many point to their lack of preparation, organisational weakness, and also issues with their public image. In Bangladeshi student politics, Chhatra League and Chhatra Dal have historically been the two dominant forces. However, over the past 15 years, Chhatra League’s crimes, abuses, and oppression at Dhaka University went to extreme levels. Naturally, students do not want to see a return to that dark period. Yet, they may not have trusted Chhatra Dal either — partly due to its own troubled history. Moreover, after 5 August 2024, multiple allegations of extortion and territorial control have been raised against members of Chhatra Dal and other BNP-affiliated groups — another likely reason students distanced themselves from the group. Taking all of this into account, many students seem to have opted for Shibir as an alternative in the DUCSU election.
That said, Shibir’s DUCSU victory may or may not directly benefit Jamaat in national or electoral politics. One consequence of their win is that it has alerted rival parties, giving them a chance to prepare. A major party like BNP is unlikely to underestimate Jamaat’s strength now. They will surely reassess and adopt more calculated strategies to deal with them.
In conclusion, it is evident that the DUCSU election results could influence the national election in multiple ways.
If these same dynamics play out in national politics, it could spell trouble for BNP. Only about five months remain until the national election, and it’s unclear how much the party can reform or reposition itself in that time. At the local level, misconduct by BNP leaders and activists has alienated potential voters. Despite visible initiatives, BNP has failed to control or correct these elements over the past year. In light of the DUCSU results, it’s fair to say that any overconfidence within BNP — assuming they will naturally win the upcoming election as a major party — could prove self-destructive.
Many who are strongly opposed to Jamaat and Shibir politically feel that anti-Shibir alliances should have been formed in DUCSU to block their rise. This experience may influence how alliances are built for the national election. The informal discussions between parties about forming electoral coalitions will certainly take on a new dimension after the DUCSU outcome. Also, the poor performance of NCP’s student wing in DUCSU could weaken their bargaining power in national politics.
That said, Shibir’s DUCSU victory may or may not directly benefit Jamaat in national or electoral politics. One consequence of their win is that it has alerted rival parties, giving them a chance to prepare. A major party like BNP is unlikely to underestimate Jamaat’s strength now. They will surely reassess and adopt more calculated strategies to deal with them.
In conclusion, it is evident that the DUCSU election results could influence the national election in multiple ways.
*Views expressed in the article are of the author's own
*AKM Zakaria is deputy editor at Prothom Alo
He can be reached at [email protected]