Newly installed government of Bangladesh faces a fast-evolving global situation and an intricately complex geopolitical equation. On top of this is an urgent challenge of building a partnership of trust, equity, fairness and mutual dignity with India, its big and powerful neighbour.
Debate in the Parliament over ordinances and constitutional amendments passed by the interim government is becoming intense, making workable consensus building on national interests and foreign policy challenges daunting. When the new government has just set its attention on policy formulation to realise its priorities, the attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel have thrown up unprecedented level of uncertainties and tensions, adding to woes on energy, food security and inflation for the economy already struggling since the COVID pandemic.
The war, started by the US-Israel combine without adequate consultation with their traditional allies, is fast sharpening divergences among the major players. Most traditional allies of the US are manifestly hesitant to be directly involved in the war that portends new alignment and polarisation. Iran’s response with new armaments and technologies strongly suggests material and technological support from opposing super and major powers, creating implications for countries far and wide including Bangladesh.
In Bangladesh’s neighbourhood, political upheaval in Nepal and Sri Lanka, driven by Gen-Z activism and popular mass disapproval have created new uncertainties. Most importantly, armed conflict between India and Pakistan last year and the ongoing clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan have been fueling regional instability.
For restoring trust, security, territorial integrity and non-intervention in internal matters will have to be assured from both sides. It is imperative to enhance meaningful communication on issues concerning national security in general and stability in the Northeast and the Chittagong Hill Tracts in particular.
In such a turbulent and complex global and regional situation, safeguarding national interests has become critical for Bangladesh while maintaining respectful and balanced relations with major regional and global players. Bangladesh has been walking a tight rope in the recent years to maintain a balance in her relations with China- the Asian super power and India- the major power and dominant neighbour as well as with the US. The balancing act and the hedging strategy have become even more daunting given the recent signing of the Agreement on Retaliatory Tariff with the US in February this year that transcends the boundaries of trade.
Undeniably, over the past decade, a significant section of people in Bangladesh have become increasingly frustrated and dissatisfied with India. In the initial years of the past Awami League regime, agreements on land boundary, adverse possessed land and exchange of enclaves, and the import of electricity from India through the Baharampur-Bheramara interconnection were appreciated as generally fair, ensuring mutual benefits. The settlement of maritime dispute through international arbitration has been a major landmark of good neighbourliness. These were evidences of growing mutual trust and addressing mutual interests, although a major sensitive issue of sharing of waters from the Teesta River remained unresolved.
However, India has lost confidence of overwhelming majority of Bangladeshis for its unqualified backing of the Awami League as it proceeded with the flawed election of 2014, widely known for not being free, fair and participatory. Subsequent developments, including transit agreement, access to Bangladesh ports, the Adani power deal etc. were vastly criticised as imbalanced. India’s continued support to the ruling Awami League in the 2018 and 2024 elections further dented its image in Bangladesh.
Bangladeshis have also been observing with dismay a growing tendency in India to make Bangladesh an issue for domestic politics. Bangladeshis resent the unjustified labeling of Bengali-speaking populations as illegal migrants. They are disappointed with the enthusiasm for the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam with the aim to exclude even bonafide Bengali speaking Indian citizens as ‘foreigners. Additionally, the tendency to portray any incidents in Bangladesh involving Hindus as religious persecution fuels mistrust. Such tendencies may intensify further ahead of the forthcoming state elections in Assam and West Bengal.
Hence, a durable partnership cannot be built without restoring trust and treating the other with respect, fairness and equity. The subregion’s fate is intertwined. All countries ought to recognise India’s scientific and technological advancement and the depth of its financial market. India on its part should not ignore its neighbourhood as it seeks a global role. Sectoral bilateral arrangements are likely to be more effective if conceived to avail complementarities and to creating regional common good through sub-regional and regional cooperation.
In the context of restoring trust and meaningful bilateral cooperation, the Indian side ought to appreciate the underlying reasons for the mass uprising of July 2024 and to respect aspirations of Bangladeshis. On the Bangladesh side, the interim government was unfortunately sucked into unnecessary anti-India rhetoric that hindered serious reflections on a just and fair new normal for bilateral relations. Statements like- Bangladesh is the guardian of the Bay of Bengal and the landlocked North-east can have access to the Bay only through Bangladesh at a time of extreme unease, regardless of their merit or their symbolism, have created deep consternation in India.
Trust deficit led to obstructive reciprocal measures. Some restrictions on export of Bangladeshi goods at land customs stations still persist. Despite these challenges, bilateral trade in the last year maintained healthy growth that signifies the depth of economic interdependence and complementarities between the two countries. Luckily, calls for revisiting bilateral agreements largely remained rhetorical.
But social media remains livid and continues to amplify communal and ethnic divisions. Reports of Bangladeshi tourists being denied accommodation in Indian hotels, reluctance to treat Bangladeshi patients in hospitals, and refusal to serve Bangladeshi customers in Indian shops were widespread. Incidents such as the vandalism of a Bangladesh stall at a university in Pune and disrespect toward its national flag, without any visible intervention from the relevant authorities, led to hurt feeling. The incident involving the participation of a Bangladeshi cricketer in the Indian Premier League (IPL) reflects underlying trust deficit and populist decision-making.
The presence of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and several Awami League leaders in India has emerged as an extremely sensitive issue. There appears to be an unarticulated expectation from India of the present Government for taking a less antagonistic approach towards them. Persistence on this will give credence to past Indian involvement in Bangladesh politics and governance. This matter of high sensitivity merits to be handled with extreme care and sagacity.
Allegations of India’s connection to the turmoil in 2007 as well as external involvement in the Peellkhana mutiny, in which 57 army officers were brutally killed, have led to serious public unease in Bangladesh. Regardless of their authenticity, these accusations generate resentment here. One may recollect how strongly India articulated her disapproval on Anup Chetia’s enjoying a free space inside Bangladesh and allegations surrounding the ten-truck arms haul. Both countries must find ways to address concerns of the other and provide concrete assurances on not repeating these unsavory past.
India’s stance on the Rohingya issue has not been sagacious and fair. Bangladesh finds it difficult to understand India’s acceptance of the Myanmarese narrative of calling the Rohingya illegal immigrant and disregarding the issue as a matter of so-called Islamic extremism. Burma was part of the British India till 1935 and India has all census records that evidence to their evolution as a distinct community in Arakan and their firm settled status more than a century back. Bangladesh expected India to take an evidence-based position on the Rohingya crisis.
It is high time to rebuild trust for developing a just partnership and to refocus on key areas of bilateral cooperation. That will however be difficult if India ignores the imperfections and imbalances of the past and remains fixated on a quick mechanical return to the pre-July 2024 approach towards Bangladesh.
For restoring trust, security, territorial integrity and non-intervention in internal matters will have to be assured from both sides. It is imperative to enhance meaningful communication on issues concerning national security in general and stability in the Northeast and the Chittagong Hill Tracts in particular. Cooperation on matters of public security including drug trafficking, human trafficking, arms smuggling, and illegal border crossings is a prerequisite. Border management must be effective and humane as it is generally the innocent civilians of the bordering areas, rather than the criminals, who get killed. Addressing this straightaway could significantly enhance India’s image.
Bangladesh and India are economically interdependent. There exist all kinds of complementarities that need to be realised for mutual benefits. There is immense scope to strengthen value chains and supply management systems to enhance comparative advantages, regardless of their economic linkages with other major trade partners.
Prioritising people-centric issues in bilateral discussions reflects diplomatic sagacity and maturity. Fair water-sharing is a key interest of the people. Renewing the Ganges Water Treaty and equitably resolving water-sharing of common rivers such as the Teesta could significantly alter public perceptions and bring them closer. Keeping healthcare and education above politics and simplifying visa processing would further strengthen people-to-people ties.
Prioritising people-centric issues in bilateral discussions reflects diplomatic sagacity and maturity. Fair water-sharing is a key interest of the people. Renewing the Ganges Water Treaty and equitably resolving water-sharing of common rivers such as the Teesta could significantly alter public perceptions and bring them closer. Keeping healthcare and education above politics and simplifying visa processing would further strengthen people-to-people ties.
Notably, neighbouring regions of Bangladesh such as Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, and the Northeast are largely agrarian. Logically, agriculture is a shared priority and is at the core of interests of people of this sub-region. Free flow of food and agricultural products is an essential condition to show good neighbourliness. Agricultural inputs and implements greatly influence food security and help sustain rural economies.
There is no alternative to strengthening sub-regional and regional cooperation, whether under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) or the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). All stakeholders ought to remain open to a serious dialogue for bringing in necessary adjustments in the mandates and functioning of these mechanisms as well as for creating additional regional arrangements, if so needed.
The world today is marked by uncertainty, with each country prioritising its own national interests and defining national security. It is easy to give in to the tendencies of extreme nationalism and religious intolerance that sucks societies into a negative spiral. Bangladesh and India must overcome this propensities and work towards bilateral and regional common good for a peaceful neighbourhood.
Restoring trust and fraternity between our peoples must be stressed for laying the foundation of a just and dignified partnership. The countries must avoid using media to peddle imaginary, non-existent problems for diplomatic settling of scores, and rather encourage media to focus on matters directly related to peace, progress, existential threats as well as developments that directly impact life and livelihood.
In this context, the upcoming visit of Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman to India presents an important opportunity. A preliminary candid exchange of views on interests and confidence building measures can be the first steps towards good neighbourliness. Subsequent engagements ought to review past inadequacies and focus on matters on mutual respect, trust and shared benefits. It is hoped that the two neighbours, despite inherent asymmetry, will seek to find common good and work towards an approach to align and balance interests of their peoples, private sectors and economies, and states. People want friendship and deserve peace, stability and progress. This reality and compulsion must guide the future trajectory of Bangladesh–India relations.
#Mohammad Sufiur Rahman is former ambassador and senior research fellow, North South University.