Exploring a new horizon in diplomatic strategy

The hard-earned remittances of expatriates are the driving force of the country's economy.Symbolic image: AI/Prothom Alo

In Doha’s blistering 40°degrees Celsius, Mohammad Rahim stands in an endless queue outside the Bangladesh embassy. Beads of sweat trickle down his weary forehead. His throat is parched from thirst. Yet, he doesn’t move an inch from the harsh reality of waiting. He needs a Machine Readable Passport (MRP). This is his last chance. Hundreds of migrant workers like him continue moving forward slowly, braving the scorching sun. They are not losing their patience.

These hardworking individuals, who left their homes behind, once dared to dream of political change in their homeland and risked imprisonment protesting against autocratic rule. The billions of dollars they send back in remittances have become the driving force in pulling a once-fallen economy back from the edge of ruin. Rahim and millions of Bangladeshis like him are watching closely, hoping that this wave of change will bring some positive impact to the harsh realities of their lives abroad.

Attempting to meet 21st-century aspirations with a 20th-century framework is a mismatch. What’s needed is a fundamental transformation in the structure of diplomatic governance. How can the state ensure protection for its countless citizens abroad, boost trade, and expand its influence on the global stage? How will China's Belt and Road Initiative, the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, and India’s Act East Policy shape a Bay of Bengal region marked by peace and prosperity amid the complex geopolitics at play? These are questions that demand urgent debate and discussion.

Data-driven rearrangement

At the same time, it is urgent to determine the importance and necessity of Bangladesh’s diplomatic position. A clear and equitable evaluation system may be adopted—alongside other considerations—to determine the importance of diplomatic position.

For example, such an evaluation system could be developed based on five key indicators: Political relations (30pc) – This includes the depth and strategic significance of bilateral relationships. Trade (25pc) – Current economic transactions and future trade potential. Diaspora size (20pc) – The number and importance of Bangladeshi nationals and individuals of Bangladeshi origin. Security relevance (15pc) – Potential security risks and the need for protective engagement. Multilateral engagement (10pc) – The level of active participation in international organisations and forums.

Based on these five indicators, each current or potential diplomatic mission would receive a score between 0 and 1: Missions scoring 0.7 or higher would qualify for establishing a full-fledged embassy. Missions with a score between 0.4 and 0.7 would be suitable for consulate-level representation. Missions scoring below 0.4 would be managed by a non-resident ambassador from a nearby embassy.

This kind of objective and data-driven approach would enable Bangladesh to make informed and rational decisions regarding the establishment, expansion, and restructuring of its diplomatic missions, prioritising national interest above all.

Strategic reorganisation

The geopolitical importance of the Bay of Bengal is steadily increasing. While the United States remains engaged in intense trade tensions with China, it views Bangladesh—located in the Bay of Bengal region—as a significant strategic partner. At the same time, China continues to finance infrastructure projects in Bangladesh under its Belt and Road Initiative.

Amid this competition between global powers, along with ongoing friction with neighboring India and sensitive issues like the Rohingya crisis and ethnic conflicts in Myanmar, Bangladesh must strengthen its diplomatic relations effectively—while safeguarding its own national interests.

To provide improved services for approximately 8 million Bangladeshi migrant workers, there is an urgent need to expand diplomatic activities in Riyadh, Dubai, Muscat, and Doha. At the same time, the consolidation of diplomatic missions within the Gulf region could enhance efficiency.

Much of the hardship faced by migrant workers originates from corruption in the migration process, visa-related harassment, and false promises about jobs and wages. Solutions to these issues must begin in Dhaka. App-based consular services are now essential to meet modern demands.

Looking toward the future, Bangladesh must also take into account the emerging global economic landscape. The country currently engages in nearly USD 120 billion in annual trade, and around 12 million Bangladeshis live abroad. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the future of global labour markets, Bangladesh must aim to expand its trade capacity to exceed USD 175 billion to ensure long-term economic resilience.

A well-thought-out policy is necessary to strengthen relations with European countries. For example, the missions in Brussels, home to the headquarters of the European Union, and Berlin, a major economic centre, could be expanded. At the same time, other diplomatic missions in Europe could be consolidated for greater efficiency.

To enhance engagement with D-8 member countries, Bangladesh’s embassy in Turkey must take on a more active role. Every neighboring country demands significant attention, not only those in South Asia, but also those in the broader ASEAN region, which is increasingly becoming geopolitically and economically important. Securing ASEAN membership is crucial for unlocking these regional opportunities.

Bangladesh represents a consumer market of 170 million people, while ASEAN is a $3 trillion economic bloc. A large number of Bangladeshi migrants are employed in Malaysia and Singapore. As aging populations grow rapidly in ASEAN and East Asia, Bangladesh—with over 45 million people aged between 15 and 29—offers a strong demographic advantage. ASEAN membership would create mutual opportunities for both Bangladesh and the bloc.

Targeted strategies are needed for missions in Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam to ensure more effective regional engagement.

In Africa, diplomatic presence could also be restructured based on emerging importance. Special attention should be given to connecting with the African Union hub, key trade gateways, and centres in Francophone Africa that hold growing strategic relevance.

Integrated anagement framework

What is needed is an integrated framework and a whole of 'government-based strategy'. The success of the foreign ministry depends not only on its own efforts but also on the coordination with other ministries. Based on a 'one country, one strategy' policy, diplomacy should not be carried out by the foreign ministry alone. Rather, an integrated diplomatic framework must include relevant ministries such as finance, commerce, expatriates' welfare, defence, industry, planning, agriculture, and health.

A national diplomatic coordination council, led by the foreign minister and comprising representatives from these key ministries, should meet monthly to determine strategic priorities, set action plans, and resolve inter-ministerial conflicts.

In addition to drafting regulations for implementing the integrated strategy, the public administration should offer training to appointed officials to foster institutional empathy and collaboration. Given the changing global context, it is crucial to optimise limited diplomatic resources both in Dhaka and across foreign missions. This calls for a major restructuring of the current wings of the foreign ministry and the introduction of a robust performance management framework.

All diplomatic activities should be evaluated every six months using a score-based system aligned with key performance indicators. Based on the evaluation, a talent optimisation approach can be adopted. In light of strategic shifts, new units—such as a strategic analysis unit—may also be established.

To achieve the desired level of national prosperity, Bangladesh must significantly accelerate its diplomatic efforts. This also necessitates a revision of the mission-level budget allocation framework, with increased staffing and financial resources directed toward strategically important missions.

Embassies are symbols of state sovereignty. Therefore, under the leadership of the ambassador, each mission should establish an integrated country team, and a digital dashboard should be introduced to ensure real-time coordination across ministries.

To make diplomatic governance effective, integrated, and future-oriented, qualitative reforms are essential.

*Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir is Professor, Department of Development Studies, University of Dhaka.

*The views in this article is of the writer's own.