Is BNP stepping into trouble?

Some want the election to be held, some do not. Some want it early, some want it later. Those who see the possibility of winning, every day urge for the election to be held soon. Those who see little chance of winning are even more vocal. The arguments and altercations continue.

"Election" is the key word of present times, with various quarters emerging to this end. Some want the election to be held, some do not. Some want it early, some want it later. Those who see the possibility of winning, every day urge for the election to be held soon. Those who see little chance of winning are even more vocal. The arguments and altercations continue.

News is making rounds in the political arena that the youth of Students against Discrimination movement are all set to launch a political party. This has made some of the older parties sit up and take notice. They do not seem too pleased about the matter. They are hardly happy about a new entrant on their turf.

The interim government at the helm presently came into power through the students. There are three of these students in the council of advisors. The question about conflict of interest naturally arises. BNP has not taken the matter of anyone forming a party while remaining in government very easily. They do not feel that the government is neutral. They say, if this happens, they will demand for elections under a neutral caretaker government.
The political parties in this country have two faces. When in power they speak in one way, and when out of power they speak in another way. This has been going on since the independence of Bangladesh.

We recall that the constitution of Bangladesh was adopted on 4 November 1972 by the national assembly. Prime minister Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and his cabinet resigned. The national assembly was dissolved. But there was no vacuum. A new cabinet was formed again, led by Sheikh Mujib. All the ministers were from Awami League. On 7 March 1973 the first election of independent Bangladesh was held. The ministers remained in office and contested in the polls. In many areas there was violence before and after the voting and the counting of the votes was rigged.

In the year 1980 all parties were vocal in the demand for elections under a neutral caretaker government. BNP declared that it would not take part in elections under Ershad's military government in 1986 and they boycotted the election. In the election held in 1991 under Justice Shahabuddin Ahmed's neutral caretaker government, BNP won the majority, and with written support of Jamaat-e-Islami, it formed the government. Khaleda Zia became the first woman prime minister of Bangladesh.

She was also the first prime minister in the history of the country to win in a free, fair and impartial election. This is certainly a matter of pride for BNP. Yet they opposed holding the next election under a neutral government and set a bad precedent by holding a one-sided election in February 1996. That government lasted for two months. They were formed to introduce a bill for a caretaker government in parliament and a fresh election was held. Awami League won with a majority and support from Jatiya Party and JSD (Rab). Sheikh Hasina became prime minister.

In politics, who wants the number of political opponents to increase? BNP will not want to see a new axis of power in the political field. A vacuum prevails now and this is the best opportunity for them.

Things continued in this matter. In 2001 elections were held under a caretaker government and BNP came to power again. It must be noted that when the election is not held under a party government, the same party cannot repeatedly come to power. When the election is held under a neutral caretaker government, there is more chance of the opposition party winning. Those who want to remain in power permanently do not like this system. And thus began the distortion of the caretaker government system in order to ensure 100 per cent chance of victory.
In 2006-07 BNP wanted to hold an election under the semblance of a caretaker government with their partisan president Iajuddin Ahmad at the helm. This was thwarted by 1/11. I still believe that if BNP had not tried to manipulate the polls, 1/11 would not have happened. Nothing happens automatically. There is always some context. BNP itself created grounds for 1/11. Their "conspiracy" was overtaken by the "conspiracy" of much more seasoned players.

Awami League came to power again in 2008 and saw that this was a fun game! They abolished the caretaker system from the constitution. So now no one had the scope of defeating them in the election anymore. But it was they themselves who created the grounds for their own downfall. We saw the consequences of this on 5 August 2024. But that is not the end.

Awami League had fled. Their burden of sin is so heavy, they have no scope to justify themselves. They now have resorted to their patron India. Almost all political parties in India are supporting Awami League because they do not want to "lose" this country. Awami League is not interested in the country, they are interested in power.

There is uncertainty over when the election will be held. Things have been clouded by contradictory statements of the government and other political quarters. BNP is a large party. With Awami League having slinked away into a hole, they have good grip of the field. They are impatient about the election. They have waited for 18 years. How much longer? And now a new opponent had emerged. If the youth form a new political party, they may pose as a challenge to BNP. There are allegations that the interim government is trying to form a "King's Party" so they can remain in power for an extended period of time.

This brings another matter to mind. Many are vocal at present about US president Trump's immigration policy. Trump represents the Americans who do not want new migrants. It is ironic, because almost everyone in that country is a migrant. For five hundred years most of them have come from Europe. They are of the Anglo-Saxon race. In other words, the old migrants don't want new migrants. BNP leaders' reservations about a "King's Party" is a lot on those lines.

It was Field Marshal Mohammad Ayub Khan who first introduced the process of using state power to go power in Pakistan. In Bangladesh, General Ziaur Rahman first used that formula. And on continuation, General Hussain Muhammad Ershad did the same. At one point of the 1/11 stint, with the help of DGFI, General Moeen U Ahmed tried to do some such thing with the political pariah Ferdous Ahmed Qureshi or General Syed Muhammad Ibrahim. But that fizzled out.    

BNP is aware of its roots. But by means of its anti-Ershad movement led by Khaleda Zia, it successfully achieved the identity of a political party. They are unwilling to see another opponent emerge using a similar formula. Politics is not a matter of welfare. A political party is not Anjuman-e-Mufidul Islam or any such welfare organisation.

In politics, who wants the number of political opponents to increase? BNP will not want to see a new axis of power in the political field. A vacuum prevails now and this is the best opportunity for them. As days pass, things get cloudier. BNP's popularity will wane.

Politics is like a relay race. At a local level under Awami League leadership, crime and corruption had set in at a local level and now with them out of the way, the baton in is the hand of BNP men. Clashes, grabbing of land and businesses, extortion, all go on in full swing. Fingers are pointing towards BNP men. They are even clashing among themselves to gain an upper hand in various areas.

All the people have turned away from Awami League  other than a handful of underground or expatriate Facebookers and YouTubers. They may place BNP on the same status. This could pose as a problem for BNP. And now there is this new "irritant" of the youth "planning" to make a political party. Is BNP stepping into trouble?

* Mohiuddin Ahmad is a writer and researcher
* This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir