Caption: After the announcement of the assembly election results, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the BJP’s central office in New Delhi on Monday. 4 May 2026 taken from Narendra Modi’s Facebook page.
Upon arriving in West Bengal ahead of the elections, it did not take long to sense the anti-incumbency sentiment that had been flowing silently throughout the state.
What surprised me was the intense hostility toward Mamata among upper- and middle-class Bengali Hindu families. Yet, just two years ago, many of them had voted for the Trinamool Congress. So what changed overnight that made them hanker for Mamata’s departure?
During visits to both the cities and the districts, it became clear that the primary reasons for their disillusionment were rampant corruption, extreme disorder, the high-handedness and arrogance of local leaders, and the absence of the rule of law. The common people had looked toward her for remedies, but were disappointed by her indifference and silence.
The second reason is the division between Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee.
With the “aunt and nephew” becoming parallel centers of power, a deep sense of helplessness emerged within both the party and society. Leaders at all levels began to feel disoriented. Abhishek is a reformist, and for him, the old leaders are a burden. Mamata, on the other hand, is unwilling to part ways with the old guard.
The organisation ‘IPAC’, founded by Prashant Kishor, was one of the key architects of Mamata’s victory in 2021. Abhishek turned that organisation into the party’s “eyes and ears.” As a result, Mamata’s direct communication with grassroots party workers and leaders was cut off.
IPAC effectively became the deciding authority. Caught in the tension between the aunt and nephew, the party began to struggle.
BJP took advantage of this situation and went all out.
The Election Commission’s perceived over-activity also gave a kind of hope to the disillusioned electorate. They began to feel that if anyone could bring change, it would be this force. Along with this, there was also the pull of Hindutva sentiment. In BJP’s campaign, Mamata was even portrayed as a “saviour” of Muslims.
The question is, during nationwide political observation, why was there no hint of this strong wave of change? Why did no one anticipate Mamata’s collapse? Why could no one predict that the BJP was heading toward a two-thirds majority that would overwhelm the Trinamool Congress? The answer is simple: there were no such indications clearly visible in the political developments at the time.
The last election in the state was held in 2024—the Lok Sabha polls. Corruption, dominance, chaos, and helplessness were still present. Despite that, Mamata Banerjee reduced the BJP’s seats from 18 to 12 in that election. Even then, there was no clear reflection of an intense desire for change.
Compare this situation once with the fall of the Left Front in 2011. In the 2008 panchayat elections, Mamata had taken away two zilla parishads from the Left Front. The Trinamool Congress was also in a position to win in six more. In the following year’s Lok Sabha elections, the Trinamool Congress and its allies won 27 out of 42 seats in the state, leaving the Left Front with just 15. In 2010, Trinamool captured a series of municipalities, including Kolkata. By 2011, the fall of the Left Front had long been foreseeable. The rise of Trinamool and its step-by-step takeover of power also made that clear.
But this time, not even a trace of such signals was visible. There was no indication whatsoever of an impending collapse. Last year, by-elections were held in 10 assembly constituencies—all of which were won by Trinamool. Despite institutional anti-incumbency, Mamata believed she would overcome all obstacles with strong support from Muslims, women, and the poor, along with a section of Hindu voters. She also gambled that the hardships and harassment caused by the SIR process would revive Bengali identity sentiment and help her secure victory. Her additional confidence lay in organisational strength.
It is now clear that she could not anticipate that, along with the removal of nearly one crore voters’ names, the SIR process would make people fearless, that everyone would be able to cast their vote freely, that the state police and administration would not stand by the ruling party, and that central government personnel would be deployed in all aspects of voting and counting. By the time she realized this, the BJP and the Election Commission had already turned the contest into a battle between Trinamool and the state itself.
Mamata did not have the capacity to counter this. In her final attempt, she tried to frame the election as Bengalis versus outsiders, and to stir Bengali identity sentiment. But Bengalis, with their experience of five years of misrule, were not swayed by it.
Under Narendra Modi’s leadership, a one-party rule is set to be established in West Bengal and Delhi
As a result, after Anga (Bihar) and Kalinga (Odisha), Bengal too has, for the first time, come under BJP dominance. Except for Jharkhand, the entire northeastern region has effectively come under BJP control.
Over the past 12 years, one after another, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav, and Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh have been politically defeated; after Lalu Prasad and Tejashwi, even Nitish Kumar in Bihar has been brought under Narendra Modi’s sway. In Odisha, after rendering Naveen Patnaik politically irrelevant, he has now also freed West Bengal from Mamata Banerjee’s stronghold.
From Tripura, Manik Sarkar was already forced to step aside earlier. Now in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, Pinarayi Vijayan and MK Stalin are also weakening. In Maharashtra, Sharad Pawar is a fading political force, and Uddhav Thackeray has been cornered and weakened.
At the national level, the only remaining challenger and competitor to Narendra Modi is the Congress leadership—Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, and Priyanka Gandhi.
Half a century later, under Narendra Modi’s leadership, a one-party rule is set to be established in West Bengal and Delhi. For 51 years, the direction of West Bengal’s politics had been defined by opposition to the Centre. Promising a “double-engine government,” Modi has pledged to bring Shyama Prasad Mukherjee’s birthplace to the forefront of development.
He has also stated that West Bengal will be transformed into an industrially developed state, like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka.
From a life dependent on welfare allowances, people in Bengal may now begin to dream of a “better life.” However, first of all, Modi will have to remove that unwanted burden—Mamata Banerjee—which had made the state stagnant and unpopular. If, in the name of change, the old returns in a new form, the people of Bengal will not spare it either.
For the first time, the BJP has effectively encircled Bangladesh. We have sensed how strong Bangladesh’s interest has been in this election over the past fortnight—acquaintances have been calling daily to inquire about updates. If, in pursuit of domestic political gain, the BJP intensifies its rhetoric of identifying and pushing back “infiltrators” and Rohingyas, the impact on bilateral relations can be easily ascertained.
But is there no reason for optimism either? Since 2011, the Teesta water-sharing agreement has remained elusive. Both Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi, citing the federal structure of India, repeatedly stepped back from signing the agreement, taking Mamata Banerjee’s opposition into account and referring to the Centre’s helplessness. Now, with the same party in power in both Kolkata and Delhi, that excuse can no longer be sustained.
North Bengal is also now firmly under BJP control. It should be remembered that during the Manmohan Singh government, due to opposition from BJP leaders in Assam, the land boundary agreement with Bangladesh could not be signed. After becoming Prime Minister, Modi set aside those objections and signed the agreement. If he plays a similar role in the long-pending Teesta agreement, the history of bilateral relations may be written differently.
The BJP’s victory in Bengal has dismantled the “Didi-Modi understanding” theory ("Didi" referring to Mamata). To remain politically relevant, Mamata Banerjee will now have to align with the Congress. The alliance politics under Rahul Gandhi—whom she has not accepted as a leader within the INDIA bloc—may become the only support for the once “free-spirited” Mamata.
* Soumya Bandypadhyay, New Delhi correspondent, Prothom Alo
* Opinion is the author’s own.