Have risks increased along with Bangladesh’s importance in geopolitics?

Bangladesh’s economy is under pressure and the government wants to place the blame on Covid and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Critics, however, maintain that it is the rampant corruption and flawed government policies that has exacerbated the situation to this extent. Admittedly, prior to the present predicament, the country had advanced considerably over the past couple of decades, both in an economic and social context. These successes have been acknowledged in various international indexes too.

If the political context is taken into consideration, then many negative aspects of the country over the past decade come forward. There is considerable criticism on this head at home and abroad. Two reprehensible elections took place in this span of time. The quality of democracy plummeted. The state of human rights deteriorated and the government has taken on an authoritarian demeanour.

No matter what the economic or political situation may be, the fact remains that Bangladesh’s importance is growing in the international scenario. Earlier, only countries of the Pacific region were taken into consideration regarding the US Asia-Pacific security concept. When that concept emerged as the Indo-Pacific strategy, it then encompassed the Indian Ocean region as well. It was from then that Bangladesh’s geopolitical significance began to grow. As China’s role gradually increased in global politics, the US changed its strategy. Many analysts believe that the Indo-Pacific region has become the focal point of global politics because of the competition between the US and China. Both the countries, naturally, want to keep the countries of the region on their respective sides. In that respect, they both want to have Bangladesh on their respective sides too.

Russia’s attack on Ukraine has stepped up Bangladesh’s importance further. This has placed Russia and China on one side, and the US with its western allies on the other. One side wants Bangladesh to oppose the Russian attack on Ukraine. The other side wants Bangladesh to maintain a neutral stance. Bangladesh is vacillating from side to side, attempting to keep things in control. It is unable to ignore the US blockade against Russia. Yet again, it cannot distance itself from Russia either. Have there ever been such statements and actions, followed by counter statements and actions, of the US and Russian embassies in Bangladesh ever before? But that is what we are observing as a result of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

The Australian think-tank Lowy Institute every year publishes the Asian Power Index. In the 2020 index, Bangladesh ranked at 19 among 26 countries. The US is at Number One due to its strong and influential military presence in the region. China, Japan and India follow. Myanmar ranks lower than Bangladesh, at 22.

When any country becomes important to two rival forces or camps, then it gains an upper hand to drive a harder bargain. The geopolitical competition can be used for economic development. Ever since the US came up with its Indo-Pacific Strategy, Bangladesh has been performing a balancing act between the two camps. It has joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Meanwhile the US looks to Bangladesh to join up with its various initiatives such as Quad, IPS, GSOMIA, ACSA and other strategic and military initiatives. Bangladesh has neither said ‘yes’ nor ‘no’ to any of these proposals. In all likelihood, the US will step up pressure in this regard in the days to come. On the other hand, China has made it clear that it will be extremely displeased if Bangladesh joins any of these initiatives. It is obvious that the balancing act will become an extremely difficult task.

There was a time when the US had been more dependent on India to tackle China’s spreading influence in South Asia. Observers feel they have shifted from that stance. Then again, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has also changed many global geopolitical equations. The two arch rivals India and China have sided with Russia and against the US on this issue. Bangladesh, growing in geopolitical importance, will certainly be impacted by these issues.

Bangladesh’s politics is proceeding through uncertain times, with the national elections ahead. Everyone is in the dark about how these elections will be. These are Bangladesh’s internal matters, but geopolitics does not allow these to remain internal. Questions had been raised at home and abroad concerning Bangladesh’s last two elections. India, however, quite openly has supported the government. The US, in effect, accepted India’s stand. At the same time, the government has successfully maintained economic ties with China. There are no indications that India has changed its stance towards Bangladesh. But with the changes in geopolitical equations in this region, the US stance may no longer match that of India.

It is clear that US pressure on Bangladesh will increase on various issues including democracy, free and credible elections, human rights, freedom of expression and so on. The US has already started this process by slapping sanctions on RAB and some of its officials and also by not inviting Bangladesh to the Summit for Democracy.

The sanctions have not been withdrawn. Bangladesh has not been invited to the 2nd Summit for Democracy to take place in March this year. The US state department counselor and advisor to the secretary of state, Derek Chollet, visited Bangladesh recently and once again reiterated the importance of free and fair elections, human rights and tolerance towards different views.

Another important aspect of Derek Chollet’s visit was the Rohingya issue. He spoke of being by Bangladesh’s side in tackling this crisis. Bangladesh did not receive any cooperation from China or India in this issue. Both these countries have clearly sided with Myanmar. In December last year the US passed the Burma Act. It is clear that the US is coming forward with fresh plans regarding Myanmar, which remains in China’s control. The impact of this act will be felt in the geopolitics of this region. The US has taken up this region in all earnest and will clearly continue in its efforts to draw Bangladesh into its own sphere of influence, against China.

In the country’s political scene, the challenge before the government is now to retain power and to ensure a free, credible and inclusive election. If the government considers such an election to be risky, it will have to find ways to sidestep pressure from the US and the western world. If they do so, they will have China by their side.

The Indian foreign secretary on Wednesday visited Bangladesh and reiterated India’s full support for Sheikh Hasina’s leadership. That means it will not be difficult for the government to get India and China, the two superpowers of the region, by its side. And if it can negotiate with the US, fulfill some of its demands and reach some sort of an agreement, then it will manage to salvage all sides.

With the elections ahead, how comfortable is such a situation for Bangladesh and its people? Will an election like that of 2014 or 2018, or a new strategy for another one-sided election, be acceptable to the people? Bangladesh is gaining in geopolitical significance and we can celebrate that. But if geopolitics becomes the sole regulator of the country’s politics and the importance of the people is diminished, that that sure spells disaster.

* AKM Zakaria is deputy editor of Prothom Alo.

* * This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir.