This was a few days ago. Jyoti Rahman, a co-writer of this column, spoke at a roundtable discussion organised by the Bangladesh Research Analysis and Information Network and Voice for Reform.
In the main article, he expressed optimism that, if everything goes well, Bangladesh might reach a trillion-dollar economy by 2035. In the same discussion, Professor Rashed Al Titumir referred to the year 2034 in his article. He also wrote about this in a book he published in 2023.
Recently, the discussion about a trillion-dollar economy has gained renewed momentum. The primary reason is that the BNP has announced a target to reach a trillion-dollar economy by 2034 in its electoral plan. This topic is being trolled on social media.
However, for those concerned with the economy, this issue is far more important than partisan debate. Regardless of political affiliation, it's crucial to discuss the realistic prospects and conditions for achieving this goal for the sake of the country.
According to the latest figures from the International Monetary Fund, Bangladesh's GDP will be approximately $519 billion in 2025. Real growth fell to 3.7 to 3.9 per cent in the fiscal year 2025, which is lower than the previous year. The growth projection for the fiscal year 2026 is set at 4.8 to 5 per cent.
This raises the question of the state's capability. Bangladesh's revenue-to-GDP ratio is currently about 7 per cent, the lowest in South Asia. It is much lower compared to Vietnam or India. Without increasing this ratio to 14-15 per cent, the state cannot invest significantly in infrastructure, education, or health sectors.
If the current pace continues, GDP could surpass $700 billion by 2030. Reaching a trillion dollars from there is not impossible on paper.
Considering changes in inflation and the exchange rate of the Bangladeshi Taka against the dollar, achieving the target by 2034 might seem feasible.
However, in terms of a sustainable economy, these numerical calculations are not enough. To truly become a trillion-dollar economy, it must reach that size in today's prices.
For this, Bangladesh needs to maintain an average of 8 per cent real growth consistently over a decade. History suggests this is an extremely challenging task. With growth currently falling below 4 per cent, this goal is becoming more distant.
Investment, employment, and productivity
In reality, GDP primarily increases when three components are strong together: investment, employment, and productivity. Bangladesh is currently under pressure in all three areas. The country will graduate from the list of least-developed countries in 2026. As a result, there is a risk of losing duty-free benefits in exports and facing higher interest rates on foreign loans. The new government must manage the economy with this reality in mind.
The biggest obstacle is investment. Due to high interest rates, policy uncertainty, a weak banking system, and political risks, quality private investment is virtually stagnant. FDI increased slightly in the first three months of 2025. During this period, $865 million came in, a significant increase from the previous year.
Still, overall FDI hovers between just 0.4 to 0.5 per cent of GDP, much lower than in Vietnam or India. The BNP's proposal sets this ratio at 2.5 per cent.
In addition to foreign investment, domestic private investment is equally important. Investment comes from trust, which is built through policy continuity, quality of governance, and political stability. To stimulate the economy, at least $10 billion of quality private investment is needed annually.
This raises the question of the state's capability. Bangladesh's revenue-to-GDP ratio is currently about 7 per cent, the lowest in South Asia. It is much lower compared to Vietnam or India. Without increasing this ratio to 14-15 per cent, the state cannot invest significantly in infrastructure, education, or health sectors.
Demographic advantage, but skill gap
Bangladesh's demographic structure is a significant opportunity. Every year, more than 2 million young people enter the labour market. The working-age population is about 68 per cent of the total population. This advantage will last until 2030. However, without creating sufficient employment, this population will become a burden rather than an advantage. Youth unemployment has already reached 11–12 per cent. The main issue is the lack of skills.
Spending on vocational and skill development is less than 0.1 per cent of GDP. Allocation for education is below 2 per cent. Allocation for health is less than 1 per cent. Without quality education and good health, productivity cannot be increased. According to the World Bank's analysis, if female labour force participation increases by 10 per cent, GDP could increase by 2–3 per cent in the long run.
GDP won't increase if these reforms are not implemented
Significant GDP growth is impossible without reforming certain sectors. First, the industrial sector. More than 80 per cent of Bangladesh's exports are still dependent on ready-made garments. Building a trillion-dollar economy with this singular structure is difficult because this sector has limited value-added and high global risks. Without increasing productivity in electronics, light engineering, pharmaceuticals, and agro-processing, substantial growth from the industrial sector will not occur.
Secondly, agriculture. Even though about 40 per cent of people work in agriculture, its contribution to GDP is 13–14 per cent. Without improving irrigation, cold storage, processing, and market access, agricultural labour will remain less productive.
Thirdly, the services sector. More than half of GDP comes from here. However, a significant portion is informal and less productive. If quality improvements can be made in IT, software, outsourcing, logistics, health, and education sectors, considerable growth can come from here. Yet, allocation for research and development is only 0.1 per cent of GDP.
There are major challenges in infrastructure and the energy sector as well. For sustainable growth, 9–10 per cent of GDP needs to be invested in infrastructure annually. Currently, it is limited to 6–7 per cent. Energy security is uncertain. The share of renewable energy is still below 3 per cent. The risk from climate change is even greater. According to the Asian Development Bank, this could reduce GDP by up to 9 per cent by 2050.
Banking, policy, and political economy
In terms of growth, the most overlooked but most detrimental issue is corruption and bureaucratic inertia. Corruption directly reduces growth. Bangladesh's position in international corruption indexes is steadily declining. At the same time, indecisive administration has become a major enemy of investment. Files move around, but decisions do not. Sometimes, the cost of this uncertainty becomes larger than the original investment.
The situation is further complicated by non-performing loans in the banking sector. With a large sum of money stuck, the flow of loans to the private sector has contracted. The market for corporate bonds for long-term financing is almost non-existent. Ultimately, the question is not only the size of GDP but also inequality, governance, and institutional capability.
A trillion-dollar economy must not become just a club for the wealthy. The experiences of Vietnam and Malaysia show that building a large economy is not possible without tough reforms.
On the path to a trillion-dollar economy, therefore, not only economic policy but also social and institutional revolution is needed. The examples of Vietnam or Malaysia illustrate that they strengthened the foundations of investment environment, education, administration, and good governance by implementing challenging reforms. The most urgent task for Bangladesh now is to create a national consensus on a ''reform agenda.''
Where political parties, the business community, and civil society will sit at one table. The dream of a trillion dollars is not just a partisan goal; rather, it is a question of national existence. Reforms mean some interests will be harmed. Therefore, the question is not technical but political economy—do we dare to break out of a bad equation?
Dreams need to be seen, plans need to be made to achieve anything. This dream is not just a partisan goal; rather, it is part of national existence. Now what is needed is a proper plan and implementation with a firm hand. Otherwise, we will grow in numbers, but in reality, remain stuck in a slow, unequal, and fragile economy. Chasing which, we will also fail to meet today's needs of the people, like keeping prices affordable, creating jobs, and ensuring justice.
Jyoti Rahman is an economist and IMF consultant
Subail Bin Alam is economic growth technical specialist
*The opinions expressed are those of the authors themselves.
#This article, originally published in Prothom Alo online edition, has been written in English by Rabiul Islam.