Claiming that conspiracies are being hatched at home and abroad against the country, Awami League general secretary Obaidul Quader said, "We are not worried about all this. The prime minister has said there may be all sorts of pressure after the election too. They have evil plans to create a famine in Bangladesh."
Obaidul Quader aired these views while speaking to the media on 9 December. Earlier, on 8 December, while speaking to party leaders and activists at her constituency, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had said, there were local and foreign plans to 'create a famine' in the country towards March next year. Naturally, her statement is bound to create serious concern and fear. This is all the more pertinent, with people already struggling to deal with the prevailing high rate of inflation.
At a juncture when the government is unable to display any success whatsoever in controlling the spiralling price of essentials, such an alarming apprehension must be based on certain information. But the information hasn't been disclosed. Though it may pay in dividends of political propaganda, it is a dangerous strategy to make claims that BNP in its present predicament is in cahoots with foreign powers to create a famine just to thwart the election.
It is a dangerous strategy to make claims that BNP in its present predicament is in cahoots with foreign powers to create a famine just to thwart the election
Whatever foreign pressure that the government is facing regarding the election, is primarily from the United States. But on 11 December, the state minister for foreign affairs said that the gap with the US over election issues has significantly closed.
Businesspersons and economists, however, over the past week have been expressing their apprehensions of economic sanctions on Bangladesh. They also say that if there are any economic sanctions imposed, that will be politically motivated. In other words, the business community is not responsible for this.
Many have expressed fear of economic sanctions after the US expressed its clear concern over adequate wages for readymade garment (RMG) sector workers and the issue of labour rights, and President Biden announced the new US labour policy. But the apex association of RMG businesspersons claims that they have not done anything that warrants sanctions. They point their fingers at the political crisis for this situation.
Overall, the situation has become more clouded with confusion. Questions arise as to whether the government has any confidential information for which it fears a famine.
Also, in order to prepare the people for harsh reality, has it taken up a strategy to blame its political opposition in advance? The dollar crisis, the liquidity crisis in banks due to massive default loans, and the market manipulations in the supply and prices of essentials, have all become regular features in the news media. It is no secret that artificial crises are created by so-called business syndicates who have patronage of the ruling coterie and that the public has to bear the brunt of their excessive profit-mongering.
We are aware that almost all food products are now partially import-dependent. In other words, local production is not meeting demands, even though there has been no major natural catastrophe or crop damage.
Just as the price of rice has increased, so has the price of flour, edible oil, lentils and sugar. Then there was a crisis of potatoes, beef and eggs. And now a second phase of spiralling onion prices has set in. The government has had to turn to imports to tackle the situation. So it is only natural to ask, does the dollar crisis have a role in this situation?
If the business community has no information in advance, or if the government has not been cautioned in advance, then why is there this talk of a famine?
Political conflict can become the reason of famine when this takes the shape of violence. In other words, if there is a civil war, food supply is disrupted and people can die of starvation.
Another source of danger could have been the International Monetary Fund (IMF), had they not released the second tranche of their committed loan. Had the IMF loan installment been held up, this could have had an impact on the other loan sources. But the installment was released. So why the fear of famine? In order to dispel all apprehension, the government should immediately make it clear, from where the footsteps of a famine are being heard and how loud are these footsteps.
The Bengali economist Amartya Sen, who won the Nobel Prize for economics in 1998, has given an explanation of why famine happens, based on lengthy research.
His research covered two famines of Bengal -- the great famine of 1943 and the famine of 1974 in the newly independent Bangladesh. He showed that the reason of the famines was not how much food was available against the demand. There can be famine even is production increases and there is not food shortage. The reason behind both the famines in Bengal was basically the crisis in the food distribution system.
Amartya Send showed that in both the famines, the food shortage didn't hit the urban areas that hard, it was alarming in the rural areas. In the great famine of 1943, people didn't die in Kolkata, but in the villages.
In 1974 too, in Bangladesh the city people could avail rice and wheat through the ration system. There was no such system in the villages. Around one million people died, most of them poor people leaving their villages in search of livelihood in the city.
He had also mentioned in his research that the crisis had been exacerbated further when the US suspended its food aid to Bangladesh as a punishment for starting trade with Cuba.
There are no available instances of an opposition political party being responsible for a famine in a democratic system of governance. Political conflict can become the reason of famine when this takes the shape of violence. In other words, if there is a civil war, food supply is disrupted and people can die of starvation.
UN special rapporteur on the right to food Michael Fakhri, in his report presented at the UN Human Rights Council on 9 March this year, said hunger and famine do not arise because there is not enough food to go around. These were caused due to political failures to resolve political problems.
So will we make the assumption that the one-sided election that is about to take place, will bring an end to all possibilities of resolving the prevailing political crisis? And is that why famine is feared as the fallout?
* Kamal Ahmed is a senior journalist
* This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir