The matter was not unexpected at all. For quite a few months, the US had been calling for the coming election to be free and fair. They had not only been speaking against irregularities during the election, but had also been calling for a pre-election political environment conducive to all political parties. In continuation of that, the US has said that if there are any irregularities in the forthcoming elections, the concerned persons will not be granted US visas.
Bangladesh is not the first country against whom the US has imposed such a harsh decision. Only two weeks ago, Washington took a similar decision against those involved in irregularities regarding the election in Nigeria. In virtually the same language and referring to the same laws, the US secretary of state Antony Blinken announced the decision regarding visa restrictions against election rigging.
There is, however, a significant difference between the two countries. Nigeria's national elections were on 25 February, that is, three months ago. The election had been rife with irregularities and there had been incidence of violence too. In consideration of the post-election situation, it was said that as punitive action, visas would not be issued to those involved in the irregularities. In Bangladesh, there are still a few months left before the election. That is why this announcement made so much in advance has surprised many.
The US government maintains that these are not sanctions. In an interview on a private TV channel, a senior official of the state department, Donald Lu, said this was not a sanction. A new visa policy had been announced that aimed at ensuring no irregularities took place in Bangladesh's next election.
The question of who will come under the purview of this new policy has provoked much curiosity. In Nigeria, only persons who had been involved in one way or the other in election irregularities had been named. In Bangladesh, the number of persons to fall under the purview of this new policy is staggering. Members of the government, the judiciary, the law enforcement agencies, and the opposition political parties, can all be on the list of visa refusal.
Earlier, sanctions had been imposed on a number of RAB officials on grounds of human rights violations. This time members of the judiciary have been included. This indicates that the US feels that government officials alone are not involved in the election manipulations. Members of the judiciary may be involved too.
If this is not any new sanction, then why was it necessary to make the announcement so blatantly and so much in advance? Presumably, the US wanted to convey the message that if there were excessive irregularities in the coming election, then Washington may take effective action. No one clearly enunciated what this action would be, but other than the restrictions on a number of RAB officials to visit the US, there were also restrictions on owning property in the US or carrying out financial transactions there.
Washington from quite some time back has been voicing its concern that democracy in Bangladesh was regressing. It had said, in effect, if the situation did not change, due measures would be taken. One such measure was Bangladesh not being invited to the Democracy Summit called by President Joe Biden. Bangladesh was not invited to this summit for two consecutive times. There is all reason to believe that Bangladesh was not only cold-shouldered, but humiliated too. But Bangladesh was not that perturbed by not being invited, as it was by the sanctions on RAB.
Many persons among the ruling coterie in Bangladesh own property in the US. Many of their sons and daughters are pursuing higher studies there. If they lose the opportunity to travel to the US, that would be downright humiliating. It would be even more alarming if they had to relinquish their property.
Bangladesh ran through a gamut of negotiations in an attempt to have the sanctions on RAB lifted. Foreign minister AK Momen himself spoke to the US secretary of state on this head. It is no secret with that a lobbying firm was even hired to give Bangladesh's image a clean bill of health before the US policymakers.
Despite all these tensions over election politics, there is no doubt that the US is eager to maintain good relations with Bangladesh. On the occasion of 50 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries, President Joe Biden sent a message to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, expressing his hope that the relations between the two countries would flourish further.
In the recent years, as part of its block-China policy, Washington has been trying to boost its military presence in the Indian Ocean region. Washington expects Bangladesh to play a significant role in this equation. That is why they have been placing emphasis on signing a military information sharing agreement with Bangladesh. Just two days ago, a senior official of the US state department Afreen Akhter visited Bangladesh. She openly said that the US is interested in providing advanced radars for surveillance of the maritime territory along Bangladesh. Needless to say, the target of this surveillance is China.
The enforced disappearances and killings dropped dramatically with the imposition of sanctions on RAB. As a result of this minor rap on the knuckles, if the next election proves to be credible to all, that will surely give us reason to be pleased
Michael Kugelman, South Asian expert of Washington's Wilson Centre, termed this as Washington's carrot and stick policy, stern on one hand and beckoning them on the other. He told this correspondent that other than on the Taliban in Afghanistan, nowhere else had Washington imposed any sanction on the defence department of any country of South Asia. That is why this matter appeared risky to Kugelman. The possibility cannot be dismissed that such a step may push Bangladesh towards China. However, he also commented, given the present Bangladesh government's close proximity to the Modi government of India, Bangladesh will not lean towards China.
Kugelman feels that that this contradictory policy of upholding democracy on one hand and building deeper ties with Bangladesh on the other, may not seem quite well-defined. But despite the ongoing tensions, till now the relations between the two countries remain on firm footing.
The bottom line is, there is no reason to panic over the announcement of this new visa policy. This is not a sanction. At the most it can be called an admonition. In the past we have observed how the enforced disappearances and killings dropped dramatically with the imposition of sanctions on RAB. As a result of this minor rap on the knuckles, if the next election proves to be credible to all, that will surely give us reason to be pleased.
* Hasan Ferdous is a writer and columnist
* This column appeared in the print an online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir