No forecast on such severe flood

There was no forecast of heavy rains and severe flooding across the Chattogram and Sylhet divisions. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) only forecasted a little rise in the water level.

The flood forecasting and warning centre of India didn’t announce any such forecast either. As a result, the eastern part of the country has been devastated by the sudden and severe flood.

There is a practice between India and Bangladesh to inform each other in case of any risk of sudden flood or flash flood. The river Bilunia of India, upstream of the Muhuri river, saw record amount of rainfall in the last three days. The water level rose rapidly. But the Indian water resource ministry didn’t issue any warning to Bangladesh regarding this.

Speaking about this, Uday Raihan, executive engineer at the FFWC of Bangladesh, said, “We got the information regarding the rise in the water level in the upstream of the Gumti and Matamuhuri rivers from the website. Our Indian counterpart always provides updates twice a day. However, they didn’t provide any details regarding the development this time. It’s tough to provide an accurate forecast regarding floods without detailed information.”

The water from heavy rains in India’s Teesta, Brahmaputra and Ganges basins, upstream of Bangladesh, reaches the downstream some three to seven days later, which creates seasonal floods. However, water from heavy rains in Tripura reaches Feni, Noakhali and Chattogram within five to eight hours.

In such an emergency situation, India should have informed Bangladesh immediately. There should be an agreement between the two countries with an obligation to inform each other in such cases.

According to the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, the eastern part of the country recorded the highest ever rainfall in 53 years in the three days from 19 August. The flood situation turned severe within a very short period due to heavy rainfall and lack of paths for water to recede.

According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), such heavy rains are uncommon in the month of August. Usually the coastal region and central parts of the country see heavy and continuous rains by the end of August.

The Feni and Cumilla districts experienced heavy rains in August in the past too but the spell ended within a day or two. There have been heavy rains with pauses in Chattogram and Noakhali over the last one month. Most of the districts in that region recorded 100-200 mm rainfall in the last week of August. There were reports of heavy rains in that region in the second week of this month too.

BMD said rainfalls reached a record 53-year high to 304 millimetres in the Parshuram upazila of Feni on 20 August. About 188 millimetres of rainfall was also recorded in 24 hours in Cumilla - the highest since 1968 when 442 millimetres of rainfalls occurred in 24 hours sometimes that year.

Besides this, 146 millimetres of rainfall was recorded in 24 hours on the upstream in the Belonia river in South Tripura of India. Record-breaking rainfalls both in the upstream and downstream deteriorated the flood situations in Bangladesh rapidly.

Experts said one of the five major responsibilities of the Joint River Commission is to forecast floods appropriately. Had the information on the water of 54 transboundary between Bangladesh and India, as well as floods been exchanged properly, and had the flood forecasts been presented convincingly to people, such a major disaster would not have happened.

Most of the rivers in Bangladesh including Gumti, Feni, Khoai, and Matamuhuri in which floodwaters flow downstream have been either filled with soil or encroached over the past 25 years.

According to the National River Commission, there are 11,447 river encroachers in Cumilla, Feni and Noakhali, and the figure rose to about 20,000 in the entire Chattogram division. Encroachment of rivers, canals and marshlands is now disrupting the flow of floodwaters.

The National River Conservation Commission released a list of the countrywide river encroachers in December 2022 and then ruling party leaders and activists as well as influential quarters dominated the list.

Of the existing flood-affected areas, about 6,000 names came up from Cumilla, 277 from Feni, 4,303 from Noakhali and 1,041 names were from Lakshimpur in the list.

River and Delta Research Centre (RDRC) chairman Mohammad Azaz told Prothom Alo, “It is necessary to receive accurate information from India on the water flow from upstream as much as to keep the water-flowing routes open in the downstream. For this, the Joint River Commission and the National River Conservation Commission could have played the most important role, but these two commissions have been made ineffective. Time has come to make these institutions function and effective.”

River and water expert Ainun Nishat told Prothom Alo, “Bangladesh must overhaul its flood and weather forecast system. It cannot be understood in advance about major disasters like the existing floods from the types of forecast that we currently provide. Besides, we received detailed information from India on the water flow of Ganges and Teesta rivers, but we do not get that much information on the water flow of other rivers like Gumti and Muhuri rivers.”

Ainun Nishat, who is an emeritus professor at BRAC University said the opening of Dumbur dam in Tripura, India is believed to be the cause of these floods, but the reality is that the sluice gate of the Gumti hydropower plant opens automatically once water rises and shuts automatically once water recedes.

* This report appeared in the print and online editions of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten in English by Ashish Basu and Hasanul Banna