The GM Quader-led Jatiya Party (JaPa) aims to assume the role of the main opposition party in parliament by securing 40 to 50 seats in the upcoming elections.
To achieve this goal, the party's policy-making leaders are engaged in negotiations with the ruling party, Awami League, for seat sharing. The two sides are scheduled to meet today, Friday afternoon.
Nevertheless, a high-ranking leader of Awami League revealed on Thursday night to Prothom Alo that they have already communicated to JaPa leaders about an agreement on a specific number of seats.
The seat agreement between Awami League and JaPa may be finalised in their meeting today. In two previous rounds of discussions, the two parties struggled to reach a consensus on various aspects, including election strategy, seat distribution, and the withdrawal of Awami League's party and independent candidates. Neither side has publicly confirmed any negotiation though.
Policy-making leaders of JaPa expressed their desire to enter parliament with more seats than the previous election, aiming for 40 to 50 seats. In the 11th national parliament, the party held 22 seats.
Analysis of the results from the last three parliamentary elections indicates that JaPa does not enjoy the same level of popularity in polls. In those elections, almost none of the constituencies won by JaPa had Awami League candidates.
Furthermore, nearly 86 per cent of JaPa candidates lost their security deposits in constituencies where they contested without an agreement with Awami League. The voting rate for Jatiya Party in the last three national parliament elections also appears to have gradually decreased.
Political analysts are expressing concern about the deteriorating condition of Jatiya Party, suggesting that the party lacks the ability to achieve favorable results in a single election without negotiations. As a result, their chances of winning are deemed limited, except through the withdrawal of boat candidates and participation in a one-sided election.
In the last election, two JaPa leaders secured seats in the capital Dhaka through compromise. This time, these two seats are again on the compromise list for JaPa, with both having Awami League candidates and multiple independent candidates from the party.
In an interesting development, the Awami League candidate for one of these seats went to Saudi Arabia to perform the holy Umrah Hajj. This has raised concerns for Jatiya Party's candidate for that seat as the deadline for the withdrawal of candidature is on 17 December. The candidate is anxious about the agreement with Awami League, wondering when the AL candidate will return to the country and withdraw his candidature. This apprehension has been shared with several close friends.
In response to inquiries about why JaPa is seeking numerous seats in the current situation, a senior leader of the party explained to Prothom Alo that the upcoming election for the 12th Parliament is already marked by controversy.
While there might not be any constitutional or procedural errors, the leader expressed concerns that if Awami League secures 280 seats and allocates only 20 seats to all opposition parties, it will further intensify the controversy.
According to JaPa's policy-making leaders, the upcoming elections do not align with the democratic world's expectations, including those of the United States. Consequently, they anticipate that the focus during the elections will revolve around four key issues: election day violence, vote rigging, voter turnout at the polling centers, and the composition of the parliament, particularly the position of the opposition within it.
Leaders of Jatiya Party believe that if the opposition parties secure 70 to 75 seats in the parliament, it will garner attention from the democratic world.
Particularly, opposition members of Parliament can establish themselves as an effective opposition party by addressing sensitive issues in the first session. By doing so, they hope to soften the strict stance of the international community, including the United Nations, on the issue of free, fair, and credible elections to some extent.
A high-ranking leader of JaPa, requesting anonymity, disclosed to Prothom Alo, "We have communicated this to the responsible leaders of Awami League, and they have understood it. Those who are concerned about our elections also desire this outcome. Now, Awami League leaders will present this to the prime minister. Whether it happens or not will depend on her decision."
Despite earlier indications of seeking a higher number of seats, sources now suggest that there might be an agreement with Jatiya Party for 25 to 30 seats.
Mujibul Haque (Chunnu), the secretary general of Jatiya Party at its Banani office, stated in a press conference, "Both parties have decided that we want to set an example to make the elections fair. Since Awami League is the biggest party politically and they are participating in the elections, we are also taking part in the elections. These two parties will basically compete. For that, we are developing a relationship."