Rakhine after the fall of Maungdaw: Implications for Bangladesh and region

Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) convened a high-level policy cafe on “Rakhine after the Fall of Maungdaw: Implications for Bangladesh and the Region” on 28 December, 2024, stated a press release.

The discourse, held at The Westin, Dhaka, brought together security experts, former diplomats, and academics to discuss the evolving dynamics in Rakhine State and their implications for Bangladesh and its neighboring regions.

The discussion was moderated by BIPSS president Major General (Retd) ANM Muniruzzaman, president of BIPSS. Distinguished panelists included Major General (Retd) Md Shahidul Haque, former defense attaché to Myanmar and former ambassador to Libya along with Parvez Karim Abbasi, assistant professor at East-West University.

The dialogue focused on the increasing control of the Arakan Army (AA) over Rakhine State, which now dominates more than 80 per cent of the region, including its 271-km border with Bangladesh.

While delivering his opening remarks, Shafqat Munir, senior research fellow at BIPSS, elevated the discourse by sharing his valuable insights on the topic under discussion, and emphasised the importance of navigating through the leverage to acquire from the situation. Panelists emphasised the strategic necessity, as well, for Bangladesh to engage with the Arakan Army while maintaining a balanced approach that includes both diplomatic and military options.

The moderator of the event, Major General (Retd) Muniruzzaman, stressed the importance of formulating a clear national strategy to address this multifaceted challenge, cautioning that delays in establishing contact with the Arakan Army could lead to missed opportunities as external actors increasingly engage with Rakhine through maritime routes. Drawing parallels with India's recalibration of its Myanmar strategy, he noted that Bangladesh must act decisively to safeguard its interests.

Major General Muniruzzaman emphasised Rakhine’s strategic importance, highlighting its maritime access to the Bay of Bengal and its resource-rich, multi-ethnic composition. He noted the region’s significance in the context of US-China strategic competition, particularly referencing China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the BCIM Economic Corridor.

Additionally, he pointed out that projects like the Sino-Myanmar Oil and Gas Pipeline underscore Rakhine’s role as a critical connectivity hub. ANM Muniruzzaman also drew attention to India’s favorable ties with Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw) urging Bangladesh to act decisively to protect its interests amidst increasing external engagement in Rakhine.

Assistant Professor Parvez Karim Abbasi emphasised that engaging with the Arakan Army (AA) is a pragmatic approach often employed in complex geopolitical scenarios, suggesting the use of informal communication channels if direct contact proves unfeasible. He warned that the AA’s growing dominance could escalate insurgency risks in India’s northeastern states, highlighting broader regional implications.

Parvez Karim Abbasi stated that Myanmar's possible implosion will create a new Arc of Crisis in South and South East Asia. It may be the breeding ground for proxy war similar to Afghanistan in the last four decades.

He highlighted shifts in diplomatic rhetoric toward the AA as a reflection of changing geopolitical alignments and used terms like “Balkanisation of Myanmar” and “Stockholm Syndrome” to frame his analysis. On the Rohingya issue, he warned that the AA’s vision for an “Arakan Dream,” rooted in Burmese nationalist discourse as a Bengali-free Arakan, excludes any place for Rohingyas.

Parvez Karim Abbasi also expressed concerns about uncertainties stemming from rising global tensions, including the possible return of hawkish US leadership under Donald Trump. Concluding his analysis, he noted that while the AA appears open to confederation rather than full independence, its growing influence poses significant risks to regional stability.

Major General (Retd) Md Shahidul Haque described potential engagement with the Arakan Army (AA) as a “win-win situation” for Bangladesh, emphasising that such an approach could simultaneously advance the country’s security and economic interests. He noted that the evolving political landscape in Rakhine presents Bangladesh with a rare strategic advantage to negotiate its regional interests, particularly with India.

Offering a nuanced analysis, Shahidul Haque identified the AA as the first non-state actor with which Bangladesh shares a border, highlighting its lack of accountability for human rights and international recognition while cautioning about potential cross-border movements of insurgent groups. He revealed that some Bangladeshi tribal groups are actively fighting alongside the AA against Myanmar, warning that fostering ties with the AA could risk long-term trade relations with Myanmar.

However, he suggested that economic engagement, such as supplying agricultural surplus to Arakan, could create mutually beneficial outcomes. Additionally, Haque pointed out tensions between the AA and Chin groups, which pose challenges for India but could provide strategic negotiation opportunities for Bangladesh.

The policy café concluded with an interactive session where participants delved into various dimensions of the issue, including security risks, economic opportunities, and regional geopolitics, offering valuable insights into how Bangladesh can navigate this complex situation while safeguarding its national interests.

The discussion sparked robust debate on regional geopolitics, with some participants criticizing an overemphasis on India’s “Chicken’s Neck” corridor and others examining China’s two-ocean strategy, which could involve deploying forces under security pretexts despite Myanmar’s opposition to foreign troops. Participants also explored how Bangladesh could leverage its strategic position between China and India, both of which engage indirectly with Myanmar despite lacking shared borders.

Additionally, there was advocacy for empowering Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh to develop leadership skills, assert their rights, and facilitate repatriation efforts. These discussions underscored the need for a balanced approach to regional dynamics and the importance of fostering sustainable solutions to complex geopolitical challenges.