The July 2024 mass uprising brought down the Awami League government. In its aftermath, an interim government was formed, under whose authority the Jatiya Sangsad (national parliament) election is set to take place in the first half of February.
There has been considerable discussion about how much the July uprising will influence the coming election. According to a survey conducted at the initiative of Prothom Alo, 23 per cent of respondents believe that the July uprising will have a significant and wide-ranging impact on the coming election.
The survey gathered the views of 1,342 adults (aged 18–55) from five cities and five rural or semi-urban areas. Among them were 674 men and 668 women. Participants represented diverse income groups, classes and professions. Data were collected between 21 and 28 October.
According to the organisation that conducted the survey, this is an opinion poll. It is nationally representative but does not represent any specific constituency. The sample reflects people who can read online or print newspapers and who are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The confidence level of the survey results is 99 per cent.
When asked how much influence the July uprising would have on the national election, 30 per cent said it would have a slight impact. Another 8 per cent said it would have no impact at all.
Some 18.6 per cent of respondents believed the uprising would have a significant impact on the vote, while 4.7 per cent thought the influence would be extensive.
In total, 23.3 per cent believed July would have an impact on the election. Meanwhile, 38.6 per cent were unsure whether the July uprising would influence the election.
There was little difference between male and female respondents regarding the impact of the July uprising. However, the tendency to believe that July will have a substantial influence is somewhat higher among the youngest voters. For example, 25.5 per cent of voters aged 18 to 24 believe the uprising will have a significant impact on the election, while 4.7 per cent respondents of that age group think the impact will be extensive.
Altogether, 30.2 per cent of the youngest voters said the July uprising would have an influence on the election.