Is 'understanding behind the scenes' part of AL strategy?

Awami League general secretary Obaidul Quader in recent times has been making certain statements over the last few days, asserting that "Awami League has had talks with Peter Haas' guardians", "No one will impose any sanctions, compromise has been reached behind the scenes," and so on. Certain leaders of the party feel that such statements are probably a ploy to lessen the pressure on them. However, most leaders, even most of the cabinet members, have no idea of any talks or understanding taking place behind the scenes. And so the actual picture of what is going on at home and abroad concerning the forthcoming national election, remains unclear.

Several leaders of Awami League feel that there could be two reasons behind the general secretary's statements. Firstly, to reassure the party's leaders and activists as well as the government administration. Secondly, to throw a spanner into the BNP's ongoing movement in demand of the government's resignation.  Awami League policymakers feel that BNP will not be able to topple the government through its movement, but will exert itself before the election. Awami League aims to weaken this effort.

When asked about the matter, Awami League presidium member Kazi Zafrullah told Prothom Alo that he cannot say in what context the party general secretary had spoken. However, the foreign quarters are not putting on any pressure regarding BNP's movement in demand for a caretaker government or a neutral government. They are taking about free and fair election. Awami League president Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has ensured that the voting will be free and fair. So what pressure can there be after that?

Kazi Zafrullah went on to explain Awami League's continuous programmes like the opposition, saying that the elections are ahead and there are 10 or more aspiring candidates in every seat. Everyone wants to display their strength on the streets. This can be seen as a preparation for the election.

Five leaders of Awami League's central committee and three members of the cabinet shared their views on their matter. They said that they had no idea about what lay behind Obaidul Quader's hints about an understanding with the West including the US. It is not clear who is aware of these matters within the party and the government. That is why they are not bothering their heads over these matter and paying attention instead to their routine instructions that come in, the leaders said.

Awami League leaders have said that till now the message given to most of the leaders in the party is to ensure control of the streets right up till the forthcoming election. The members of parliament have been given the same message. It is the top leadership of the party that will think about who will contest in the election and how to tackle the foreign quarters. As a result, the leaders are focused on displaying their strength on the streets.

A central leader of Awami League, on condition of anonymity, told Prothom Alo that the top leaders of the party are saying not to bother about the US visa policy or the sanctions, so why has any 'understanding behind the scenes' become so important?

Another central leader feels that the activities of the western quarters have created pressure on the party workers, supporters and the government administration. Obaidul Quader has mentioned an 'understanding behind the scenes' in order to alleviate this pressure. But, the leader said, he had no what this understanding was about or with whom there was any understanding.

Several sources in Awami League have said that over the past 15 years of the party's rule, a big achievement of the government, other than development activities, is complete control over all sectors. While there may be conflict and contentions within the party, there is consensus concerning the leadership of party president Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. It is also established in Awami League that Sheikh Hasina's leadership is respected all over the world. This was seen in the 2014 and 2018 election. However, this time a different situation has emerged with the implementation of the US visa policy, sanctions on RAB and the strong statements of the western  countries regarding free and fair elections.

Awami League sources say that the activities of the US and other countries of the West have certainly put pressure on Awami League. BNP, which couldn't even take to the streets do so long, are now being allowed to hold rallies and public meetings. BNP and other opposition parties are holding large rallies and displaying their strength.

The opposition is heating up the streets with their one-point demand for the government to step down. All this is a result of pressure from foreign quarters. It is to relieve all this pressure that the party and government policymakers are insisting that all is well.

An Awami League cabinet member, on condition of remaining unnamed, told Prothom Alo that Jatiya Party, Islami Andolan Bangladesh and other parties allied with the government, have still not given any clear statement of joining the election. And the opposition is still putting on the pressure with its one-point demand.

It is also not discernable when the US may put on the pressure or impose sanctions. This naturally makes the party and the government uneasy. There is nothing much more for Awami League to do in order to assuage this ease, other than putting on a display of confidence. And that is what the party's senior leaders are doing.

The attitude of the Awami League leaders and talk within the government quarters indicate that Awami League's main objective is to hold the election on time. If the US and the other countries of the West do not come up with any fresh pressure, the elections will take place. BNP does not have that the power to thwart the election. And once the government is formed, the international community may soften its stance too. Prime minister Sheikh Hasina will become active is tacking the economic crisis. Till now that is how Awami League is proceeding ahead with this strategy, aspirations and activities.