The month of September has neared the end, but the authorities are yet to disclose the inflation data of August as a hide and seek game is going on over the inflation data.
It seems that the data is not being released as the inflation rate reached an alarming level when the experts smelled a rat behind the delay.
They said a kind of politics is underway centering the economic data.
Generally, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) prepares the inflation data of a month in the first week of the following month. The bureau prepared the inflation data in due time and submitted it to the planning ministry. But the official data is yet to be released as the planning ministry did not receive green signal from the high ups of the government.
According to sources of the planning ministry, the inflation exceeded 9 per cent in August and the food inflation reached a double-digit rate as per the BBS draft. It denotes that the inflation rose by three percentage points within a month.
Although the government did not disclose the rise in inflation rate, the limited-income people have already been feeling the heat.
The high inflation has increased the cost of living manifold, forcing the people to deal with constant pressure. The poor are getting poorer while the middle class people are also struggling to survive.
However, state minister for planning Shamsul Alam assured that the inflation data for the month of August will be released soon and there is nothing to panic about. But he did not mention any specific time.
In a conversation with Prothom Alo, the state minister also said the entire world has been going through a high inflation rate and it will continue rising in Bangladesh until October if the current situation is taken into account. Then the inflationary pressure will decrease slowly.
State minister Shamsul Alam said the inflation has an annual cycle and it maintains an increasing trend from July to October due to low crop production amid various natural disasters, including rain and flood. The inflation remains low from April to June.
The government data is called into question when there is a delay to release the inflation rate. Why is the data not being released when it is prepared in the first week?
Why so much discussion?
There is a lot of interest among policymakers, economists, researchers and related people regarding the August inflation data as the rise in fuel price has a negative bearing on the economy.
Bangladesh witnessed a steady uptick in the inflation rate throughout the last several months. The fuel price was decreasing in the world market during the period.
But the government, in an unprecedented move, hiked the fuel oil price up to 51 per cent on 5 August, with the diesel price rising by Tk 34 per liter, octane price by Tk 46 per liter, and petrol price by Tk 44 per liter.
Later, all types of transport fare were raised, which eventually pulled the commodity prices. In the face of a huge public outcry, the government slashed the fuel price by Tk 5 apparently to save its face.
The government move did not have much impact on the market; rather, in its overall effect, the prices of non-food products such as transportation, clothing, and educational materials also went up.
Since then, there was a fear of further rise in inflation in August. Some economists had estimated that the inflation rate could exceed 10 per cent.
Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of the Policy Research Institute (PRI), told Prothom Alo that the government data is called into question when there is a delay to release the inflation rate. Why is the data not being released when it is prepared in the first week?
The policies are formulated on the basis of the inflation data. But it is a tragic truth that the information is being manipulated and covered up here. Whatever the inflation rate is, it should be disclosed, he said, adding that the politics over data should be stopped.
He estimated the inflation rate to go up by three percentage points due to the rise in fuel prices.
Data in first week if lower, delay if higher
Analysing the timing of recent inflation data release, it was learnt that when inflation rate falls in a month, the data is released in the first week of the following month. If it increases again, we have to wait until the third or fourth week of the next month to get the inflation data.
For example, the inflation rate was more than 7 per cent in May and June. The authorities officially released the data on the 19th day of the following months. But, the inflation data of July was released quickly on 3 August as the rate dipped below the threshold of 7 per cent in the month.
The BBS is the only entity to take care of all sorts of information and disclose them. The bureau used to reveal the data through press conferences eight to nine years ago.
Now, the planning minister, instead of the BBS, briefs the reporters about the inflation data. Finance minister AHM Mustafa Kamal initiated the trend during his tenure as planning minister.
When inflation continued to increase in 2017, AHM Mustafa Kamal took an initiative to publish inflation data after every three months, instead of each month. Later, he returned to the monthly release when the inflation rate started to decline.
The biggest problem
Inflation is now the biggest problem across the world and all economic policies are focused on controlling it.
The US central bank, the Federal Reserve or Fed, has been aggressively raising policy interest rates to reduce inflation. Even recessions are being invoked to reduce inflation, which triggered a strong debate globally.
The World Bank has warned that the situation could be worse than recession unless all nations work coordinately to control inflation. It even feared stagflation, which means a drastic fall in growth with no decrease in inflation.
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said people in countries around the world will take to the streets if those who are most affected by the high inflation are not protected. Former US president Gerald Ford labelled inflation as the public enemy number one in 1974.
The inflation rate was below 5 per cent in Bangladesh in January, but it crossed the 6 per cent mark in February and continued to rise steadily. The figure crossed 7 per cent and stood at 7.56 per cent in June.
Bangladesh reported an inflation rate of 7.85 per cent in July, 2013.
Inflation is like a tax while many call it a silent killer. If the wage or income does not increase in line with the increase in the price of goods, the pressure increases on the people with limited income as their real purchasing power decreases.
In such a situation, the government is merely reducing the import duty on some products to control inflation, though the globally effective method of controlling inflation is the application of monetary policy and reducing the injection of currency.
Bangladesh is yet to take any such initiative. Hence, the inflation rate is not falling, rather the record fuel price hike has fueled the inflation rate.
Economist Ahsan H Mansur believes that the actual inflation data should be published in this situation.
He said, “The policies need to be fixed in line with the inflation data. How will we fight inflation in absence of related data? Interest rates on deposits and loans should be adjusted in line with the inflation rate. The accurate inflation data is also needed to bring stability to the currency market.”