Geopolitics and the uncertain future of Rohingyas
After the military coup in Myanmar, there had been talk of taking back the 1.1 million (11 lakh) or so Rohingyas who had been driven out of Rakhine (Arakan) and had taken shelter in Bangladesh. Such sentiment is no longer being heard. In fact, the military junta in Myanmar is speaking in quite the opposite tone. Their spokesperson recently said that the Rohingya issue is not on their priority list. This is because of pressure from the Rakhine nationalist leaders there.
The military junta in Myanmar had not imagined that after taking over power, they would face such stiff opposition from supporters of NLD (National League for Democracy) and the people. The junta government still awaits international recognition. The ASEAN countries are divided. The Rohingya issue is not their priority either. The ASEAN countries are not opposed to Myanmar’s military junta either.
While not expressing its support for the junta government, Japan does not oppose it either. And Japan, along with the US, Australia and India, is also a member of Quad, the anti-China alliance in the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal
It is not that no country supports the military junta in Myanmar. They have the support of their two big neighbours and two powerful Asian countries, China and India. In geopolitical considerations, Myanmar is important to China. The Rakhine region, perched on the Bay of Bengal, became of particular strategic importance when in 2013, China took up its new geostrategic plan, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Pipelines have been set up from Kyakphyu port to take gas from the offshore Shwe gas field and from the large fuel oil terminal across Myanmar to Kunming in China. Preliminary transmission has begun. China has also undertaken work on a hi-speed railway track connecting to Yangon.
These plans, including the plan for a large special exclusive economic zone, were taken up before 2015, but gained speed during the government of Aung San Suu Kyi. At the time, the people of Arakan and their political party ANP (Arakan National Party) and the armed force Arakan Army (AA) as well as United League of Arakan (ULA) were against Suu Kyi and the armed forces. At the same time, the local people of whom 60 per cent were Buddhist, were against the 30 per cent Muslim population, particularly the Rohingyas. They still are against them. This 60 per cent have changed their stance somewhat. Various local groups have joined hands with the military junta and the Arakan Army has been given importance. And so the junta is in full power in Arakan.
The Arakan Army had been opposed to the Indian Kaladan project in the Arakan state and also against the special economic zone there. There had been attacks on Indian nationals working with the project there. They were abducted and held for ransom on quite a regular basis. But things have calmed down considerably, given India’s silent support for the junta. China, however, hardly seems concerned about Indian presence in the North Rakhine region or the strengthening of its naval base and air force base in Andaman-Nicobar. After all, China for long has had its surveillance installations set up on Myanmar’s Coco Islands northwest of Andaman to monitor the Bay of Bengal.
Other than India and China, Japan is also entering Myanmar with its investments. While it may not be near China in geopolitical and strategic clout, during Aung San Suu Kyi’s time Japan had poured in huge investment, particular in Myanmar’s eastern region. It also plans huge investment in the planned economic zone near Rakhine’s Maungdaw. While not expressing its support for the junta government, Japan does not oppose it either. And Japan, along with the US, Australia and India, is also a member of Quad, the anti-China alliance in the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal.
Bangladesh has not much to do at the moment other than continue in its efforts. However, the geopolitical and geostrategic developments must be monitored keenly. The Rohingyas must return, but it is hard to tell how many more years it will take
Due to these three forces, Rakhine, which used to be the poorest region in Myanmar, is now one of the most important geostrategic regions. The reason for this is its expansive plains and its 1,200 mile coast along the Bay of Bengal.
In the changed global geopolitics and according to Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan, “Whoever dominates the India Ocean, dominates Asia.” India has accordingly strengthened its naval force and is acting as the main force behind the US Indian Ocean policy. The Malabar military exercise is supposed to be held in the Bay of Bengal sometime this month. Other than the Quad members, France will also join.
With the anti-China forces displaying their strength in the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal on one hand, and the emerging geostrategic importance of Rakhine on the other, it seems like the homeless Rohingyas are being used as political pawns by the international and internal anti-junta forces.
The anti-junta alliance, National Unity Government (NUG) was formed basically with the parliament members of NLD. It also has a number of members of the Kachin and Karen rebel groups. NUG has created the People’s Defence Force for armed rebellion alongside its political efforts. However, it is said that they haven’t managed to build up strength enough to face the Myanmar army.
Meanwhile, the NUG shadow government has said if captures power, it will establish a federal system in Myanmar. They have pledged not only to grant citizenship to the Rohingyas chased away from Rakhine and in various camps, but also to bring back the Rohingyas in Bangladesh and grant them citizenship too. This NLD-controlled NUG shadow government has used the term ‘Rohingya’. It has called upon the Rohingyas to join in the anti-junta struggle. Arakan’s nationalist leaders are opposing this and are unhappy with NUG’s Rohingya plans. But the Arakan Army has said nothing against the plan as yet.
According to experts, NUG is using the Rohingyas as pawns to gain credibility and cooperation from the International arena. No government has given recognition to this shadow government and is unlikely to do so. A technical and government team of China recently called upon Myanmar’s junta head Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and addressed him as Myanmar’s administrator and top leader. In the meantime, given their geostrategic interests, it is not likely that India will support NUG. Neither has Japan given any sort of support to this shadow government.
It seems to be an unreal dream for NUG to be able to topple this government and form a new constitution, amending the citizenship law. The leaders in Rakhine have repeatedly made it clear that they will not accept repatriation of the Rohingyas.
All in all, it is clear that the Rohingya repatriation issue has been protracted further and remains uncertain. Bangladesh has not much to do at the moment other than continue in its efforts. However, the geopolitical and geostrategic developments must be monitored keenly. The Rohingyas must return, but it is hard to tell how many more years it will take.
* M Sakhawat Hossain is an election analyst, former army officer and SIPG senior research fellow (NSU). He can be contacted at [email protected]
* This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir