Bangladesh has now become part of geopolitical competition

You were once a senior military officer. How would you assess the role the army played in August last year?

Mahfuzur Rahman: The majority of the Bangladesh Army has made the right decisions at the right time and stood by the people at every critical juncture in the country’s history. Last August stands as a testament to that. I commend the army for being sensitive to the chain of command, the will of the majority of the force, and the aspirations of the broader student and public community. It acted in line with the principles of a people-oriented armed force as guided by defense directives.

I believe that to prevent the misuse of the military by individuals or groups for political purposes in the future, the military itself needs to undergo reforms to eliminate the remnants of past misdeeds committed by a small segment.

Since the mass uprising, the army has also been deployed to maintain law and order. There is a concern in society about the law and order situation. Do you think the armed forces are failing in this role?

Mahfuzur Rahman: In the past, when the military was deployed to control law and order, noticeable improvements followed. However, despite the armed forces being deployed after the uprising, the expected sense of security has not returned, which has raised concerns.

The armed forces previously enhanced the effectiveness of law enforcement by acting as a support to the civil administration. Currently, the police and Ansar forces are yet to become fully effective. This situation has allowed criminals to increase their activities.

The military can deploy around 30,000 personnel after fulfilling its own duties. It’s difficult for 30,000 troops to fulfill the effectiveness of 200,000 police members. Identifying serious criminals and preempting crimes relies heavily on the police, RAB (Rapid Action Battalion), and intelligence agencies—who are also not fully active in the field.

In the past, intelligence support came readily from DGFI (Directorate General of Forces Intelligence) and NSI (National Security Intelligence) during such deployments, but it seems they are now acting conservatively and are on the backfoot.

The armed forces also appear to be cautious about exercising magisterial powers to avoid its misuse. Given these constraints, it’s normal to observe an insufficiency in public satisfaction.

Poor law and order situation can affect the economy negatively. What should be done to manage both crises?

Mahfuzur Rahman: Both the economy and law and order are vast issues. The economy is influenced by both domestic and global factors, and law and order is no longer just a domestic issue.

At this moment, what’s needed is consensus among all those involved in protecting national interests. The head of the government must ensure a “unity of command”. The National Security Council must be made effective. Given the nature of the current government, a consultative decision-making process should be adopted.

Coordination, consensus, and cooperation among all involved in maintaining law and order and driving development are essential. Export-oriented industries must be kept disciplined, and any disorder there should be dealt with strictly.

We are in a fragile situation. Our opponent is waging an information war in a planned way, which is destabilising us. We must counter this with truth and integrity. If we fail to rebuild and reconstruct the country—regardless of who is responsible—the consequences will be dire for all.

As a geopolitical expert, do you believe there is a connection between Bangladesh’s internal political turmoil and geopolitics?

Mahfuzur Rahman: It’s not unfounded to link the internal tensions in Bangladesh with geopolitics. The Indian Ocean, divided into the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, has become a demographic and strategic hub of the 21st century. At the head of the Arabian Sea are Iran and Pakistan—both in unrest. At the head of the Bay of Bengal are Bangladesh and Myanmar—also facing instability. This is not a coincidence.

QUAD (the US, Japan, Australia, India) and AUKUS (Australia, the UK, the US) aim to contain China in the East and South China Sea, while China is entering the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), through Myanmar and Pakistan.

Bangladesh lies between China’s energy corridor (Myanmar–China) and India’s security sphere. The US has entered the Bay of Bengal through its Indo-Pacific strategy. Bangladesh is now part of 21st-century geopolitical competition.

To pressure smaller nations, regional or global powers often engineer three conditions: security concerns, a crisis in democratic governance, and instability. Probably Bangladesh is a victim of that situation.

Bangladesh has recently indicated it may consider allowing the UN to set up a humanitarian corridor to facilitate aid in Myanmar’s Rakhine. What’s your take?

Mahfuzur Rahman: The idea of “humanitarian corridor” has been portrayed negatively here, but I believe it can have strong positive outcomes, if we negotiate wisely.

If you ignore your neighbour’s suffering, they won’t remember you in their joy. However, any humanitarian aid must serve Bangladesh’s national interest and be carried out under Bangladesh’s plan—with UN support, not the other way around.

The question is, why would the people of Arakan engage with you on the Rohingya crisis or issues like drug trafficking, human trafficking, and arms smuggling? You need to build mutual trust.

Do you have any proposals to solve the problems arising from hosting the Rohingya population?

Mahfuzur Rahman: There are two categories of problems: those caused by hosting the Rohingyas, and those concerning their repatriation. A three-dimensional strategy is needed.

First, Bangladesh should help Rohingyas develop as human capital—providing education, especially technical education, and building leadership among them.

The US has recognised the persecution of Rohingyas as genocide, which offers certain benefits. We should help them access those.

Security in the camps must be strengthened. Bangladesh must take a firm stand and measures to prevent further Rohingya influx from Arakan.

We should also engage with the Rakhine community to build trust. We can involve leaders from Bangladesh’s Rakhine and border regions in this effort.

In addition, we must work toward bilateral and regional agreements while maintaining constant dialogue with influential nations to keep the issue alive internationally.

Creating a joint economic zone at the tri-border area may help transition the local population away from a culture of conflict.

Could India’s “push-in” strategy take on a more militaristic form?

Mahfuzur Rahman: India’s security concerns extend beyond its political borders, and Bangladesh is part of its strategic security ring. India’s bottom line is that Bangladesh must not fall entirely under Beijing’s influence. The “push-in” tactic is one of many strategies to keep pressure on Bangladesh.

Whether this escalates into violence depends on how Bangladesh handles the situation.

It’s important to understand that Bangladesh is a development partner of China, not a strategic ally. Pakistan, on the other hand, is a strategic partner of China. We’ve seen China’s backing of Pakistan in its conflict with India. In any conflict between Bangladesh and India, China is unlikely to play the same role.

In light of Bangladesh’s current political crisis, we also see signs of tension in civil–military relations. Do you think this is temporary?

Mahfuzur Rahman: I don’t believe there is any problem in the trust and reliability between the people of Bangladesh and the military. But if we define civil–military relations as the relationship between the civilian and military administrations, then yes—there appears to be a lack of coordination or differing perspectives, though officially this has not been acknowledged.

I believe this is temporary. Both sides aim for democratic transition. However, given that the public perceives some strain, both administrations should work to improve their relationship.

The military wants to return to the barracks as soon as possible and focus on their primary responsibilities. Over time, the military’s interest in holding political power has decreased, which is a positive sign for a democracy-aspiring country.

From a geopolitical perspective, what kind of civil–military relationship do you think Bangladesh should have in the future?

Mahfuzur Rahman: In countries like Pakistan and Myanmar, the military effectively controls the state. In fact, there is a lack of democracy there. In such geopolitical contexts, major powers find it easier to influence or control countries with that kind of structure.

In contrast, India’s military operates under democratic control, making external interference more difficult.

In that light, I believe Bangladesh’s civil–military relationship should be one where the military is not under the control of political parties or the administration, but is instead accountable to democratic institutions.

Recently, there has been much discussion in the country about elections and reforms. How should the government proceed in balancing the two?

Mahfuzur Rahman: As I’ve said before, reforms are necessary. Reform and election preparation can go hand in hand.

The government can consult with all political parties to create a list of reform priorities alongside a roadmap for the election. It can outline which reforms must be carried out before announcing the election roadmap, which can run in parallel to election preparations, and which reforms will be undertaken by the next elected government.

Thank you.

Mahfuzur Rahman: Thank you as well.