How much of the economy that collapsed during the past government could be recouped? World Bank report says economic growth will slow in 2024-25.
Hossain Zillur Rahman: It was not necessary to wait for the World Bank report to understand the economic condition. Going to the streets and talking to people would bring similar results. There are two levels of economic conditions. The first is to bring order from the extreme disorder and the second level is to accelerate the economy. The first one is easier administratively. These include excluding corrupt people and specific sectors that waste funds, as well as making the foreign reserves stable to some extent. The government somewhat succeeded in it. But the bigger task is to accelerate the economy. It is not possible with administrative steps only. The main issue here is to create an environment for those who drive the economy, what incentives will be for them and fix those, as well as to create a place of confidence for them. Our private sector entrepreneurs are not in need of money, their main demand is that the government creates a place of confidence and a business environment.
You have talked about confidence and the environment. What should be done specifically to create an environment of confidence?
Hossain Zillur Rahman: Security is a big issue here. It is not really visible that the extortion has been stopped. Besides, corruption is not the lone issue for the environment of confidence. Institutional process, quick decision, the necessity, and taking the right decision at the right time – I emphasise these issues to indicate the environment. We from the PPRC are trying to innovate a new index for the business environment along with the corruption index. It is a bigger index than corruption for general businesspersons. Not only for businesses, citizens also face harassment at all places to receive state services.
Our political criminalisation is said to have gone away after 5 August but economic criminalisation still exists. No effective measure of the government is visible against it.
Hossain Zillur Rahman: Economic criminalisation – it is also a problem to remain trapped in such a world. Two issues need to be looked into together – facing economic criminalisation and accelerating the economy. Here, the economy will not be seen only through the lenses of crime and punishment. Mobile financial service provider Nagad can be seen as a big example of economic criminalisation. The company was operating using the government influence and violating rules. The initiative that the interim government has taken to reform Nagad is also stalled. Economic criminalisation can be brought under control through administrative steps. Here intelligence, strategic measures and businesspersons’ concerns need to be considered. These tasks will have to be carried out keeping in mind that the supply chain remains okay. There is a big issue of competency for policy operation and state operation here.
How much competence has the government shown in this aspect in five months of assuming the office?
Hossain Zillur Rahman: The outcome speak volumes. Law and order is not restored, harassments are reportedly taking place and extortion continues. Many people say that tangible corruption has dropped. That is the government officials say they are not indulging in corruption. But the reality is they are not also working. Procrastination in decision making is seen everywhere. Besides economic stability and economic advancement come as a third issue of relief on people’s daily lives. The movement started due to unemployment of youth. But where is employment? It is true that nothing can be changed overnight but there must be a specific strategy for creating employment. But I don’t see any such strategy. Inflation is a big problem too.
Prothom Alo :
The government raised VAT on several services and products and also considering a hike in the price of industrial gas. We see the government walking on the old paths.
Hossain Zillur Rahman: We have seen interim government also choosing that known path as an easier way. We borrowed heavily and signed international deals. Many of them are unethical but there is no scope to deny those on legal grounds. We have some obligations and here lies the matter of innovation. This is a time to show creativity at a double pace but a big deficit is visible here. Many experienced people have gathered in the government but where are their footprints?
It is a reality that the interim government does not do much with the private sector. The necessity of those who will drive the wheel of the economy must be heard. Several specific groups of the private sector discuss for their interest only. Initiatives are necessary to involve the entire business community not only several known faces. The place of confidence will start once their speeches are heard. Now their speeches are not being heard much. What their sorrow and grief, anger, demand, and specific advice – these will come out once discussions are held with them.
There is even a business representative in the government?
Hossain Zillur Rahman: Is the inducting of a business representative in the government a solution? If someone calls it a solution, what can be a bigger bureaucracy than this? It is a final parochial bureaucratic solution. We have seen such bureaucracy almost everywhere. Like the list of the July-August victims has not been completed yet, and the word verification is being used here but verification is well known bureaucratic word. Here comes the question of attention and willingness. Many will say there is obviously a good will but no airy good will work. On the contrary, we have seen that list of the officials being deprived of posts is getting ready quickly and they are getting promoted too. So, where is the priority here then?
Do you as an economist want to give any advice to the interim government?
Hossain Zillur Rahman: I have said this before initiatives must be taken to hold talks not only with known businesspeople but also the greater business community including small and medium businesspersons. The interim government has entered into a self-contradiction from the beginning and that they imposed on themselves. The mistake that the government has made is to put bureaucrats on driving seat from the beginning. On one hand, there is talk of greater change, yet those who were supposed to be changed as part of the agenda of this upheaval have been placed in the driver's seat.
You visited Sri Lanka recently. How is Sri Lanka recovering after standing on the brink of the edge? What lessons can we take from Sri Lanka?
Hossain Zillur Rahman: An important narrative on political and economic transition is on the making in Sri Lanka. We have a lot to learn from Sri Lanka, which also borrowed USD 200 million from Bangladesh, but they repaid the loans. I had a discussion with Sri Lanka's health and mass media minister and political spokesperson Nalinda Jayatissa. The new government passed just two months, and they reduced the number of ministries from 40 to 24. There are still problems related to inflation but they brought it to a tolerable level. There is no magic formula. They have turned public participation into a very excellent and effective strategy. Their cabinet consists of youths but they are full of experience. The first lesson that I have brought from Sri Lanka is that if we want to fix the economy so those who work on the economy like the finance advisor and governor are not the lone players. An atmosphere will have to be created and that is a greater task. This greater task is being carried out as a team in Sri Lanka.
A difference of opinion appears among the interim government and student leaders with political parties. How do you see it?
A section of the youth wants to form a political party and we support it. Not only one, but several parties can be formed. A new political power led by the youths is also positive for our society. However, one thing should be kept in mind that any political party should stand by being accountable to the people and society. It is not the right way to form any political party just by taking advantage of being close to the state and power.
Did not autocratic Sheikh Hasina reign with an iron fist? But it was unknown entities who ousted Sheikh Hasina. One thing has been established that those interested in doing politics in Bangladesh have to consistently pass the test of accountability. It would not be appropriate if anyone tries to do politics just to be part of power.
Four out of 11 reform commissions have submitted their reports on state reforms. The report of the commission for reforming the constitution and electoral system has spawned much discussion in the political arena. What is your analysis?
I want to focus more on which problems the commissions shed light on and try to suggest a way out rather than discussing positives and negatives. Have the people’s aspirations derived from the July mass uprising have been reflected on these reports? One of the points was centralisation of power while another is how to bring balance of power. How to do away with the unilateral power centering the prime minister is also a question. The question of balance of power is also involved here. A balance can be struck by empowering the local government. It is also important for decentralisation. Initiation of local government election under party symbol in 2015 completely ruined it.
This is why the question of political renewal has arisen. A credible election is that renewal of government structure. Our caretaker system of government had its loopholes. But an autocratic system would not have emerged if a caretaker government was in place. This political renewal is needed at the state level as well as for creating political leadership. It is important to create scope for emergence of new leadership. Overall, we must establish pluralism in society, so that no one is left out. Here, the question of emergence of young leadership is of paramount importance.
Let’s assume the aspirations you mentioned are in the commission report. But how will these be implemented?
For this, we need to increase the capacity of the state. We need to increase the efficiency of the state institutionally. We have a large bureaucracy. But I see more interference from development partners in the policy level of the state. Development partners have huge presence in our healthcare and education sectors. This is not much discussed but this should have been. Capacity building is important if we are to consolidate our position on the global stage. Another important issue is that we must do away with political malpractice.
Our professional institutions have become party institutions. They are busy protecting coterie interests more than professional competence. It should be pondered as to which of these five indicators are implementable, which is necessary and which needs more discussion. There is no consensus on many reform issues. By abolishing the local government bodies after assuming power, the government has actually given additional responsibility to bureaucrats.
Again, the government has taken bold steps in many areas. During the Awami League government, two departments were created in the home ministry to increase the power of the police. The interim government has merged them. Many more could have been done; but the government did not. Some of the reform proposals can be implemented right now. Some need further discussion.
You mentioned doing away with political malpractices. But the commission report has many suggestions and recommendations
It spoke about democratisation of the political parties, which I think somewhat theoretical. This cannot be done from outside. Political parties have to shoulder that responsibility. Political activists need to be more trained and competent.
You talk about restructuring political parties but in reality usurpation is yet to stop. New faces replaced old ones.
Why should the usurpation continue? It is the government’s duty to stop that usurpation. Where is the police? It is the duty of the government to send a message to stop this practice. The government is not weak. It had the tacit mandate of the whole nation. They failed to leverage this popularity. Not only extortion, another issue is favouritism. Meritocracy has again taken the back seat. This happened for positioning the bureaucracy in the driving seat.
Constitution reform commission recommended lowering the minimum age for competing in election to 21 years from existing 25.
There is a debate whether this has been proposed to give student leaders a chance to compete in the election. But I saw this is in place in many countries. We need a strong consensus on this issue. The commission also recommends 10 per cent of representation of youth in the parliament. So it is also a quota. The problem with quota is it does not fulfill the aims it introduced for. Youths must be given priority and a chance to serve. But they need to be made competent too. The education system is in disarray on the one hand while the youth are being made part of the government on the other. The proposal gives an idea that the youth should be part of the power. This will create controversy. The youth at first spoke about political literacy. The youth must be brought to the fore. That is in the process of power, not just to share power. It is the responsibility of the state, political parties and civil society to create this space. We also have the responsibility to prepare the youth for playing their role in changing society. PPRC has undertaken some programmes to this end.
Civil society is not seen playing the same active role as it did in the movement against the autocracy before 5 August despite various limitations.
One of the major reasons is that many members of the civil society have become involved with the work of various reform commissions. That is good work. But the main responsibility of civil society is to strongly voice the needs of the mass people and society. Now the strong and independent voice of citizens is not heard so stridently. We pay less attention to this. Civil society will not just give advice; rather they will show the state where it is lacking.
Thank you
Thank you