Myanmar regime’s legitimacy crisis deepens

“In planning the overthrow of the civilian government, coup organisers surely planned contingencies to counter international pressures, condemnations, sanctions etc. But things do not seem to be going quite by the military dictatorial era play book.” This was the concluding remark in my article ‘Walking with a few friends’ (Prothom Alo English online, 29 October 2021).

Besides diplomatic setbacks in the early days of the coup, the military regime suffered a couple more massive diplomatic blows in a row after it was left out of the ASEAN Summit held on 26-28 October 2021. China also banned the Myanmar general from attending the ASEAN Summit it hosted on 22 November 2021.

The United Kingdom decided not to allow Myanmar’s military minister to attend the G-7 and ASEAN foreign ministers in-person meeting due to be held in December 2021 in London, but only a non-political representation via video. The United Nations General Assembly, in consensus with China and Russia for the first time adopted a resolution on Rohingyas, “The Situation of Human Rights of Rohingya Muslims and Other Minorities in Myanmar”. The resolution, although not binding on Myanmar, is a testimony of the international community’s concern to end the ethnic crisis.

The same article also mentioned the military regime’s wariness on the possibilities of ASEAN leaders engaging National Unity Government (NUG), Myanmar’s shadow government, in the post summit diplomatic development. That’s what exactly is happening. Apart from banning Senior General Min Aung Hlaing from attending the ASEAN Summit, the bloc, in the post summit diplomatic development, invited NUG’s Minister for Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation to represent Myanmar in the ASEAN international conference on climate and disaster held on 23-24 November 2021. None from the military regime was invited to represent Myanmar.

China lobbied ASEAN member countries for the junta to join the China-ASEAN summit. Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Brunei have agreed to maintain the same position as the ASEAN summit i.e. to bar Senior General Min Aung Hlaing from attending the meeting but allow a non-political figure to represent Myanmar. Indonesia has taken a tougher stand not to allow Myanmar military’s representation at the political level until democracy is restored.

The Chinese bid to include Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in the summit was to give the regime legitimacy internationally. Although China accepted the bloc’s position, ASEAN’s refusal to Myanmar Commander-in-Chief’s presence was a diplomatic embarrassment for China. Such embarrassment was the result of the coup leader’s diplomatic tussle over ASEAN’s five-point consensus to restore democracy in Myanmar.

The bloc has taken an ethical position which it cannot reverse at the cost of its reputation and credibility as a true regional organisation. Philippines Foreign Minister Teodoro Locsin said before the October 2021 summit that,“by continuing with neutrality over the Myanmar issue, our credibility as a true regional organisation disappears… We’re a bunch of guys who always agree with each other on worthless things.” Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said the decision to ban the Myanmar was a "difficult but necessary decision to uphold ASEAN's credibility".

On the other hand, the military regime remains defiant to ASEAN call to facilitate the path to democracy and does not show any sign to compromise in fear of losing its dominance over Myanmar politics. Therefore, the diplomatic the stand-off between ASEAN and Myanmar military is most likely to continue. In this imbroglio, will China continue its support for military rule in Myanmar to risk its wider geopolitical and geoeconomic interests or push Myanmar for a political compromise? According to Josh Kurlantzick, Southeast Asia fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, the military’s power grab in Myanmar is a “disaster for Beijing for the most part”.

* Mohammad Abdur Razzak is a retired Commodore of Bangladesh Navy and a security analyst. He can be reached at [email protected]