India’s latest airstrike in Pakistan, carried out just after midnight on Tuesday and into the early hours of Wednesday, is tragic—but not entirely surprising. Over the last 15 years, and particularly following the recent terror attack in Pahalgam, war-like fervour has been building up in Indian public sentiment. A retaliatory strike on Pakistan seemed almost inevitable.
The Pakistanis were anticipating it. Their stock market had been steadily falling amid fears of an Indian strike. Through this action, the BJP government in India has partially satisfied public demands for retaliation. Politically, the move has also allowed them to save face. Yet a crucial question remains—has this strike made India any safer? Starting a war is always easier than ending one.
Lack of international support for India’s attack
The brutal bloodshed in Pahalgam drew widespread global condemnation. However, even two weeks after the incident, India failed to provide credible post-investigation evidence to support its claims. As a result, India has struggled to gain international support for blaming Pakistan. Neither the US nor Russia—India’s allies—have publicly held Pakistan accountable for the attack. This adds weight to the argument that India’s retaliatory airstrike on 6 May could be interpreted internationally as an act of aggression.
Just as the 26 victims in Pahalgam were innocent victims of terrorism, those killed by Indian bombing in Punjab and Azad Kashmir may also be considered victims of state terror. It's hard to dismiss the logic behind that viewpoint. Likewise, the Indian civilians dying in Pakistan’s retaliatory shelling are casualties of an escalating war hysteria.
Those actually responsible for these deaths in both countries—the rulers, the general, and the media bosses—will not go to the battlefield. They have never been in the past. The people who will die or be injured along the borders and within both countries are the poor from all segments of society—some in uniforms, others not.
These unfortunate souls will become the subjects of emotional content flooding YouTube, while in the background, both countries will quietly increase their military budgets once again. The influence of the military bureaucracy will grow stronger than ever, and religious and ethnic frenzy will reach new heights across society. Meanwhile, even though ordinary Hindus, Muslims, and Sikhs have no direct stake in the war, they will begin to view each other with renewed suspicion and distrust.
Across South Asia, it's important to note that the RSS approaching its 100-year anniversary. Its current ideological agenda is crystal clear: to legally declare India a Hindu nation. This is no secret. BJP is aiming to win 350–400 seats in the next Lok Sabha. Despite building a grand temple on the Babri Masjid site, they didn’t get expected results in Uttar Pradesh. They have now revised their political and military strategies.
Pakistan has already shut down schools, markets, and institutions in parts of Punjab and Azad Kashmir. India will likely have to follow suit in some areas. In the short term, this war will empower right-wing forces across South Asia, and its consequences will primarily harm the poor—both directly and indirectly.
Across America and Europe, the rise of far-right nationalists in politics is gaining momentum, and they will likely view this war as the rise of their South Asian allies. As a result, the business of selling military equipment in those countries will also thrive. With the help of the Modi administration, the Trump and Israeli governments have successfully diverted global attention away from their brutal actions in Gaza and redirected it toward South Asia. Regardless of what Trump says publicly, the 6 May 'Operation Sindoor' has been a welcome development for them.
Modi-Shah alliance strengthens
The ongoing war is elevating right-wing dominance across South Asia, and this is evident in India, where calls to expel or silence secular forces are being made repeatedly. Even the country’s main opposition party preemptively offered full support to the government’s strike on Pakistan and has already issued statements congratulating the move. This desperate attempt to remain politically relevant will ultimately serve to strengthen the BJP-RSS supremacist politics in a significant way.
Nearly all of India’s media are portraying the strike on Pakistan as an attack on a 'terrorist base'. It is as if they view all of Pakistan in Pakistan as terrorists. Such a dangerous mindset poses serious risks for South Asia's future. On the other hand, for the first time in history, the RSS-BJP alliance faces virtually no ideological opposition across India. They have managed to equate war-mongering with political strategy and present it as the only path forward for the nation.
The alarming possibility is that the BJP could exploit this war-like situation to call for early elections, win a large majority in the Lok Sabha, and then amend the Constitution to officially declare India a Hindu state—leaving the country’s secular forces with no effective recourse.
In the past the commentators used to say that war begins where politics ends. But the reality is that many political ideologies actively pursue war. Throughout history, many political movements have been cultivated with blood.
Across South Asia, it's important to note that RSS is approaching its 100-year anniversary. Its current ideological agenda is crystal clear: to legally declare India a Hindu nation. This is no secret. The BJP is aiming to win 350–400 seats in the next Lok Sabha. Despite building a grand temple on the Babri Masjid site, they didn’t get expected results in Uttar Pradesh. So, they have now revised their political and military strategies.
What they need now is a heightened, anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim war environment. This has already socially cornered the Congress Party and other major opponents. Rahul Gandhi has effectively surrendered to Modi and Amit Shah’s political and military maneuvers. The Sangh Parivar has embarked on capitalising on the Pahalgam episode in the best possible way.
Right-wing surge serves US strategic interests
Modi’s latest move is also strategically beneficial to the US. Although Washington has outwardly distanced itself from the conflict and Trump called the attack disappointing, the more China sides with Pakistan, the closer India will move toward the US—a development America welcomes. India also needs the US, and this polarisation aligns with the broader US agenda of countering China.
After achieving strategic objectives in Ukraine and the Middle East, the US is preparing its own society to view China as the next major adversary. India’s policy toward Pakistan will play supportive role. As a result, military tensions are spreading across South Asia and the Arabian Sea—undermining the region’s potential to emerge as a self-reliant economic zone. Trump's trade wars had prompted South Asian nations to consider strengthening intra-regional trade, but this war is now a major setback to that vision.
Multiple risks for Bangladesh
This ongoing war poses several risks for Bangladesh. Both warring countries will try to pull Bangladesh to their side. The danger lies in the fact that Bangladesh currently has no elected government, and there is no institutional platform for the public to express their opinions. Any reaction from the Bangladeshi public could be interpreted by India or Pakistan as a sign of support or hostility.
For over seven months now, anti-Bangladesh rhetoric has been intensifying across India. These propagandists may now try to present Bangladesh as an enemy alongside Pakistan. In this situation, both the Bangladeshi government and civil society must respond with caution. Discussions with Myanmar over humanitarian corridors should also be put on hold for now. Bangladesh must remain on high alert to prevent sudden border push-ins.
*Altaf Parvez is a researcher about history. The article is of the writer's opinion.
*This article, originally published in Prothom Alo print and online edition, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam.