The interim government has completed six months and has indicated that elections will be held by December. Professor Muhammad Yunus, however, disclosed in a recent interview with The National that the required reforms may take another three months. The main six reform commissions have already submitted their reports.
Discussions on the reform proposals have formally begun between political parties and the National Consensus Commission. An electoral atmosphere is supposed to be created in the country, and this situation is meant to bring relief. However, there is noticeable uncertainty and discomfort in the country's politics.
Why is there uncertainty and discomfort? The general answer is that everyone is now pushing for their own demands, and there is a contradiction between the desires of these forces and the forces of the mass uprising. The timing of elections, the extent of reforms, and the tenure of the government—there are major differences of opinion among the parties on these matters.
In the current situation, the main actors in the country’s politics can be identified as: the student community that led the mass uprising (excluding student organizations of other political parties), the government, the BNP (Bangladesh National Party) and its allied political parties, Jamaat-e-Islami and other Islamic political parties, and the military.
In his Victory Day speech on 16 December, Professor Muhammad Yunus mentioned elections might be held in December 2025 or June 2026. Earlier, he had suggested the tenure of the interim government might last three to three and a half years. There have been differences of opinion among the advisers of the interim government about its duration.
Although there are several parties involved in the current political situation, the calculations of the remaining parties will revolve around the student-led movement and the largest supporting political force, the BNP. Any disagreements, misunderstandings, or suspicions between student leaders and the BNP could throw the country’s politics into further uncertainty. Some signs of this are already visible. There is no alternative but for the two sides to come to an agreement on fundamental issues. Otherwise, the mass uprising poses risks of failure.
The army chief stated that elections should be held within 18 months. If elections are held in December this year, it will align with his preference. The BNP is pushing for elections as soon as possible and has called for elections to be held between July and August of this year. Their allied and like-minded political parties also want the same. The students are not in favour of quick elections; they want elections to be held after necessary reforms. Jamaat-e-Islami and other Islamic parties don’t seem to have much concern about early elections; they want to give the government time.
2.
The student-led movement that led the mass uprising has added a new dimension to politics by initiating the formation of a political party. The official announcement of the party is just a matter of time. Students have always played a vital role in mass uprisings or similar movements in the country. We know what position the Chhatra Sangram Parishad took during the 1990 uprising. However, the 2024 mass uprising is of a different nature.
In the 1990 uprising, student organizations remained loyal to the positions of their respective political parties. The political history that followed is well known. Even though the political parties made a joint declaration of three alliances, they broke the promises made to the people.
The students leading the 2024 mass-uprising do not represent any established political party. Under their leadership, other political parties and their allied organizations (including student wings) joined the mass uprising. It is clear that because the anti-discrimination student movement does not have any political affiliation, people from all walks of life joined it without hesitation. Political forces and the public who have been protesting against the government for a long time came together under the students' leadership, successfully removing a repressive ruler like Hasina.
Since the mass uprising of this time, students have been working hard to maintain their position as a force or partner in the country's politics. The interim government formed with the agreement of all political parties has student representation, even though no party representatives are included. It is clear that, in continuation of this, a party is now being formed under the leadership of the students.
Students have repeatedly stated that they do not want to fail the demands of the mass uprising. They fear that without reforms, if elections are held, the old political system will return. Considering the experience of the 1990s, this fear cannot be dismissed. No political party has followed through on implementing ‘the declaration of the framework of the three alliances’, and no one has kept the 10-point demands of the students in mind. Therefore, students are not as vocal as the BNP in demanding quick elections. They want reforms that will prevent anyone from becoming a autocrat like Hasina in the future.
On the other hand, since students are represented in the interim government, in a way, it can be considered their government too. The initiative to form a political party is thus seen by some as an attempt to form a ‘King's Party.’ One government adviser may resign and take leadership of the new party, but two student representatives will remain in the government. Hence, there will be a connection between the government and the new student-led party. This raises questions and ambiguity regarding the cooperation or influence from the government and the state machinery and the source of money.
There is no doubt that students led the uprising in July 2024. However, it is also essential to remember that the BNP and other political parties have been engaged in an anti-autocracy movement for the last 16 years. Many of their leaders and activists have lost their lives or suffered imprisonment, torture, and abductions. Claiming sole credit for anything does not ultimately lead to good outcomes. The Awami League did this with the Liberation War, and they are now facing the consequences.
3.
The conflict between the students who led the uprising and the BNP had already begun long before. On issues like the removal of the president and the declaration of the July uprising, the two sides had differing positions. Because of the BNP, the students had to backtrac. Furthermore, there is discomfort within the BNP regarding the students' activities. It is known that the BNP did not appreciate the demolition of the Dhanmondi 32 house.
The BNP has welcomed the initiative to form a student and youth party, but they are uneasy, suspicious, and distrustful about the political aspirations and party formation of the students. According to BNP’s acting chairman, Tarique Rahman, if anyone seeks state or administrative assistance in forming a political party, it will disappoint the public. The written statement given by BNP during a meeting with Muhammad Yunus also raised the same concern.
After the fall of the Awami League in the mass uprising, BNP emerged as the largest political force in the country. In the previous calculations, the fall of the Awami League meant the return of the BNP. However, with the passing of time, doubts are growing within them. The BNP believes that some parties are trying to ensure that they do not come to power. Tarique Rahman also mentioned that there is a conspiracy in progress. The question is: Is this really happening? In response, it can be said that BNP, being a major party, certainly has the capacity to gauge what is happening behind the scenes in politics.
The BNP believes that students are in favour of postponing elections for the convenience of forming a party. On the other hand, the BNP likely knows that the longer the election is delayed, the more difficult it will be for them. After the fall of the Awami League, the BNP thinks that it will come to power, and its local leaders and activists have already become active. Many have been involved in occupation, extortion, and other corrupt activities. These incidents are happening across the country. Even the declaration of a tough stance or actions like expulsion at the central level are not stopping them. These activities are certainly going to reduce the BNP’s popularity and votes.
The mass uprising has generated hope for a new kind of politics. The people of the country no longer want to return to the old politics. If the top leadership of the BNP understands this, the local leaders and general supporters clearly do not take it into account, as evidenced by their actions. The question is, if elections are held quickly and the BNP comes to power, will it be able to control its unruly local leaders and activists? Or will the same old politics—BNP replacing Awami League—return? This is a question now emerging in the minds of the general public, and they are fearful of a return to the old politics.
4.
Although there are several parties involved in the current political situation, the calculations of the remaining parties will revolve around the student-led movement and the largest supporting political force, the BNP. Any disagreements, misunderstandings, or suspicions between student leaders and the BNP could throw the country’s politics into further uncertainty. Some signs of this are already visible. There is no alternative but for the two sides to come to an agreement on fundamental issues. Otherwise, the mass uprising poses risks of failure.
**AKM Zakaria is deputy editor at Prothom Alo
** This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Rabiul Islam