Can Myanmar make a nuclear bomb?

Neighbouring countries have no end of concern over Myanmar. Tension rises further if news is heard of uranium, an element used to make nuclear weapons, is being traded in Myanmar. This is happening currently. It is being reported in the foreign media that uranium is being traded in Myanmar. The question is, whether the matter is limited to trade only or they have any other programme as a country in this regard?

Ahead of recent newspaper reports, it was published that there are uranium mines in several places including the Shan state. They also get uranium as a by-product of gold mines. As a mineral resource, uranium has a demand worldwide as it is used in nuclear bombs.

Myanmar's Shan state is a rebel dominated area. In the area where it is said there is a uranium mine that is dominated by the 'Restoration Council of Shan State'. In the outside world, they are known as 'RCSS'. The name of its arms wing is Shan State Army-South. Its leader is Yawd Serk--a famous rebel leader.

The rise of Yawd Serk is from Golden Triangle's godfather Khun Sa's warrior society. On one hand he is one of the main characters of narcotics trade and Shan nationalism.

Name of Yawd Serk is being mentioned in the reports of uranium smuggling in Myanmar. It is being said he and his party RCSS gave responsibility to 'yakuza' mafia to sell uranium and collect modern arms including missiles.

US intelligence spent four years and identified as a fake Iranian general and were able to contact Takeshi Ebisawa of the syndicate in Thailand. The matter was leaked in this way. Ebisawa along with several of his associates are in custody of America.

Questions have naturally been raised over the veracity of these incidents. Questions have especially been raised about adding the yakuza of Japan to these incidents. Although these people are called terrorist mafia openly, the Japanese have a secret admiration for them. The administration in Japan also respects yakuzas for their nationalistic character.

Although they are mafia, they think they have a responsibility to look after the interests of Japan across Asia.

Yakuzas naturally don't view the West in a positive light. The West also criticises them strongly. However, much credible information of uranium smuggling has come from the US. They said the samples of uranium the Washington agents collected from the Japanese syndicate are suitable for making nuclear bombs.

Information published in 'Frontier Myanmar' says in connection with Yawd Serk, Ebisawa has 2000 kg Thorium-232 and 100 kg U-308 (Triuranium octaoxide) of Shan. With the help of Thai police, the US has examined samples of these in their labs.

If the speculations of uranium trade are true, there are two reasons for alarm. First, the government is not controlling all the mine areas. Some uranium mines are under the control of rebels- the rebels who are desperate for funds. As a commodity uranium would not be an unnatural source of funds for them. Also, there is a reason for tension over the mines controlled by the government as the military government is not transparent in its activities, and they are also trying to overcome the economic crisis by all means. Yawd Serk, meanwhile, denied his involvement. He has said he doesn't know what uranium is.

'Frontier Myanmar' in a report last April said uranium of Shan province seized from Japanese yakuzas was refined at the primary level. The question is, where did this refinery take place? Is there that technology inside Myanmar?

It was heard many times in the past that Myanmar has a 'dream' to make a nuclear bomb. The country, which has uranium, has an advantage for this aspiration. Myanmar's armed forces Tatmadaw once had an 'atomic unit'. Besides, it is heard that North Korea and Russia have cooperation in this regard. But there was a question over the credibility of these activities of the country.

Moreover, during the rule of Aung San Su Kiy, Myanmar joined an international initiative to stop the test of nuclear bombs. In the face of global boycott in October 2022, Russia declared to establish a nuclear power plant for 'peaceful necessity' Recently, there is news, Bamar army officers have taken training in Moscow and some of them are studying this technology. In such a backdrop, the recent news of the uranium trade has spread tension all around.

News for the first time was published in 2004 that the US maintained strong vigilance over Myanmar for making nuclear bombs. Washington suspects that North Korea may provide cooperation with Bamar generals in this programme.

In November 2008, doubt intensified as a 17-member team led by Myanmar's General Soe Win visited Pyongyang and a location where North Korea is believed to have stored their nuclear arms in a valley. In 2010, a general of Tatmadaw first admitted they were trying to get this technology from North Korea.

Meanwhile, the Myanmar government in a statement said they have no intention to make nuclear bombs, but they have the right to develop this technology for 'peaceful necessity'.

After this statement, the doubt has not decreased. At least, the incident of identifying the Japanese syndicate proves that the US continues its surveillance.

However, nothing can be said finally about the mystery of nuclear power in Myanmar. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) is a famous organisation to resolve any tension on nuclear security. This organisation in an investigation has said they have not found any proof that Myanmar has a project for making nuclear arms. This does not mean that Myanmar does not have such a type of project. In particular, the country's relation with North Korea intensifies the suspicion.

The question is, how refined uranium is being found in Myanmar amid this uncertainty? Even of the matter of Myanmar creating a nuclear bomb is written off as a distant dream, the administration there has become weak due to the civil war raging there. In such circumstances, a subversive syndicate for an element like uranium is certain a matter of grave concern for countries in the neighbourhood.

* Altaf Parvez is a researcher on history.

*This article, originally published in Prothom Alo print and online editions, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam.