This Prothom Alo survey helps us understand the present moment and the approaching future with a fair degree of realism. It is a necessary effort. In many countries, different organisations occasionally conduct such socio-economic surveys.
I have seen two or three such survey reports published annually in Karachi’s Dawn, which help readers grasp the dynamics of Pakistani society. One of the strongest appeals of Dawn within South Asian media is precisely this kind of work.
Prothom Alo has also published similar surveys in the past. However, for several years I had not seen them release any political survey.
For any newspaper in Bangladesh to conduct such a survey with full professional rigour is financially difficult. The print media market here is quite small. Their leadership’s scope for taking bold decisions is also constrained for various social reasons. Against such a backdrop, this survey is exceptional.
Though its sample size is small, statistical methods suggest that when urban–rural, gender, age, profession and other variables are proportionately included, even a small sample can provide meaningful indications of social trends. This survey indeed offers some such insights.
From the respondents’ views, four or five points can be highlighted. For instance, 1,342 people evaluated the government’s performance over the past 15 months. Seventy-five per cent said the government has failed to create employment.
The foundation of the youth-led uprising was built around the employment crisis. Public dissatisfaction with the government is clearly reflected here. Yet for unknown reasons, discussions on jobs and employment abruptly disappeared from the political arena — which is rather puzzling.
In the survey, 63 per cent of respondents credited the government with maintaining religious tolerance. This may seem surprising to many, considering the widespread incidents of shrine demolitions and even burning bodies exhumed from graves.
In the survey, 63 per cent of respondents credited the government with maintaining religious tolerance. This may seem surprising to many, considering the widespread incidents of shrine demolitions and even burning bodies exhumed from graves.
After the mass uprising, we witnessed indiscriminate attacks on the homes and properties of minorities in various marginal areas. Reading this data alongside those realities forces us to confront a grim truth.
It is normal that the majority religious group would dominate the sample. It may be that the plight of religious minorities or the humiliation of shrines and khanqahs are no longer regarded as significant issues by this majority. If a majoritarian culture of intimidation has indeed grown in Bangladesh after the uprising, survey methodology cannot avoid capturing it objectively. Statistics does not instruct us on moral duties — it merely presents realities. But upcoming Bangladesh must possess the moral strength to interpret every social truth. If the politics of violence is truly beginning to swell within society, then surveys like this do help identify it early.
Around 66 per cent of respondents viewed the government’s role in protecting freedom of expression positively. This also seems realistic. Supporters of the former ruling party may cite actions taken against them as counterexamples. According to 75 per cent of respondents, the interim government has also failed to free society from the pervasive culture of corruption left behind by the former regime. This is a major area of concern, contrary to the expectations of the mass uprising.
People also express concerns about law and order. About 81 per cent expect the military to play a “good” role in maintaining order during elections. This may indicate an increasing social reliance on the armed forces or a sense of trust in them. But other data shows that the political and economic structure is becoming increasingly fragile. There are several important messages here. For example, in the last 15 months, about 42 per cent of people have seen their income fall. This experience is shared across lower- and middle-income groups.
Income crises generally have three dimensions: reduced employment opportunities, higher prices, and lower wages. When all three occur simultaneously, poverty increases. The World Bank and other reliable sources have recently said that Bangladesh is moving in the opposite direction in terms of poverty reduction. The survey found only about 12 per cent reporting increased income over the last 16 months, whereas 42 per cent said their income declined. At the same time, about 79 per cent said their household expenses have increased. The combined impact of these two trends points toward something dangerous.
The question is: if this is the reality, how will Bangladesh achieve — or justify — its graduation from least developed country (LDC) status in 2026?
A major requirement for LDC graduation is progress in income and resilience against economic vulnerabilities. Since 1991, Bangladesh was clearly advancing on those fronts. But in the past three to four years, and especially in the experiences reflected in this 15-month survey, employment is not growing, and a large segment of society is earning less.
If Bangladesh becomes overly eager to adopt the label of a developing country in such a situation — and if that results in losing the preferential benefits LDCs enjoy in the export sector — employment challenges will intensify. NGO funding also tends to decline once a country moves up.
Perhaps someone wants to divert attention away from political-economic trends. But can social crises ever truly be concealed? What does the experience of “Red July” tell us?
Considering all this, this small survey by Prothom Alo offers many necessary lessons for Bangladesh’s current and future policymakers.
The survey was conducted last October. One portion shows that dissatisfaction with income and employment over the last 15 months is highest in metropolitan areas, including Chattogram and Sylhet. At the same time, we observe in politics and social media that certain actors are deliberately engaging Bangladesh’s society — especially urban youth — in debates around religion, morality, and culture. Perhaps someone wants to divert attention away from political-economic trends. But can social crises ever truly be concealed? What does the experience of “Red July” tell us?
* Altaf Parvez, researcher