Who will win: Insights from a political demography model

With all the current debates on how the US presidential elections will impact the world order, there are two ways of answering the question. Firstly, it will depend on the final result of the election, and then the consequences on the world, South Asia and Bangladesh may be determined accordingly.

What is the forecast for the election? It is crucial here to set apart two indicators that may not be as relevant to an accurate prediction as is normally portrayed in the media. The first such indicator is opinion polls. These polls are prone to social desirability bias, a tendency of some respondents to report an answer in a way they deem to be more socially acceptable than would be their "true" answer. This is commonly known as Bradley effect in the US, implying that some white voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. This is derived from the Los Angeles Mayor, Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.

Another preoccupation is with national popular vote, the sum of all the votes cast nationwide, which is irrelevant in the US context, despite the longstanding debate in favour and against of the system since the president and the vice president are elected based upon electoral college, as per Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the USA Constitution, which now stands at 538, simply adding up 100 senators and 435 state representatives and 3 electors for Washington DC, following the 23^rd amendment to the Constitution. Nevertheless, it precludes many, living in US territories and others, including felons in many states, to exercise their democratic rights.

The presidential election can in fact be predicted using a new model – a political demography model – that incorporates a seven-point framework, that can also be extended for elections beyond the U.S. elections, modified for the idiosyncrasies of each context. This is based upon historical and structural factors.

The first determinant is the momentous issue of racial demographics, facing the US. In 1980, white residents comprised almost 80% of the national population, with black residents accounting for 11.5%, Latino or Hispanic residents at 6.5%, and Asian Americans at 1.8%. New data shows that, by 2019, the white population share declined nearly to 60.1%. The Latino or Hispanic and Asian American population shares exhibit the most marked gains, at 18.5% and nearly 6%, respectively. A shift in racial demographics is a signifier. The blacks have been loyal to the party of Republican President Abraham Lincoln, but shifted to the Democratic Party as the latter became identified as the party of civil rights.

Despite being the top in academia in the world, there is an apparent divide, where around two-thirds of registered voters in the US (65%) do not have a college degree, though the share of the college degree has increased to 36% from 24% in 1996. Whilst surveys show that voters with a college education break in the favour of Democrats, the younger college-educated population also has the lowest turnout. This change in the leaning started primarily from 1960’s. There were far fewer college-educated Democrats at the time of New Deal, though it ushered in a major shift in the USA electoral map.

Thirdly, in the US demography, the percentage of voters over the age of 50 has increased, and at the same time, the percentage of first-time voters has also increased. A higher percentage of the people over 50 have votes for the Republican Party. This year they play a vital role as older people have been the victims of covid-19 while the younger generation is thirsty for radical ideas including free college education and medicine for all. Socialism in any variety has always been a taboo in the US, cemented by McCarthyism.

Often less talked about, but bearing equal significance, in the electoral decisions is religion, though separation of church from the state is advanced as a feature of a modern state. The share of white Christians has decreased to 18% from 21% in 2008, matching the decline of majority of registered voters in the US being Christian (64%), down from 79% in 2008, though the share of voters identifying religiously unaffiliated has nearly doubled during the same period from 15% to 28%. The shift is slow as eight-in-ten Republican registered voters is Christian (79%).

The US Constitution and major political transformations have stemmed from issues largely influenced by geographical standing from Confederacy to distribution of voting share to changing from Blue to Red and vice-versa. The rust belt, comprising Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, experiencing industrial decline, the blue-collar workers have shifted over the years, making these so-called swing states. The Sun Belt, such as Georgia, Arizona and Texas, might exhibit swings, with changing demographics. Florida since 1996 has always been carried by the winner of the election, with a small margin.

The sixth determinant is gender. The recent elections exhibit a higher percentage of female voters’ turn out. Women have remained loyal to Democrats, and fortified by the Supreme Court nominations particularly due to Roe v Wade and Obamacare (Affordable Care Act) and are in opposition to Trump’s derogatory assumptions that suburban women do not work and are habitually stay-at-home wives.

The final one, dealing with the role of the government, is the most significant. Most elections exhibit a causality between the win and the most pressing issue of the time. The pandemic is a defining moment in the globe. This is as comparable as with those of Great Depression, Vietnam War, Prohibition and the Civil War. If such pertains to be crucial to voting decision this year, this may act as a major obstacle for Trump securing the 270 Electoral College votes.

In 1932, the New York Governor Franklin Delano Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes while Herbert Hoover, a humanitarian hero for his work such as the Commission for Relief in Belgium during World War I, was squeezed to 59 as he had failed to manage the Great Depression, despite bagging 444 votes in four years ago. FDR was the first Democratic president in 80 years with a congressional majority due to the New Deal and the only President who served four times owing to bringing a massive change in the USA as the 22^nd amendment limited to a two-term.

Predictions based on the model present two scenarios for Bangladesh. If Trump administration prevails at the helm, the rise of China continues amidst the U.S. absence in multilateral systems in particular. In both cases, though, the Sino-USA relations will be characterised by that of accommodation and hedging with the incumbent being gross. Given the stresses, India will continue to pursue competitive collaboration with China as superpower in the making.

If the Biden administration assumes office, the state department will lean towards the US constitutional pathways of human rights, accountability and democracy and enhanced engagements with multilateral bodies. The democrats within Biden Administration might engage in debates to bring institutional changes in the State Department, the National Security Council and the Pentagon from the existing India-plus in its South Asian strategy to separate out India as a single entity and the countries like Bangladesh distinctively without being prejudiced to a particular country. Who will win, will be known soon.

Dr Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, a professor of economics at the development studies at Dhaka University, is the chairperson of Unnayan Onneshan, an independent multidisciplinary think-tank. [email protected]