The Argentina vs England match is 50-50, but the key lies with Messi

This is my last minute analysis before flying from the United States back to Dhaka. A World Cup semi-final is always a major test. And when it is a showdown between two fierce rivals like Argentina and England, the excitement is bound to reach another level.

This will be Argentina's first real test of the tournament. Until now, both in the build-up to the World Cup and through the quarter-finals, they have faced teams ranked relatively lower in the FIFA rankings. Switzerland, their quarter-final opponents, were the highest-ranked side they had met, at 14th. Today, second-ranked Argentina take on fourth-ranked England.

Lionel Messi will be facing England for the first time in international football. I do not believe that will create any additional pressure for a player of his stature. If there is pressure, it is more likely to affect his teammates.

England's players, including Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka, are accustomed to playing regularly for Europe's biggest clubs. Their physical style and high-intensity football will present a serious challenge for Argentina's defence and younger players.

Even so, I see this match as 50-50. It could be a rough and physical contest. Fans should be prepared for plenty of fouls and several cards. Clear-cut scoring chances are unlikely to come often. So who has the edge? I would say the outcome depends largely on Messi. If he is at his best, Argentina will have a slight advantage.

However, Argentina have shown a tendency to concede goals unexpectedly, even when controlling matches. They allowed two goals each against Cape Verde and Egypt, and one against Switzerland. Their defence has repeatedly lost concentration, and that could prove costly in this match.

England, on the other hand, have always enjoyed tremendous backing from their media, who regularly claim the Premier League is the best in the world. Yet England's only World Cup triumph came back in 1966, 60 years ago. If they reach this year's final, however, they will have a strong chance of lifting the trophy.

For Argentina to win, Messi must produce his very best. He is the game changer. Argentina's build-up play revolves around him, and he is often the player who delivers the decisive final pass. Against Switzerland, Messi failed to score and, unable to make an impact through the middle, was forced to drift out wide. If that happens again, Argentina will find it difficult to reach the final.

Julián Álvarez scored a superb winner in the quarter-final. If the understanding between Messi and Álvarez continues to improve, it will greatly benefit Argentina. Alexis Mac Allister will also have a crucial role in controlling midfield. If this trio fails to perform, Argentina's chances of reaching the final will diminish.

For England, Jude Bellingham has been in outstanding form. His ability to win possession between defence and midfield before driving forward and scoring makes him extremely dangerous. If Bellingham delivers another top performance, England could take control of the match. England's two wingers have also been impressive.

Their strength extends to the bench as well. Marcus Rashford has made a significant impact as a substitute, while Harry Kane remains one of the world's finest strikers. Much of the responsibility for containing him will fall on Lisandro Martínez and Cristian Romero. If Declan Rice is fit enough to return from injury, England's midfield will become even stronger.

Although I see the match as evenly balanced, Messi remains the central figure. Stopping him is one of football’s toughest tasks. Many of the world’s greatest coaches have tried and failed. I am eagerly waiting to see what tactical plan England manager Thomas Tuchel comes up with to deal with him.

If I were playing for England, I would look to put Argentina under pressure from the very beginning. Argentina have shown some vulnerability at wing-back, and that is where England should target them. Above all, they must keep Messi away from the ball as much as possible. Whatever happens, the football world is set to witness a classic World Cup semi-final tonight.

* Jamal Bhuyan is the captain of the Bangladesh national football team.