AL-JaPa negotiation shrouded in uncertainty

Uncertainty has heightened regarding the allocation of constituencies between Awami League and Jatiya Party in the upcoming 12th parliamentary election. The top leadership of the ruling AL has expressed doubts that GM Quader-led Jatiya Party may withdraw from the polls. Awami League has not shown any inclination for discussions on seat-sharing. 

The leadership of Jatiya Party is attempting to comprehend the sudden expression of doubt by the high levels of the government. According to several leaders of Jatiya Party, this doubt has been displayed to exert additional pressure on the party, which recently asserted its status as a more independent political entity.

Awami League president and prime minister Sheikh Hasina cast doubt on Jatiya Party’s leadership during the informal discussion after the cabinet meeting on Monday. Wishing not to be named, two ministers who attended the meeting told Prothom Alo that the prime minister said Jatiya Party cannot be trusted, and she emphasised the unpredictability of the party’s decisions.

Jatiya Party have kept Raushan Ershad and her son Rahgir Al Mahi Ershad (Saad Ershad) away from the polls, and there is no guarantee regarding the Jatiya Party's actions in the upcoming elections.

The doubt from the top leadership of the government and the Awami League sparked analysis and discussion inside the Jatiya Party, as well as in Awami Leagu. Amid such circumstances, both Awami League and Jatiya Party clarified their stance on various issues including elections, doubt and seat-sharing.

Jatiya Party secretary general Mujibul Haque said his party will be staying in the polls. Replying to a query on the remarks of prime minister, he told the journalists at the party's Banani office, “We have joined the polls to contest it, not to quit it. If someone does not believe it that’s their headache. We don’t pay attention to the question of trust.”

Awami League general secretary Obaidul Quader spoke to the journalists twice on Tuesday and made separate different remarks over Jatiya Party.

Replying to a query, Obaidul Quader, at a briefing at the party’s Dhanmondi office said, “We have continued discussions with Jatiya Party. I myself talked to Jatiya Party leaders today, Tuesday. I talked to the Jatiya Party general secretary, and our discussions continue.”

In the meantime, Jatiya Party chief patron Raushan Ershad held a meeting with prime minister Sheikh Hasina at Ganabhaban on Tuesday afternoon.

Following the meeting, Obaidul Quader expressed concerns over whether Jatiya Party will stay in the race while replying to queries from journalists at a programme at the office of Awami League’s Dhaka district unit in Tajgaon on Tuesday afternoon.

He said, “Many of our party members are concerned, people of the country are also concerned about the matter. Boycott and walkout exist in democratic elections everywhere. I cannot say right now what would happen, and perhaps it may happen.”

Despite these conflicting statements, leaders from both Awami League and Jatiya Party continue to maintain communication. A meeting was reported between the leaders of the two parties, led by Obaidul Quader and Md Mujibul Haque.

Sources present at the meeting said that leaders of Awami League presented evidence, and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina cast doubt on Jatiya Party’s participation in the polls based on that information. Awami League then wanted to know about Jatiya Party’s stance. In reply, Jatiya Party leaders said no decision to boycott the polls has been taken. After that, both parties discussed seat-sharing, and they will meet again on Thursday.

Several policymakers within Awami League expressed the view that the negotiation process between the two parties regarding constituency allocation now hangs in the balance due to lingering doubt and distrust. They also speculated that Jatiya Party might abstain from the polls if seat assurances are not provided. Despite this, Awami League appears relatively unconcerned. 

Leaders of Jatiya Party offered various interpretations of the government's expression of doubt. Some believe that the top leadership of Jatiya Party might genuinely be considering abstaining from the polls, and the government may have sensed this intention. Consequently, they brought the issue to the forefront early as a strategy to pressure Jatiya Party in that direction. Another perspective is that Awami League aims to corner Jatiya Party on seat-sharing by revealing suspicion and distrust. Additionally, there may be a strategy to create division and discord within the party. 

Raushan Ershad and her son Saad Ershad have been left out of the election as they did not file nomination. Her supporters did not get the party tickets either. Some political analysts even saw an end of Raushan Ershad’s political career. Amid this circumstance, she along with her supports went to the Ganbhaban.

Sources indicate that during the meeting with the prime minister, Raushan Ershad raised objections to the seat-sharing arrangement between Awami League and Jatiya Party chairman GM Quader. She expressed dissatisfaction, citing the lack of cooperation from GM Quader and Mujibul Haque as the reason for her and her son's inability to contest the election. 

At that moment, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina assured Raushan Ershad that the discussion on seat-sharing with GM Quader or Mujibul Haque would not continue, according to leaders loyal to Raushan Ershad.

Several leaders of Awami League including its election conducting committee co-chairmen Kazi Zafarullah were present at the meeting, but the party made no formal statement on the matter. Kazi Zafarullah could not be reached over mobile phone for comment either.

After leaving Ganabhaban, Raushan Ershad briefly spoke to the media, and her loyal supporters read out a written statement. In the statement, Raushan Ershad urged Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, also the president of Awami League, not to form any election alliance with the 'divided Jatiya Party' and GM Quader. She emphasised ensuring the participation of Jatiya Party independently to enhance the credibility of the election. 

Leaders of both Awami League and Jatiya Party held a meeting in the capital’s Gulshan on 6 December and 9 December. Besides, leaders of Jatiya Party reportedly met prime minister Sheikh Hasina at Ganabhaban on the night of 5 December.

Sources present at these meetings stated that Jatiya Party initially demanded 60 seats from Awami League but later became flexible, settling on 40 seats. While Awami League has not officially confirmed anything, there are hints that they may allocate a number of seats to Jatiya Party similar to the 2018 election. 

During these meetings, Jatiya Party also requested the withdrawal of Awami League-nominated and independent candidates who did not receive support from Awami League. 

In the 2018 national election, Awami League negotiated with Jatiya Party on 37 constituencies and left seven constituencies open. Eventually, Jatiya Party won in 22 seats. The negotiations between Awami League and Jatiya Party on seat-sharing and participation in the polls have been ongoing since 2009. 

Jatiya Party co-chairman Kazi Firoz Rashid stated on Tuesday night that they will need to wait a little longer for negotiations. “I think leaders of Awami League and Jatiya Party are proceeding very carefully on this matter.” 

The government's trust in Jatiya Party's participation in the 12th parliamentary election has been diminishing for some time. Jatiya Party chairman GM Quader has consistently expressed the belief that the election would not be free, fair, and impartial as long as the present government remains in power. Despite Jatiya Party's involvement in the electoral process, doubts persist.  

According to a reliable source, the top levels of the government have grown increasingly skeptical, fueled by several intelligence reports concerning key leaders of Jatiya Party in relation to the national election.  

A Jatiya Party leader reportedly communicated to someone over a mobile phone, expressing the view that the government, having failed to weaken BNP through the formation of Tranomul BNP and BNM, is now left with no choice but to turn to Jatiya Party. The leader also warned that if the government oversteps its bounds in seat-sharing, they may choose not to participate in the polls if necessary.

Additionally, the government has received information about another Jatiya Party leader reaching out to various individuals, possibly due to concerns about potential US sanctions. 

Given these circumstances, suspicions have risen within the government regarding Jatiya Party, prompting increased scrutiny of the top leadership of the party. In addition to maintaining communication with the government, several key figures in Jatiya Party, including its top leadership, have engaged with diplomats from friendly nations.  

For instance, a Jatiya Party leader and his wife met with a diplomat on 10 December. Two other party leaders had met the same diplomat on the preceding day, and one of them is a candidate contesting the election from the southern region, while the other is contesting from the eastern region. Furthermore, prior to her meeting with the prime minister on Monday, Raushan Ershad reportedly met with an important official from a friendly state, according to reliable sources.  

On the other hand, sources within the Awami League indicate that the top leadership of the party believes in Raushan Ershad's commitment to Jatiya Party, but they acknowledge the reality that GM Quader has solidified his leadership within the party. Consequently, Awami League policymakers are inclined to continue communication with Jatiya Party despite harboring doubts. However, some members of the ruling party see independent candidates as a potential alternative if Jatiya Party decides to boycott the election.