Mahfuj yet to make decision, Asif’s political alignment unclear

The schedule for the 13th Jatiya Sangsad (national parliament) election may be announced next week. Speculation is rife in political circles over whether the two advisers from the interim government representing the student movement, Mahfuj Alam and Asif Mahmud Shojib Bhuyain, will resign to contest the elections or remain in the cabinet. Neither of them has made their position clear so far.

Mahfuj Alam, adviser to the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, told Prothom Alo on Sunday night that he has not yet decided whether he will step down and run in the election.

Meanwhile, Asif Mahmud, adviser to the Local Government Ministry, has previously said he intends to contest from Dhaka. However, it remains unclear whether he will contest as a Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) candidate, from the National Citizen Party (NCP), or as an independent. His political alignment, according to sources, is still unsettled.

Sources say the two advisers were once again recently urged by the top tier of the interim government to resign. Similar advice was given in mid-September, when both had sought additional time. They were reportedly reminded more than once afterward as well.

A source close to Asif Mahmud says he may resign before the election schedule is announced.

However, some close to Mahfuj Alam believe he may decide not to resign and instead remain with the government until its term ends. In that case, he will not contest the election. If he does intend to run, he is expected to step down before the schedule is announced.

The Chief Election Commissioner said on Saturday that the election schedule is likely to be declared in the second week of December.

Both Mahfuj Alam and Asif Mahmud were key leaders of the anti-discrimination student movement during the July mass uprising in 2024. Their fellow activists later formed the NCP in February.

There is speculation that Asif Mahmud may contest from Dhaka-10 constituency (Dhanmondi, Kalabagan, New Market and Hazaribagh). If Mahfuj contests, he is likely to run from Lakshmipur-1, his home constituency.

BNP has not yet announced candidates for either Dhaka-10 or Lakshmipur-1. It is unclear whether this is linked to the two advisers. Jamaat-e-Islami, however, has already nominated candidates in both seats.

Conversations with several senior NCP leaders suggest that both advisers hold significant influence in the party. They had preferred that the NCP form an electoral alliance or seat-sharing arrangement with the BNP. Some informal discussions reportedly took place, but an alliance now appears unlikely.

Instead, the NCP is currently involved in efforts to form a third political coalition. Parties involved in discussions include AB Party, Rashtra Sanskar Andolan, Gono Odhikar Parishad, and Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD).

However, the inclusion of UP Bangladesh, a platform formed by former Islami Chhatra Shibir leaders, is being opposed by NCP. Meanwhile, divisions within Gono Odhikar Parishad over joining the alliance have also slowed progress.

Asif Mahmud’s family is from Muradnagar upazila in Cumilla, where he had been a registered voter. On 9 November, he applied to transfer his voter registration to Dhaka-10.

On that day, he told newspersons that it is almost certain he will contest from Dhaka, though the timing of his resignation depends on the government's decision.

There has been long-standing speculation that he wants to contest from Dhaka-10 with BNP’s backing. When asked on 9 November whether he would run as an NCP candidate, an independent or through a BNP compromise, Asif said he was considering running as an independent, adding, “Let’s see what happens.”

Earlier on 1 November, the NCP’s student wing, Jatiya Chhatra Shakti, announced its central and Dhaka University unit committees. Several former coordinators of the anti-discrimination student movement, said to be aligned with Asif Mahmud, were not included there. Since then, some of them have been publicly criticising the NCP and several top leaders.

Last Thursday, former coordinators aligned with Asif Mahmud organised a prayer gathering at Dhaka University Mosque, seeking recovery of BNP chairperson and former prime minister Khaleda Zia. Earlier, on 7 November, they visited the grave of BNP founder Ziaur Rahman to mark Revolution and Solidarity Day.

Given that BNP has not announced a candidate for Dhaka-10, the open criticism of NCP by Asif Mahmud’s supporters, and their participation in events seen as sympathetic to BNP, many political insiders believe Asif may be more inclined to contest with BNP’s support.

Attempts to reach Asif Mahmud for comment on this were unsuccessful. However, one of his close associates told Prothom Alo that he could pursue an electoral arrangement with BNP or another party or may run independently. But his chances of running under the NCP banner are slim.

A person close to adviser Mahfuj Alam told Prothom Alo on Monday that he still has not decided whether he will resign. That person also said he may reach a decision within a day or two.

Asked on Sunday night about his chances of resigning to contest the elections, adviser Mahfuj Alam replied, “I still do not know anything about that.”

Mahfuj Alam is a voter from Ramganj in Lakshmipur-1. The seat also has Shahadat Hossain Selim, chairman of LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) and a simultaneous movement ally of BNP, as an active nomination seeker.

There has been talk for some time that Mahfuj may contest from Lakshmipur-1. His brother, Mahbub Alam, an NCP joint convenor, is also active in the area.

He told Prothom Alo on Monday that Mahfuj has not yet taken any decision on resigning. “If he resigns, he will contest from Lakshmipur-1. But he has not decided under which party he would run,” he added.