About 38 per cent of Bangladesh’s remittance comes from the Gulf countries. Tensions have spread across the Middle East since the joint attack by the United States and Israel on Iran. As a result, Bangladeshi expatriates living in Middle Eastern countries are facing difficulties.
However, despite the ongoing crisis across the region, remittance inflow to Bangladesh has not yet faced any major setback. Instead, remittance has increased compared with previous periods.
Meanwhile, the dollar price has also risen slightly in the domestic market due to the crisis. Although the impact has not yet been visible, concerns remain among bank officials about remittance amid the Middle East crisis.
Former chairman of the Association of Bankers, Bangladesh and managing director of Mutual Trust Bank Syed Mahbubur Rahman told Prothom Alo that Bangladeshis living in Middle Eastern countries are anxious because of the instability. Despite that, they are sending money home ahead of Eid. Many are also sending money for ‘zakat’. As a result, remittance is increasing despite the Middle East crisis.
According to Bangladesh Bank data, remittance worth $1.92 billion came to the country in the first 11 days of March this year. Of this, $183 million arrived in a single day on 11 March. During the same period last year, remittance inflow stood at $1.33 billion. As a result, remittance increased by more than 44 per cent in the first 11 days of this month compared with the same period of March last year.
Meanwhile, remittance worth $24.374 billion came to the country between July and 11 March in the current 2025-26 fiscal year. In the same period of the 2024-25 fiscal year, the inflow stood at $19.82 billion. The growth in this case is about 23 per cent.
The strong remittance inflow has also had a positive impact on the country’s foreign exchange reserves. On 11 March, the reserves rose to $34.29 billion. According to the International Monetary Fund’s BPM-6 calculation method, the reserves stood at $29.57 billion.
Dollar price rises
The price of the US dollar has increased as banks buy remittance amid the Middle East crisis. Banks bought remittance dollars at Tk 123.30 on Thursday. Earlier on Tuesday, banks had bought remittance at up to Tk 122.90. As remittance is being bought at higher rates, the dollar price for imports has also risen to above Tk 123.50. Even a week ago, banks sold dollars for imports at up to Tk 122.50. The information was obtained from officials of several commercial banks involved in dollar trading.
Speaking to Prothom Alo on condition of anonymity, an importer said banks were taking advantage of the war in the Middle East. They suddenly increased the dollar price for imports by up to Tk 1. As a result, import costs are rising. With higher import costs, product prices will also increase at the consumer level.
Sources in the banking sector said foreign remittance houses are offering higher dollar rates because of uncertainty due to the war. Earlier, remittance dollars could be bought at Tk 122. The rate has now risen to above Tk 123. As a result, the dollar price for imports has also increased.
Former chief economist of Bangladesh Bank Mustafa K Mujeri told Prothom Alo, “The Middle East is the main source of our remittance. So the government must stand beside the workers staying in those countries. If they need any assistance there, it should be provided. That will make them feel reassured. Several countries in the Middle East have been affected by the war. Once the war ends, reconstruction work will begin in those countries. At that time, additional workers will be needed. We can utilise that opportunity.”
Meanwhile, according to an exchange rate report published by Bangladesh Bank, the dollar price has also risen there. On 3 March, the average dollar rate was Tk 122.33; by Tuesday it had risen to Tk 122.58, and by the latest Thursday it further increased to Tk 122.75.
A senior official of a private bank, speaking to Prothom Alo on condition of anonymity, said that Bangladesh Bank had communicated that the dollar rate would not rise above Tk 123. However, it is becoming difficult to maintain that level. Pressure to meet import liabilities and reduced supply will inevitably push the rate higher. In that case, dollar assistance may have to be provided from the reserves.
Eight leading economists have advised Bangladesh Bank to maintain its reserves to cope with the anticipated economic shock due to the Middle East crisis. They said the severity of the crisis is still unclear. In a global crisis, pressure would rise on both reserves and the dollar.
Therefore, reserves must be maintained. They also noted that it would not be appropriate to lower interest rates immediately; once the impending pressure eases, interest rate cuts could be considered to boost investment.
In a recent meeting with Bangladesh Bank, the economists also suggested arranging alternative sources of fuel instead of relying on the Middle East. They advised that even if global prices rise, it should not be immediately passed on to consumers, as doing so would fuel inflation.