'No instigative statements, no untoward incidents'
The opposition BNP is holding its grand rally in Dhaka on 28 October. The government has called for a counter programme. In an interview with Prothom Alo's Rafsan Galib, former professor of Dhaka University, political analyst and economist, Mahbubullah, talks about the direction in which the country's politics is headed, apprehensions concerning the election and questions in the public mind
Today, 28 October, the ruling party and the opposition are both holding their respective programmes. This was a significant day for the country's politics 17 years ago. What do you think about today's programme being held on this particular date?
It was a horrendous day on 28 October 2006. The brutalities of that day were shown on TV channels and the entire world was shocked. The opposition party at the time, now the ruling party, had called for a rally in Dhaka, with their men armed with poles and oars. It was on that day that their brutality was unleashed. It was with that day in mind that our political leaders will display their responsibility in their words and actions. They will ensure that there is nothing instigative.
Today another 28 October has arrived. The question is, will there be a repetition of such tragic and painful incidents today? The day may be the same and the contest similar, but indications are that today's programme will end peacefully and well. After all, both sides want to remain peaceful.
But there is apprehension in the public mind as both sides are holding programmes on the same day.
Those in power feel that if the opposition takes to the streets alone and holds its rally, the people may feel that the ruling party's power has exhausted. It is with this in mind that the ruling party has been organising counter programmes. The question is, can a political struggle be won with such action and counter action? Not really. It depends on the party programmes, past activities and how things will be in the future, how democratic they were in ruling the country, how far democratic values were followed, and so on. That is how people evaluate things. I would say such action and counter action in politics is instigative and harmful. Everyone wants to remain peaceful, but the words or actions of just a handful of people in a large gathering can disrupt things. That is why the programme and counter-programme trend that we see today, should be abandoned.
You say that both sides want to remain peaceful, but we are hearing instigative speeches by the political leaders.
Both sides will surely consider the consequences of violence. There is international pressure against violence and the steps being taken by the US regarding Bangladesh make it clear that there will be a movement, but that cannot be a violent one. But in mass politics, people often do not resort to violence intentionally or knowingly. A sudden incident spreads out all over. But as a peace-loving citizen, I hope that the political leaders do not make any such statement that provoke any untoward situation or instigate any negative action.
The government is adamant about adhering to the constitution in holding the election. If BNP doesn't join the polls, will the country see yet another one-sided election?
This is neither 2014 nor 2018. But water has flowed under the bridge since then. People have gained experience. I do not think that there can be a repetition of the past where the government was successfully formed without a proper election process. Bangladesh's development partners will be keeping tabs on our politics. There is no scope to dismiss their monitoring as unimportant.
The western world, the US in particular, is active with regard to Bangladesh's election. How do you view their role?
We have always had slogans calling for the fall of American imperialism. Our political awareness emerged with condemnation of their activities in countries around the world. We have criticised the US a lot and perhaps will still do so. However, we also have to see the whole picture. The US is a huge market for Bangladesh readymade garment export. We have other interests linked with them. Our elite class sends their children to the US for higher studies. So this elite class is also culturally dependent on the US. So those we have all sorts of criticism against the US, there is this dependency too. So we may criticise the US and call their actions an intervention in our affairs, but we cannot deny the reality that has emerged.
You say that it will not be possible to hold an election like the previous two. So are you expecting a fair election?
A glaring problem in our politics is lack of confidence. Elections depend on the structure of the state. How fair an election will be, or will not be, depends of the state of the police and other law enforcement agencies, the bureaucracy and how these are functioning. Government officials are being given promotions before the election, they are getting costly cars, all this is a sort of bribery. Many people feel that the government is doing all this to sway the election results in their favour. We need a state consensus or national consensus to emerge from out of this perception. I always maintain that we need a social contract to sort out all the state or national questions, problems and conflicts that exist. We need to go through extensive democratic dialogue. Perhaps this will not be possible ahead of this election, but today or tomorrow, we have to do this.
BNP has been holding rallies and meetings for the past one and a half years now. Do you think they will eventually emerge successful?
The political uprising that was seen before the liberation war has not been seen after independence. It was not just political elements who took part in those uprisings, but there was a huge participation of the common people too. When the general people take part in a political movement, then it becomes a mass uprising. In recent times this was seen in the safe road movement. What is happening now is that those who are directly affected politically, are the ones taking part in the rallies and processions. But change will not be easy unless those at a distance can be included in the movement. We now hear that persons outside of BNP have started joining the rallies. But I feel that this is not enough. It needs to be more extensive and spontaneous.