Bangladesh needs to think outside the Rohingya paradox

Recent fundamental changes in the Rakhine state of Myanmar have tremendous geopolitical and geostrategic significance for Bangladesh. The Arakan Army controls 80 per cent of the state while the Myanmar army Tatmadaw is steadily losing ground. All this has direct consequences for Bangladesh.

These observations were made by Major General ANM Muniruzzaman (retd), president of the Bangladesh Institute for Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) in his opening remarks at the policy discussion on 'The Evolving Dynamics of Rakhine State: Implications for Bangladesh.' Organised by BIPSS, the event was held on Tuesday morning at The Westin Dhaka.
In an interactive session, the issues placed before the panelists included how Bangladesh should approach the situation in Rakhine, whether it should interact with both the Arakan Army and Tatmadaw, what was the Chinese and Indian response to the situation, what the Arakan Army wants from Bangladesh, and more.

Maj. Gen. Md Shahidul Haque (retd), former defence attaché to Myanmar and former ambassador to Libya, stated that whatever is happening in Rakhine can be an opportune moment for Bangladesh, but can be dangerous if not handled properly. He felt, given the ground reality, Bangladesh needed to be in communication with both the Myanmar military government as well as the Arakan Army. He pointed out how Bangladesh had always maintained a peaceful border with Myanmar, even despite the Rohingya crisis and other incidents. But now it is time to go for offensive diplomacy, talking to both sides.

He pointed out how an abundance of small arms had even entered the Rohingya camps. The greater concern was that these weapons were being sold to others, including members of the Kuki Chin National Front.
Writer and researcher Altaf Parvez said that basically the struggle of the Arakan Army was an anti-colonial struggle, and it was a fight which they were winning. Having had directly interviewed Tun Myat Naing, the chief of the Arakan Army, Altaf Parvez said that the Arakan Army wanted friendship with Bangladesh. Trade already existed between Bangladesh and Rakhine, both formal and informal, and they wanted to expand this further.

Another often important and often overlooked aspect, he said, was the humanitarian disaster in the Arakhan (Rakhine) state and burgeoning number of internally displaced persons. For this they also sought assistance and Bangladesh had reportedly responded.

Bangladesh needs to give serious consideration to building ties with the Arakan Army, said Altaf Parvez, because it was obvious that they would be in full control of the state. The Arakan Army was even forming a naval unit there. General Muniruzzaman pointed out that the Arakan Army had taken control of the airport there, so along with land territory, they had control of air and maritime space too. India had aided and abetted the Tatmadaw, but with already 11 states falling to the Arakan Army, it is changing its tactics too.

Altaf Parvez pointed out that India and the Arakan Army didn't have good relations, but both sides were pragmatic. The Arakan Army needed money and India needed to be in Arakan. So both sides were now trying to build up relations. Already vital players in the Indian political scene were working behind the scenes, building bridges between India and the Arakan Army.
He also pointed out that while the Arakan Army was gaining its stronghold in the region, the Myanmar military was simply giving away small weapons as it was retreating, creating dangers sparked off by small arms proliferation. This was a security threat for Bangladesh.

Highlighting the importance of Rakhine in geo-economic terms, Parvez Karim Abbasi, assistant professor of economics at East West University, said the Rakhine was important to the two regional powers India and China who have huge investments there. China had vital oil and gas pipelines running through Rakhine. The gas pipeline ran from Kyaukpyu in the Rakhine state up till China's Yunan region. It was developing a Special Economic Zone in Kyaukpyu. It owned and controlled a deep sea port there too.

China was a major player in Myanmar, said Parvez Abbasi, and it maintained ties with the military government, Arakan Army and all the other warring ethnic groups. India had its Kaladan Multimodal project there and other significant investments. Thus both India and China had vital strategic interests in Rakhine.

But when it came to Myanmar, he also said, Bangladesh was paralysed by inaction. He said that Bangladesh needed to stand up for its own territorial integrity which was at stake in the unfolding events. He said that while Bangladesh needs stability in Rakhine in its own interests, China would like low intensity conflict to continue so it can exercise its clout. So, he said, if we want greater cooperation with whoever is in charge, we need to think outside of the Rohingya paradox.

At the start of the event, Shafqat Munir, senior research fellow, BIPSS, and head of BCTR, pointed out that when it came to Myanmar, Bangladesh needed to look at the bigger picture in addition to the issue of Rohingya repatriation.