Human displacement, existential threats, transboundary implications, staggering numbers of people displaced by natural disasters and security issues are just a few of the fallouts of climate change that were discussed by participants at a recent regional conference held in the capital. The conference, 'Droughts, Floods and Fault Lines: A Regional Conference on Climate Security in South Asia' was organised on 24 and 25 February by Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Strategic Studies (BIPSS) at a local held. Eminent personalities of the South Asia region participated in the two-day event, bringing their experience, views and recommendations to the table.
Climate change is a threat multiplier, said Bernd Spanier in his opening remarks. Deputy head of the European Union Delegation to Bangladesh, Spanier said this was not a 'normal' conference in the sense that a large number of members of the security forces were also participating in the event. This was positive because cooperation between civil society and security forces was vital in tackling the impact of climate change.
The region depended on monsoon rain for agro-irrigation and so climate change was leading to devastating impacts on food production
Presenting his paper on "Storms and Stability: The Security Sector's Role in Climate Security", Air Vice Marshal Mahmud Hussain (retd), former ambassador and distinguished expert at BSMRAAU, said that failure to deal with climate change and its fallout could lead to disastrous consequences. He recalled how Pakistan's indifference to the 1970 cyclone in Bhola was a factor in the disintegration of Pakistan. "Failure to respond to climate disaster leaders to political disaster," he observed.
He recommended that the military develops a comprehensive national strategy for climate change, adding that military institutions should give importance to climate science.
Dr Salma Malik, professor and external linages director at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, started her presentation with a simple question, "Will our future generations see four seasons?" She recalled how in the past there had been schools uniforms for four seasons, how the flora and fauna, the landscape, the colours, would change with the seasons. But things has changed. Now winters were hardly cold or long.
She ruled out any scope for complacence. "We need to change our mindset. By playing victim, we are absolving ourselves of what we need to do. Most of the time we simply wallow in the victim narrative." She pointed out how counties of South Asia were trapped in the politics of adaptability.
Referring to extreme smog that would settle over Delhi and Lahore, she said there was need not secondary cities to take away the pressure from mega cities. There was need to develop climate ethics, to think indigenously to resolving these issues, rather than clinging on to colonial legacies.
Lobzang Dorji, PhD research scholar, Bhutan, DCAF-Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance, presenting his paper on 'Hungry People, Angry People: Climate Security and the Fight for Food Security', referred to how climate-induced food crisis led to internal migration in Bhutan. He said that South Asia was one of the most climate vulnerable regions of the world. The region depended on monsoon rain for agro-irrigation and so climate change was leading to devastating impacts on food production. Agriculture is the backbone of South Asian economy, he observed and rising seas levels were increasing salinity in Bangladesh, leading to losses in rice production.
In Bhutan, he pointed out how food insecurity was correlated to unrest. When food supplies dwindle, prices become high. Also, he said how food shortages in Bhutan induced rural-urban migration,
He said that there was need in South Asia to adapt crops, referring to SAARC food bank and SAARC seed bank. But such initiatives were hampered by political contentions. But crop diversification remained a key element of climate adaptation strategy for food security.
Speaking on 'Powering Peace: Renewable Energy for Climate Security in South Asia', Col Nalin Herath, RSP, Director of Media, Ministry of Defence and Acting Director General, INSS, Sri Lanka, highlighted the financial aspects of tackling climate change. He spoke on blended finance, pay for performance (P4P) models, climate bonds and green bonds, public private partnership, energy as a service (EaaS) model and cross border renewable energy networks. He also spoke of the effectiveness of having a South Asia Power Pool (SAPP), regional integration of renewable energy and the benefits of cross-border electricity grids.
He recognised the challenges to such concepts in the form of financial and economic barriers, technical and infrastructure challenges, political and regulatory challenges as well as social and cultural challenges. But the only way to move forward was to address these challenges an advance ahead.
The Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan was more or less effective, while India and Bangladesh Ganges Treaty was still fraught with contentions and India was yet to sign the Teesta water treaty with Bangladesh
Bharat Bhusan, South Asia Editor, 360 Info, also associated with the Australian National University, titled his presentation, 'Water Wars or Water Wisdom? Climate Security through Resource Sustainability'. This senior Indian journalist pointed out that India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh shared a large number of rivers. Referring to the UN Treaty Water Convention 1992, he said some of the key principles regarding sharing of river waters included equitable and reasonable use, no harm rule, prior notification, sustainable management, joint management and conflict resolution.
He stressed the need for good practices about the South Asian countries sharing rivers, like developing a data and exchange system, warning levels, regular communication channels, identifying joint benefits of sharing transboundary rivers , capacity building of water management managers and sustainable financing.
He also mentioned that the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan was more or less effective, while India and Bangladesh Ganges Treaty was still fraught with contentions and India was yet to sign the Teesta water treaty with Bangladesh, despite apparently bring on the brink to do so several times. He said the concerned India-Bangladesh treaties lacked clarity, there were political tensions, upper and lower riparian issues. The Teesta treaty had been affected by domestic politics in India.
In her paper in 'Fleeing the Storm: Climate Security and Migration in South Asia', Iffat Anjum, assistant professor of the international relations department at BUP, said climate change was more than just about feeling too hot or feeling too cold. Because of climate change, human migration was skyrocketing. By the year 2050, she said, climate induced migration would surpass 80 million. The nexus between climate change and human migration was very real in South Asia.
Elaborating further on climate induced migration, she said this was forced or voluntary movement due to climate change. Climate induced migration involved legal protection, repatriation and refugee regimes. This involved both internally displaced persons (IDP) and cross border migrants (SBM).
Major General Binaj Basnyat, Strategic Analyst (Retired), Nepalese Army, spoke on 'Climate Chaos, Border Tensions: Navigating Climate Security in a Warming World'. He focused on the geopolitical and strategic dimensions of climate security. He emphasised the concept of “green diplomacy through military diplomacy”. He called upon the security forces and governments of the South Asia countries to jointly tackle the issue of global warming and climate security.
In his opening and closing remarks, Major General ANM Muniruzzaman (retd), president of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS), spoke of human displacement and climate change as an existential threat. He said it was predicted that 20 million to 30 million people in Bangladesh would be displaced by 2050 due to climate change. The transboundary implications were as staggering as the numbers. Human displacement due to climate change would bring destabilisation all over the world. In fact, he said, certain countries would be completely wiped off the face of earth, the Pacific islands and the Maldives being cases in hand.
Time is running out and he said that there was need for an urgent call for action now, so that things should not culminate in human extinction. He urged stakeholders to invest in climate resilience, sustainable development, and international cooperation to mitigate security threats posed by climate change.
Also moderating the various sessions of the conference were Mizan R Khan, technical lead, IDC Universities Consortium on Climate Change, Farah Kabir, country director, Action Aid Bangladesh, Parvez Karim Abbasi, assistant professor of economics at East West University and Shafqat Munir, senior research fellow, BIPSS.
Members of the three armed forces, police and other security personnel, academics, retired diplomats, former civil and military officials, journalists and others attended the event and contributed to the lively and erudite interactions.