Most people in the country believe the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) will win the highest number of seats in the upcoming Jatiya Sangsad (national parliament) election. Jamaat-e-Islami ranks second on the list of people’s preferred parties.
More than half of the respondents also said the country would be better off if the BNP wins. Nearly one-third believe the country would fare better under Jamaat-e-Islami.
These views emerged in a survey conducted by Prothom Alo. The survey was carried out by the private research organisation Keymakers Consulting Limited. Its title is “National opinion poll on key socio-political issues.”
Which party will win the most seats
One of the survey questions asked: If the upcoming national election is free and fair, which party do you think will win the highest number of seats? The question did not ask for an estimate of how many seats.
In response, nearly 66 per cent of respondents said the BNP would win the most seats. The views of men, women, and respondents across all age groups were broadly similar. About 26 per cent said Jamaat-e-Islami would win the most seats.
Since the fall of military ruler H M Ershad, the BNP has formed the government three times in the past 35 years. Under a caretaker government, the BNP formed government in 1991 with Jamaat-e-Islami’s support. The 15 February 1996 election was boycotted by the Awami League and other opposition parties.
Although the BNP won and formed the government, it lasted only a month and a half. In the second election that year, held in June, the BNP became the main opposition party. In 2001, as part of the four-party alliance, the BNP returned to power with an overwhelming majority.
In the 2008 election, the BNP won 30 seats. The party boycotted the single-party election in 2014 and the controversial 2024 “dummy vote” election. It did contest the 2018 election but won only seven seats, in an election widely marred by irregularities, including ballot stuffing the night before polling—an election now widely referred to as the “night-time vote.”
Jamaat-e-Islami, on the other hand, has never become the second-largest party in any past election. Its highest achievements were 18 seats in 1991 and 17 seats in 2001 (the latter within an electoral alliance with the BNP). After the fall of the Awami League government in the July mass uprising, Jamaat-e-Islami has suddenly emerged as a major force on the political field.
Its student wing recently won absolute majorities in student-union elections at Dhaka University and three other universities. The survey shows that a significant portion of respondents—around 26 per cent—believe Jamaat will win the highest number of seats this time.
In response to the same question, slightly over 7 per cent said the Awami League—whose activities are currently banned. Another 0.8 per cent named the National Citizen Party (NCP), the youth-led party that played a key role in the July mass uprising. 0.1 per cent expressed support for Islami Andolan Bangladesh.
Following the fall of the Awami League government in the July uprising, many of the party’s top leaders have gone into hiding or taken refuge abroad.
The interim government has banned all organisational activities of the party until the trials at the International Crimes Tribunal are completed. Before this, the government had issued the Anti-Terrorism (Amendment) Ordinance 2025, allowing the banning of activities of any individual or entity involved in terrorist acts. The party’s registration with the Election Commission also remains suspended.
The Awami League ruled the country continuously from 2009 until its fall last year. Earlier, it also governed once in 1996. Under non-partisan caretaker governments, the party received between 30 per cent and 48 per cent of the vote in each election.
Several other parties were also mentioned in the Prothom Alo survey regarding which party might win the most seats. Only 0.1 per cent named the Jatiya Party (Japa). Yet in the last three parliaments, JaPa served as the main opposition, though widely regarded as a “domesticated opposition,” as those elections were controversial and Japa had entered parliament through arrangements with the ruling Awami League.
Following his ouster in the 1990 mass uprising, Ershad was jailed. Under the caretaker government, JaPa won 35 seats in the 1991 election, 32 seats in 1996, and 14 in 2001. In the most recent election under a caretaker government in 2008, Japa, contesting as part of the Awami League-led Grand Alliance, won 27 seats.
Which party’s victory would be best for the country
Another question in the survey asked: Which party’s victory in the upcoming national election would be best for the country?
In response, 57.5 per cent said the BNP. 32.5 per cent said Jamaat-e-Islami.
8.5 per cent said the Awami League. 0.9 per cent believed the NCP’s victory would be best. JaPa and Islami Andolan Bangladesh each received 0.1 per cent support.
The survey collected opinions from 1,342 adults (ages 18–55) in five urban and five rural/semi-urban areas. Among them were 674 men and 668 women, representing diverse income levels, social classes, and professions. Data was collected between 21 and 28 October.
The survey organisation noted that this was an opinion poll representing the country’s general population, though it does not represent any specific constituency. The sample includes only people who can read online or print newspapers and who are likely to vote in the next election. The reported confidence level of the findings is 99 per cent.