New government kicks off with political divide unresolved

After a one-sided election, the new Awami League government kicks off with the prevailing political divide remaining unresolved. Many of the opposition leaders and activists are still behind bars. There still remain questions at home and abroad concerning the just concluded election. Under the circumstances, one of the challenges to be faced by the Awami League government, now in its fourth consecutive term, will be to tackle the overall political crisis.

Unless the political crisis is acknowledged and steps taken to resolve it, unrest may crop up in the future, analysts perceive. Awami League’s general secretary Obaidul Quader has also said that along with the economic and diplomatic challenges, there is the political challenge too. He said, “The challenge is actually political, diplomatic and economic. These three challenges lie ahead.”

The members of the new cabinet yesterday, Friday, paid their respects before the portrait of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman at Dhanmondi Road 32. It was there that Obaidul Quader mentioned these three challenges. His words apparently reflect an acknowledgement of the political crisis. But the question remains as to how much importance the government will give to this issue and whether it will make any effort to resolve the crisis.

BNP, which did not take part in the election, feels that the government will not take the crisis into consideration and will simply go ahead on its own accord. The party’s senior joint secretary general Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, speaking to Prothom Alo on Friday, said the Awami League government formed this time through a one-sided election, is advancing towards creating a one-party set-up. But unless a free and fair election is held, this government will trip up.

Though the party general secretary made mention of the political challenge, speaking to several other senior Awami League leaders and at least three ministers, it does not seem that they are bothered about any solution to the political problem. Speaking to Prothom Alo yesterday, Friday, Awami League joint general secretary Mahbub Ul Alam Hanif, said that BNP had made a mistake by not joining the elections and it was BNP that would have to pay for this mistake. BNP, however, rejects the idea that it made a mistake in not taking part in the 7 January election under the Awami League government.

Certain political analysts see this differently. Writer and researcher Mohiuddin Ahmad told Prothom Alo that a sort of one-party government system had been established in the country and so the government would not be bothered about any solution to the political problems.

The low voter turnout features prominently in discussions on the 12th Jatiya Sangsad election. This has been the lowest vote count compared to past inclusive elections. In the 2014 ‘one-sided’ election conducted by Awami League and boycotted by the opposition including BNP, the election commission had announced a 40 per cent voter turnout then too. This time the votes were slightly higher than the 2014 election. According to the election commission, the voter turnout was 41.8 per cent this time.  Even if this is taken to be correct, that means around 80 per cent of the people didn’t vote. That means that most people showed no interest in voting.

Analysts say, it was not just the boycotting parties, but most of the voters stayed away from the election. Mohiuddin Ahmad feels that questions will remain among the international community about the low voter turnout since the US and other countries of the West has taken a visible stand regarding this election.

Many political analysts feel that Awami League went ahead with the election, not taking into cognizance the prevailing political crisis. They do not feel that BNP will be able to create any fresh pressure and so the new government is quite comfortable. Even so, political problem may exacerbate the economic and diplomatic challenges.     

The ruling party leaders are not concerned about the low voter turnout. Their stand is that BNP and a number of other parties in the movement did not join the election, but 28 parties contested in the polls, including Awami League and Jatiya Party.

They use the number of parties that took part in the election to maintain that the election had been a competitive one. But no contestants of 23 of these 28 parties won a single seat. The candidates of these parties lost their deposits too. These are parties just in name, not in substance.

Outside of that, the parties of the alliance that came to a seat sharing arrangement with Awami League, won just two seats. And Jatiya Party won 11 seats. Also,90 per cent of Jatiya Party’s candidates forfeited their deposits. It is obvious that no other party has votes or any position without Awami League.

In the 2018 election, though BNP secured only 5 seats, there had been a big party in opposition to Awami League in the polls. But this time the parliament has become a one-party affair. Awami League’s joint secretary general Mahbub Ul Alam Hanif is unwilling to acknowledge that this is a one-party parliament. He argues that the parliament has representation from Jatiya Party, allies Jasod and Workers Party, as well as independent candidates.

The arrests, cases and convictions against opposition leaders and activists centering the election are major factors in the prevailing political crisis. On 28 October last year, BNP’s grand rally was disrupted. The arrest drive began from the next day. Several top BNP leaders including its secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir were arrested. The arrest drive continued throughout the country. BNP state that till date, over 27,000 of their leaders and activists have been arrested. Jamaat-e-Islami also claims that 3,366 of its men have been arrested.

Four days before the election, home minister Asaduzzaman Khan had told Prothom Alo, around 12,000 BNP leaders and activists had been arrested. He and other ministers claimed that they had been arrested in old cases.

On one hand there was the arrest drive and on the other, over 1,500 BNP leaders and activists were convicted in old cases. Amid such circumstances, BNP continued with its movement in demand for the government’s resignation and boycott of the election. Leaders and activists of the party all over the country who hadn’t been arrested, went into hiding.

It was in such circumstances that Awami League and its allies went to the polls on 7 January. Analysts feel that if the political crisis is given consideration, then the incarcerated leaders and activists of the opposition must be released. But there are no signs of this happening as yet and the government states that these arrests were made on old cases and the cases will proceed according to the law. Speaking to Prothom Alo, law minister Anisul Haque said that the government has no political considerations in these cases and convictions.

Analysts feel that such statements or stands of the government will serve to deepen the crisis of confidence in the political arena.

Political observers see the divide and differences between the two major parties, Awami League and BNP, as the main reason behind the political crisis remaining unresolved. They see this conflict simply increasing. The two parties cannot reach any consensus even on fundamental issues of national interest. Former chairman of the University Grants Commission (UGC) Abdul Mannan, speaking to Prothom Alo, said that unless BNP moves away from its stand concerning the Liberation War and historic issues, there is little likelihood of it reaching any form of understanding with Awami League.

Awami League held the election without taking the political problems into consideration. There now remains the possibility of political unrest over these problems and this may have a negative impact on economic and diplomatic issues. It is to be seen whether the government will make an effort to resolve these issues or simply adopt an ever sterner stance.