EC preparing for polls, disappointed over election environment
The two main parties—Awami League and BNP—are at loggerheads over the election time government. BNP and opposition parties made it clear that they would not participate in polls with the AL government in power and have been waging a movement demanding a neutral polls-time government.
The Election Commission (EC) also thinks that a ‘conducive environment’ for a free, impartial and inclusive election is yet to be created. In such a backdrop, the EC has finished its preparations for the election. The process to send out the equipment related to the election started yesterday.
EC sources said it plans to hold the next general election either in the last week of December or first week of January next year. The outline of works to be done after announcement of polls schedule has also been finalised. The polls schedule might be declared in the second week of November. The commissioners are discussing among themselves whether the schedule to be declared 40-45 days in advance or earlier.
Several election commissioners and officials of the EC secretariat think that BNP will not join the polls given the situation prevailing so far. The EC is no longer concerned about the credibility of the polls if one of the two major parties boycotts it. They rather want to focus on holding a ‘somewhat fair’ election from the position of constitutional obligation. To make that happen, a presence of a good number of voters are required. The EC hopes that the participants would play a role in increasing turnout. The role of police and administration is also very important in holding a good election.
On the other hand, a violent situation might ensue if BNP and opposition parties boycott the election and wage a movement to thwart it. The EC also takes this possible scenario in the account. If such a situation plays out, the EC would deploy law enforcers as per the situation.
BNP boycotted the 2014 general election. Several field level offices of the EC came under attack before that election. In a recent meeting, some officials of the field level expressed apprehension of recurrence of such a situation this time around also if BNP boycotts the election.
The EC on 12 October sent a letter to the home ministry to ensure the security of its field level offices. The EC also plans to keep the law enforcers deployed till 15 days of the election if necessary. EC sources said it is still determined to hold the election on time no matter what situation emerges.
Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Habibul Awal has already said that the EC is not bothered about which party joins polls and which not. EC would not bother about the legitimacy of the election, rather it would focus on the election’s legality. He thinks the EC’s would deem it a major success if people come to vote.
Election Commissioner Md Anisur Rahman told Prothom Alo that it is difficult to predict the situation if BNP chooses not to participate in the election. Whether the situation will resemble what occurred before the 2014 elections is uncertain.
If such a scenario unfolds, actions will be taken as per the circumstances. However, there is hope for a political compromise. Even if a political agreement remains elusive, the constitution does not provide an option to postpone the election.
According to reliable sources, the Election Commission believes that global pressure, particularly the United States' stance on the issue of fair elections, will favorably influence the situation. Even if BNP opts out of the electoral process, diplomatic pressure is expected to prevent them from resorting to violent tactics, as was seen in 2014. The ruling party will also exercise caution, and there will be pressure on the police and administration officials to uphold the standards.
However, the EC has expressed concerns regarding the "no matter what, we have to win" mindset of the ruling party's candidates. The EC is considering the option of sending the ballot papers to polling stations on the morning of the polling day to avoid allegations of ballot box stuffing, as seen in the 2018 elections.
Meanwhile, during an EC training session, many police and administration officials disagreed with the EC's approach, advocating for the ballot papers to be dispatched to the centres on the day before the polls.
However, some of the election commissioners believe that, except for remote areas, the ballot papers should be sent to polling stations on the morning of the polling day to prevent allegations of rigging. The final decision on this matter is yet to be determined.
According to the constitution, the next parliament must be elected within 90 days before the completion of the five-year term of the national parliament. The current 11th National Parliament commenced on 30 January 2018, and its term will conclude on 29 January next year. As per the constitution, the 12th National Parliament should be elected between 1 November and 29 January.
Favorable environment not ensured
Despite the preparations for the upcoming election reaching the final stages, the Election Commission is increasingly aware that the environment is still not conducive for the election. The EC is conducting workshops with various political parties in anticipation of the 12th parliamentary elections.
As part of this effort, a workshop was organised on Thursday, involving various media editors, to discuss the topic of "Upcoming 12th National Assembly Elections: Role of Media, Expectations of the Nation." The editors were provided with discussion points along with the event invitation.
However, the favorable environment expected for free, fair, inclusive, and festive elections has not yet materialised. The differences have not been resolved through the expected dialogue and compromise.
The rival main parties remain steadfast in their respective positions, attempting to demonstrate their support and strength through large street gatherings. However, the Commission does not believe that a resolution to the crisis is imminent.
This issue is inherently political, and the Election Commission's role in this regard is limited. The country has sufficient election laws in place. Nevertheless, without the parallel development of a political culture that aligns with these laws, the effective implementation of the law to achieve desired goals will not be straightforward.
Former Election Commissioner M. Sakhawat Hossain told Prothom Alo, "The Election Commission is issuing various statements frequently, giving the impression that they have doubts about the election."
He further stated that an inclusive election doesn't solely encompass voter participation; it also involves the active participation of various political parties. BNP, being one of the largest parties, is estimated to have the support of 30-40 percent of the electorate.
If their supporters do not turn out to vote, what percentage of the electorate will actually participate? Legally, even a one per cent voter turnout is valid, but the moral aspect of the issue should not be overlooked.
He pointed out that in the 2014 elections, candidates won unopposed in 153 seats, which was legally acceptable but raised questions about the quality of the election itself.