The ruling Awami League is intermittently engaging with its partners and allies. However, the party has yet to provide a definitive commitment to the Jatiya Party (JaPa) and the 14-party alliance regarding seat sharing or compromise.
The Awami League seems inclined to keep its partners and allies in suspense until the deadline for the withdrawal of nomination papers, set on 17 December.
Meanwhile, members of JaPa and the 14-party alliance are actively aligning themselves with the Awami League, hoping to secure seats.
Despite a meeting between alliance parties and Awami League's general secretary, Obaidul Quader, and senior leader Amir Hossain Amu on Sunday night, it is reported that no decision was reached regarding the seat agreement.
This time, parties involved in the anti-government movement, including the BNP, have opted not to participate in the election.
Nevertheless, winning independently poses a challenge for candidates from the Jatiya Party and the 14-party alliance. Hence, they are actively pursuing seat-sharing arrangements and seeking assurances of victory.
According to sources within the Awami League and its allies, the Jatiya Party and other coalition partners are requesting the withdrawal of Awami League's party and independent candidates from certain seats to enhance their chances of winning.
However, the Awami League appears uninterested in conceding these seats. The assurance of full support for key leaders within the alliances to secure victory has been given. Additionally, the Jatiya Party and other allies are urging patience until the deadline for the withdrawal of nomination papers on 17 December.
On 4 December, members of the 14-party alliance had a meeting with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. However, no assurances regarding seat sharing were provided by the Prime Minister. The responsibility for addressing this matter was delegated to Amir Hossain Amu, the coordinator of the alliance.
Following the meeting with Sheikh Hasina, alliance members have engaged in multiple discussions with Amir Hossain Amu, both formally and informally.
There are indications that nominees from the Awami League will refrain from contesting in the seats of four or five top leaders from partner parties. Nevertheless, no definitive confirmation has been received on this matter.
The situation is similar with the main opposition party in the parliament, JaPa. Last week, a group of JaPa leaders met Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. However, sources indicate that while the Prime Minister assured the elections would be free and fair, no assurance was given regarding seat concessions. She suggested that the matter be discussed with the party's general secretary, Obaidul Quader.
Following this advice, leaders led by Obaidul Quader held a meeting with JaPa Secretary General Mujibul Haque Chunnu and Co-Chairman Anisul Islam Mahmud at a house in Gulshan last Wednesday night.
The two sides met again on Saturday night, although Obaidul Quader was not present at the later meeting.
Notably, the meetings between the Awami League and JaPa are being conducted with a high level of secrecy. The location and time of the meetings are not disclosed to anyone, with sources suggesting that this secrecy aims to prevent the disclosure of participants and the details of discussions.
In response to a question at Awami League President Sheikh Hasina's Dhanmondi political office, the party's general secretary Obaidul Quader clarified that the talks with the Jatiya Party were not secret but were being conducted with privacy.
Sources within the Awami League suggest that the negotiations with JaPa are intricate. The Awami League is reportedly focused on discussing the election environment, the potential benefits of JaPa's participation, and strategies to attract votes from the BNP.
On the other hand, JaPa is seeking assurance, expressing concerns that not all party leaders can be committed to supporting the vote without such assurances. Additionally, various parties are engaging in discussions with JaPa on behalf of the Awami League, assuring them that JaPa will secure victory in certain seats.
JaPa Secretary General Mujibul Haque confirmed to Prothom Alo that their discussions with the Awami League will continue. He emphasised that the primary focus of the discussions is on ensuring free and fair elections, and the issue of seat sharing is not currently part of the conversation.
AL’s strategy depends on JaPa
According to party sources from the Awami League, the finalisation of the party's strategy for the 12th National Parliament election is currently at an impasse, largely due to the stance of JaPa. The challenge lies in determining the strategy depending on whether there is an agreement with JaPa or if JaPa chooses to contest independently.
Both Awami League and JaPa sources indicate that JaPa is seeking assurance for at least 35-40 seats. Conversely, Awami League is advising JaPa to contest separately to capture votes from the BNP, while simultaneously expressing a commitment to securing victories for key JaPa leaders.
A central leader involved in shaping the election strategy of the Awami League conveyed to Prothom Alo that while all parties, including JaPa, advocate for fair and free elections, they are seeking assurances of victory at the negotiation table. This request stems from concerns about independent candidates from the Awami League, which are causing apprehension among JaPa and other allies.
According to sources within the Awami League, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been advocating for each party to contest independently, as compromising on this stance may discourage voter turnout. The fear is that if there is a compromise, the international community might perceive the elections differently, undermining efforts to showcase a fair and successful electoral process.
On the other hand, JaPa and members of the 14-party alliance are pushing for a swift agreement. They argue that as time progresses, independent candidates from the Awami League are gaining momentum. They express concerns that a last-minute compromise, even if Awami League candidates are withdrawn, may not guarantee success with independent candidates.
Najibul Bashar Maizbhandari, the president of the Tariqat Federation, a member of the 14-party alliance, informed Prothom Alo that there has been some settlement regarding the seat agreement for the top leaders of the alliance. However, in other seats, the agreement may take another day or two to finalise.
Sources from several partners within the 14-party alliance have expressed dissatisfaction with the Awami League's reluctance to finalise seat agreements and the perceived delay in the process. This dissatisfaction is growing as time progresses without clear resolutions.
Moreover, an important leader from JaPa, speaking anonymously to Prothom Alo, shared that positive discussions have taken place with a few leaders. But the uncertainty remains regarding the allocation of his seat. The leader expressed concern about the difficulty of waiting indefinitely in this uncertain situation.
The same leader highlighted the challenging position JaPa finds itself in – it's not easy to boycott the elections, yet participating and winning alone pose significant challenges. This has placed JaPa in a difficult and delicate situation.
*This report, originally appeared in Prothom Alo print edition, has been rewritten in English by Farjana Liakat