The year was 1988. Belayet Hossain, a newly married man from Uzirpur, Barisal, worked on a ship. Their home was on the banks of the Shandhya River. When the devastating floods of 1988 struck, the house was completely destroyed. Seeking to rebuild their lives and find new means of livelihood, the young couple relocated to the neighboring district Bagerhat.
For three decades, Belayet and his family lived as displaced persons, moving between various areas of Bagerhat. Finally, in 2019, their fortunes changed when Belayet received a government-allocated house in the Narikeltala housing project of Mongla municipality. Though the 500 sq. ft. tin-roofed dwelling is modest, it provides shelter for their family of five, who manage to make do despite the cramped quarters.
In coastal areas, many people like Belayet are losing their homes and livelihoods due to river erosion, repeated cyclones and various climate change-related disasters. People want to cling to their homes despite facing various climate change-related problems such as the scarcity of potable water leading to deadly diseases, girls' skin becoming dull and rough, and the inability to cultivate crops on farmlands. When there is no other option, people move from one district to another, to the capital, or to the country's big cities. This is how the number of displaced people is increasing.
Climate displacement is occurring at such an alarming rate that researchers have been compelled to significantly revise their migration projections from just four years ago. A World Bank report from March 2018 predicted that climate change would displace approximately 13.3 million Bangladeshis by 2050—representing one-third of South Asia's total displaced population.
However, the World Bank's more recent 'Groundswell' report from 2021 paints an even more concerning picture: Bangladesh could now account for nearly half of South Asia's internal climate migrants by 2050, with numbers reaching a staggering 19.9 million people.
The plight of climate migrants and their struggles in the slums of the capital and other big cities are constantly being discussed. However, there are no specific statistics on how many climate refugees are migrating from which regions of the coast, or how they are making a living.
Disaster management expert Abdul Latif Khan told Prothom Alo, “Bangladesh people are incredibly resilient; they can handle any circumstance. Individuals who are migrating are preparing for their future. However, it's true that it's merely coping. They are in a different predicament now. Despite leading an inhumane life, they are surviving. In order to assist these survivors, statistics are vitally important.”
What is the displacement rate?
The term ‘climate displacement’ describes the temporary or permanent relocation of people, either domestically or internationally, brought on by climate change. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) reports that 915,000 people are currently displaced each year in Bangladesh as a result of natural disasters. This figure averaged about 700,000 in the early 2010s.
Bangladesh is ranked sixth in the globe for internal displacement in 2024, according to the recently published IDMC Global Report on Internal Displacement. There are 1.791 million of them. The group reports that hurricanes Fani and Bulbul in 2019 caused 4 million people to be affected, while natural catastrophes caused 1.5 million people to be displaced in 2022, over 1 million in 2021, and roughly 4.4 million in 2020. The group claims that between 2008 and 2022, 17 million people were relocated as a result of natural disasters.
IDMC data shows that displacement is higher in coastal districts such as Bhola, Khulna, Barisal, Patuakhali, and Satkhira. The number of displacements increases in years of devastating cyclones. For example, 2.5 million people were displaced by Cyclone Amphan. However, most of them have returned to their places, according to Tasnim Siddiqui, founding chairman of RMMRU and professor of political science at Dhaka University.
Sea levels could rise between 0.48 and 2 meters by 2100, according to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This rise threatens to submerge 19 coastal districts in Bangladesh, potentially displacing an estimated 21 million people—creating what experts call an unprecedented crisis of climate migration.
Where are the displaced going?
The Narikeltala housing project in Mongla municipality stands on land that was uninhabited just fifteen years ago. When the government built homes for the homeless on this land, 60 families initially settled there. Today, the population has grown to approximately 400 residents. According to BRAC, these families have migrated from other coastal districts and various parts of Bagerhat.
Though Mongla itself faces climate change risks, its infrastructure development, Export Processing Zone (EPZ), and employment opportunities at the Mongla seaport attract climate migrants seeking shelter. This influx has dramatically increased Mongla's population from 40,000 in 2011 to over 158,000 today according to BBS’s population and housing census 2022.
Experts note that displaced people gravitate toward areas with job prospects—primarily the capital, other major cities, and sometimes foreign countries—intensifying urban pressures. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics’ master plan and household census, Dhaka’s population has grown by 3.39 percent through 2021-22. The Mayors Migration Council identifies displacement and migration as key factors in this growth.
Research published in 2018 by the Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU) reveals that approximately 60 percent of climate migrants relocate to Dhaka, 20 percent to Chittagong, and 20 percent to other districts.
Tasneem Siddiqui, RMMRU's founding chairman and Dhaka University political science professor who led the study ‘Accommodating Migration in Climate Change Adaptation,’ told Prothom Alo that most migrants in Dhaka and Chittagong live in slums. They typically settle in communities with others from their home regions—for instance, Bhola slum in Dhaka houses a significant population from the Barisal division.
A 2021 Mayors Migration Council report states that Bangladesh contains 710 kilometers of coastal lowlands. Due to climate change, 2,000 people daily migrate from these vulnerable areas to Dhaka. Annually, approximately 400,000 low-income migrants arrive in the capital, settling in various slum communities.
What is the impact?
Sumona Begum (25) arrived in Mongla from Swarupkathi, Pirojpur, with her mother 15 years ago. As she grew up, she found work at the Mongla Export Processing Zone (EPZ). However, three years ago, she lost her job. Last year, she lost her mother. Then, her husband abandoned her for another woman. Now, she struggles to survive with her baby.
“After my mother died, I have no one here to call my own,” Sumona said. “I have no contact with my relatives in Swarupkathi. If I did, they might have helped me.”
Like Sumona’s mother, Hena Begum, many displaced people migrate to Mongla in search of work, particularly at the EPZ. They settle in the city but must cross the Pashur River daily to reach the Mongla seaport or EPZ for employment.
Meanwhile, the influx of migrants has added to the challenges faced by local residents. Saline water intrusion has rendered agricultural land barren for years, making farming nearly impossible. Some lands have been converted to shrimp farming, but this industry now faces a threat from the white spot virus. While many farmers wish to return to traditional agriculture, experts warn that it could take 25 to 30 years for the soil to recover from salt contamination. As a result, many local families are leaving Mongla for other districts.
Swapna Adhikari, a resident of Chila Union in Mongla, shared her experience: “Our home was in Purba Dhala village on the banks of the Pashur River. When river erosion destroyed our neighborhood, we moved to Chila. Four or five of our families relocated to Dakop in Khulna.”
The combined effects of climate change, environmental degradation, and economic hardship are forcing both migrants and long-time residents of Mongla to make difficult choices about their future.
Three types of people at risk
Three groups of people, according to researchers, are at risk as a result of migration: 1. the migrants themselves; 2. those who stay in the area of migration; and 3. those who live in the area where migration happens. Migration threatens food security, according to research. The economic condition has not changed significantly; instead, the poverty rate is rising. If we examine the Bhola slum in Dhaka, this issue becomes more apparent.
Five hundred thousand people died in Bhola due to the cyclone of 1970. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Bhola cyclone was one of the deadliest natural disasters in the history of this region from 1960 to May 2017.
The wind speed in this cyclone that hit the border of Bangladesh was 224 kilometers per hour. As a result, there was a 10 to 33 feet storm surge. The entire coast suffered damage worth 86.4 million US dollars. Later, the people affected by the cyclone were rehabilitated in Dhaka by temporarily naming it 'Bhola Slum'.
In addition to the severe crisis of basic requirements, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report notes that the Bhola slum's residents experience significant levels of mental sadness as a result of their identity crisis, lack of rights, quality degradation, and social humiliation. According to research, people's prospects of leading healthy lives are steadily declining in the face of such a severe humanitarian catastrophe due to the strain that is growing annually in Dhaka's slums, particularly Bhola.
On the ground in Bhola Slum
The Bhola slum was built on land owned by the Water Supply and Sewerage Authority (WASA) and the National Housing Authority (NHA) in the Pallabi area of Mirpur, Dhaka. WASA has since constructed residential quarters on its land, and the NHA has evicted the slum, clearing its portion of the property. Locals report that approximately 600 families resided there until 2018. Following the eviction, more than a hundred families are living in a row on government land and another 40 to 50 families are living on privately owned land next to it.
During two visits to the Bhola slum, in June of last year and again this past Wednesday, it was observed that residents live in tin-roofed houses lining both sides of a narrow alley. Each house, ranging from 300 to 500 square feet, shelters families of three to eight people. In some instances, houses are stacked vertically, with wooden stairs providing access to upper levels. Basic cooking and water supply arrangements are contained within these single rooms.
The first house at the alley's entrance belongs to Ayesha Begum and Omar Farooq. Ayesha Begum arrived in Dhaka with her mother-in-law, Bibi Sakhina, at the age of 14. “When a cyclone destroyed our homes, we came here with all the children. I had high hopes for my three sons. The government demolished everything; now, we are barely surviving,” Bibi Sakhina told Prothom Alo.
Last year, Ayesha Begum recounted to Prothom Alo, “I married at 13 and moved to Dhaka the following year. I have lived in Dhaka ever since. My three daughters and one son were born here. I have married off my daughters. I wanted to educate my son, but poverty, compounded by the slum’s demolition about five years ago, ended his schooling.”
Omar Farooq, Ayesha's husband, stated, “The pain of leaving our home after river erosion is indescribable. Yet, we built a home here with hope. A mosque, a madrasa, and an orphanage were built through the hard work of the slum dwellers. They destroyed everything. To be honest, the slum eviction caused me more suffering than the river erosion.”
Residents fear imminent eviction from the remaining government land. Rosna Begum, 77, said, “If they demolish our homes, God knows where we will go!”
Necessity of statistics and planning
A study published in the journal Environmental Challenges highlights the importance of urban development and planning in addressing climate migration, citing three key reasons. The study, titled ‘Climate change and Migration impacts on cities: lessons from Bangladesh,’ argues that Bangladesh’s geographical location, high population density, poverty, low literacy rates, and environmental vulnerabilities are causing migration rates that impede the achievement of sustainable development goals.
The study emphasises that cities are central to economic development in any nation, serving as the ultimate destination for livelihood opportunities. Consequently, like other developing countries, major Bangladeshi cities are increasingly becoming centers of poverty.
Furthermore, the study asserts that Bangladeshi urban authorities are unable to provide adequate housing and environmental services to climate migrants. Existing slums are already over capacity, and new slums emerge after each natural disaster, expanding the city’s informal economy and placing immense strain on urban resources.
Experts argue that simply quantifying climate migrants and their adaptation strategies is insufficient. Detailed statistics are crucial to understanding the impact of climate migration on cities, identifying solutions, and ensuring urban livability for all, or developing alternative arrangements.
Tasneem Siddiqui, founding chair of RMMRU, told Prothom Alo, “If adequate measures are not taken, the World Bank's Groundswell report projection of 19.9 million displaced persons will materialise. The government must continue its efforts to address this.”
“The lack of specific data on displacement in Bangladesh prevents the country from applying for assistance from UN climate funds and other international climate compensation funds. These organisations require precise displacement data, which is understandable. Without such data, they cannot justify providing financial aid,” she added.