The country has been going through a sort of uncertainty over the past few days, with sit-in programmes around the chief advisor's official residence Jamuna, the army chief's statement about the election timeframe, conflicting stances of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and National Citizen Party, Professor Yunus pondering on resignation and so on.
There have been all sorts of efforts, behind the scenes and in the open, to resolve the prevailing uncertainty. But the difference of opinion created between the government, the political parties and the armed forces, has not cleared.
All the sides remain rigid in their respective stands. Given the circumstances, any unwarranted incident many render the situation all the more complicated and complex.
The gap between the government and the country's largest political party BNP is steadily widening over the matter of announcing an election roadmap. There is also talk of a distances growing between the armed forces and the interim government.
Strained relations have also emerged among the various political parties including the BNP, NCP and Jamaat-e-Islam. Various equations are at work within the political parties. Some issues have even sparked off hostility among the interim government, political parties, and various state actors.
After the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government in the mass uprising on 5 August, there had initially been differing opinions about who would lead the interim government. Many consider this to be one of the reasons for the misunderstandings or distance between various parties from the outset. Some past incidents are also believed to have contributed to the creation of suspicion and distrust.
In addition, there were, and still are, various questions and blame games surrounding how controversial ministers, members of parliament, and leaders of the Awami League managed to flee the country. Due to the fragile state of the police force, the armed forces were given the responsibility of maintaining law and order on the ground. However, there were discussions behind the scenes about whether they were being included in decision-making on nationally important issues.
Since 5 August, BNP has been calling for national elections to be held as soon as possible. Later the deadline was set for December. They have not, however, directly taken to the streets with this demand. But they have put pressure on the government with the movement launched in demand of BNP leader Ishraque being sworn in as the mayor of Dhaka South City Corporation.
On the question of elections, the position of NCP, the party formed by the students who led the July mass uprising, differs significantly from that of BNP. NCP wants the local elections to be held first. They support holding national elections only after fundamental reforms are completed. The party also wants elections to a constituent assembly. In this regard, NCP has some understanding with certain Islamist parties. While not identical, many of Jamaat-e-Islami’s ideas align with NCP’s line of thought.
The army chief's deliberations on the corridor, port, reforms and other issues related to current affairs, were quite similar to BNP's statements and demands. This led to speculations as to whether there was any sort of understanding between BNP and the army chief
Additionally, some of the interim government's advisors share similarities in thought and various statements with NCP’s positions. BNP leaders believe that these advisors are particularly active, both overtly and covertly, on various issues.
These distances and differences that have been simmering in the political arena from the outset, have not subsided, but are on a steady rise.
The recent unrest in politics began after the incident of former president Abdul Hamid leaving the country. There was a strong reaction over how the president of the authoritarian Sheikh Hasina government was allowed or permitted to leave the country despite facing legal cases.
In response, the government formed a high-level investigation committee. However, the incident had a significant impact on the political landscape. A movement was launched following this, under the leadership of NCP leader Hasnat Abdullah , and with the participation of Jamaat-e-Islami, Islami Andolan, Hefazat-e-Islam, and other parties. This included the "Jamuna blockade." In response, the government banned all activities of Awami League.
Although BNP leaders welcomed the government’s decision, they did not actively take part in the movement. Suspicions began to grow within the BNP over whether the repeated surfacing of new issues was a strategy to delay the elections.
Four days after Abdul Hamid left the country, on 12 May reports suddenly emerged in the public sphere about heightened tensions and increased security measures centered on the cantonment, causing a stir. Speculation ran rife on social media. At the time, there were widespread reports suggesting that the government was considering removing the army chief. However, neither the government nor the military made any official statements on the matter.
In such a situation, on 20 May a high-level meeting was held on the country's "law and order situation" at Jamuna, presided over by the chief advisor Muhammad Yunus. The chiefs of the Army, Navy, and Air Force, along with other senior officials, attended the meeting.
There was also talk that separate meetings between the chief advisor and the heads of the three armed forces took place either before or after the main meeting. However, no official statement was made on the matter either.
Amid such discussions and tensions, the demonstrations demanding that BNP leader Ishraque be appointed mayor reached near Jamuna on 21 May. Through this, BNP exerted a certain degree of pressure on the government. The party demanded the resignation of two advisors, who joined the government as representatives of the students, who lead the uprising, and the national security adviser.
In response, NCP labeled three other advisors as BNP-aligned and called for their resignation as well. At the same time, it announced a programme demanding the reconstitution of the election commission.
Then amid all these tensions, on 21 May, a statement of Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman at the Officers’ Address at the Dhaka Cantonment was made public through the news media and social media platforms. He stated that the election should be held in December and also expressed dissatisfaction with the political situation, which added a new dimension to the ongoing situation.
The army chief's statement appeared in the local and international media, giving rise to much discussion and debate. BNP leaders issues statements in favour of what he said. Elements within the interim government saw the army chief's statement as a dissenting view. The chief advisor, after all, had said that the election would be held between December this year and June 2026.
The army chief's deliberations on the corridor, port, reforms and other issues related to current affairs, were quite similar to BNP's statements and demands. This led to speculations as to whether there was any sort of understanding between BNP and the army chief.
In such a situation, during the advisory council meeting on 22 May, the chief advisor revealed that he was considering resignation. When this became public, it sparked concern.
That night informal discussions were held between the BNP, Jamaat, and NCP regarding the matter. Various political parties also reached out to the chief advisor’s office.
Later, on the afternoon 24 May, after a meeting of the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC), Professor Yunus held a special meeting with the advisory council.
During this meeting, the members of the advisory council expressed a firm stance on fulfilling the responsibilities entrusted upon them. The statement made by the army chief was also discussed there. Following this, the statement issued by the advisory council clearly reflected the government's strong position.
Afterwards, the chief advisor held meetings with political parties. Everyone expressed confidence in Professor Yunus. However, BNP was not satisfied with the discussions. At a press conference on Tuesday, BNP stated that if a clear roadmap was not announced immediately, it would be difficult for them to continue cooperating with this government.
Yesterday, Wednesday, at the BNP youth rally in Dhaka, party leaders strongly criticised the interim government. BNP’s acting chairman Tarique Rahman joined the event virtually and said that delaying tactics regarding the elections have begun. He told the interim government that the national election must be held by December.
According to the latest information from various sources within the government, the chief advisor remains firm in his position. He wants to deliver a free and fair election. If a situation arises where pressure leads to a hurried or flawed election, he may have to make a tough decision.
Many are of the opinion that the lack of mutual trust between the interim government, the army and the major political parties had deepened the uncertainty. A bond of trust between the interim government, the army, BNP, NCP, Jamaat and others is essential to establish stability in the country, carry out certain important reforms and hold a free and fair election. But this has faced a hiccup from the very beginning. Nine months since the mass uprising have passed and the suspicions and mistrust has increased.
The people are concerned with the prevailing situation. Everyone wants an understanding to forge a path to democracy. The overall stability of the country depends on how far the government, the political parties and other concerned quarters display a sense of responsibility and tolerance.
* Tipu Sultan is head of politics and crime, Prothom Alo