I am somewhat skeptical about surveys conducted in our region. There is no procedural flaw in the surveys themselves. Even so, for some reason I feel that people in this region do not tell the truth in surveys. Many do not want to give accurate information even on the condition of anonymity.
Despite that, the results that have come out in the Prothom Alo survey align quite closely with my own understanding. It seemed to me that this survey has captured the real picture
A number of survey results have been published recently. I analysed the surveys carried out before India’s 2024 national election. In every one of those surveys, the Congress-led alliance ended up winning far more seats than what had been projected.
In the recent surveys conducted in Bangladesh, the reported gap between the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami has been very small. The question remains as to how credible that is. The Prothom Alo poll appears to be an exception in this regard.
According to the survey data, 47.5 per cent of respondents believe that the person most likely to become Bangladesh’s next prime minister is BNP’s acting chairman, Tarique Rahman. In comparison, far fewer, 25.4 per cent, think that Jamaat’s amir, Shafiqur Rahman, has the chance to become the next prime minister.
But when people were asked who would be better for the country as the next prime minister, public support for Shafiqur Rahman rose to 31.7 per cent. Support for Tarique Rahman stood at 36.9 per cent. In the past, Tarique Rahman’s role during the BNP’s time in power has been the subject of much discussion and criticism. He has overcome much of that. Even so, when it comes to who would make a better prime minister, some of his relatively lower support can be traced to those past criticisms.
The past three national elections were not conducted properly. We are seeing many surveys this time, but there were hardly any surveys during those previous three elections. As a result, we have no scope to analyse the present using past survey data. And because those past three elections were not held properly, we have no real understanding of voter behaviour from that period. The surveys being conducted now will provide an opportunity to compare not only with the coming election but also with future elections.
BNP has said that if it wins the next election, Tarique Rahman will become prime minister. Even so, many people still see the party’s ailing chairperson, Khaleda Zia, as the next prime minister. This stems from people’s love and sympathy for her. Khaleda Zia’s physical condition is critical. The outpouring of emotion people are showing for her while she is in hospital is unprecedented. God forbid, if she were to pass away before the election, the sympathy she commands would shift towards the BNP. Support for Tarique Rahman could also increase. And if she recovers and appears on the campaign trail, that too would benefit the BNP. In other words, people’s love for Khaleda Zia could work positively for both the BNP and Tarique Rahman.
The finding that 92 per cent of people say they will vote in the upcoming election is entirely natural. This is because the country has not had an acceptable election for 17 years. The public’s long wait has created strong desire to vote. The small number of people who are not interested in voting are diehard supporters of Awami League.
Even in the Western world, women are often supported in advancing in employment. Yet politically, women’s advancement is frequently not accepted
It is understandable that just over half the people are optimistic about the election being free and fair. The interim government’s sincerity in ensuring a fair vote is unquestionable. However, whether they have the capacity is still an open question. The government has repeatedly shown failures even in maintaining day-to-day law and order. Naturally, people may wonder how capable it will be of conducting elections in all 300 constituencies at once, curbing clashes between rival parties, and controlling internal party disorder.
There is a tendency in this country to vote based on party. This is not necessarily a bad thing, because it is the party that forms the government. But I feel that this tendency has declined. In past elections, supporters of BNP, Awami League, and other political parties were estimated at around 70 per cent of voters, with the remaining 30 per cent considered swing voters. In other words, previously about 70 per cent of people voted based on party affiliation. The survey suggests that the strong partisan attachment people once felt, has weakened.
I am not sure how accurate it is that two-thirds of people feel the influence of religion-based parties is increasing, or that most believe it would be good if Islamic law were implemented. However, it is true that people’s attachment to religion is growing. If this attachment were as strong as suggested, the Islamist parties led by Jamaat in coalition could have had a higher chance of winning elections, but that has not happened.
Regarding women’s representation in parliament, the majority opinion against increasing it reflects reality. Our society is already patriarchal and misogynistic. Even in the Western world, women are often supported in advancing in employment. Yet politically, women’s advancement is frequently not accepted.
* Zahidur Rahman is a teacher and political analyst