Bangladesh’s 12th Jatiya Sangsad election is being held today, 7 January. It is universally acknowledged that development and democracy are intrinsically linked. In his book ‘Development as Freedom’, written in 1999, the Nobel laureate economist Amartya Sen wrote that it is essential to establish a functioning democracy for the sake of human resource development and poverty elimination, to do away with disparity and conflict, and to take the country to the peak of development. He said that it is not possible to establish sustainable development and human rights in the absence of democracy.
The most essential element in establishing democracy is electing people’s representatives by means of an election that is acceptable to all. Yet in Bangladesh, other than a few exceptions, so far all the elections have been questionable and unacceptable.
Governments established though questionable elections can in no way be termed as governments of a democratic process. A couple of parties with massive public support in 1990 brought about a mass uprising for the cause of democracy, free and credible elections and an accountable government. But the one-sided election of 2014 smashed all those aspirations.
There is nothing new to say about the 2014 and 2018 elections that were not free, fair or credible. These two elections are nothing to be pleased about in a country like Bangladesh, steeped in history and heritage. The 2014 election will go down history known as the 'vote-less election' and the 2018 election as the election of 'night votes'.
It is acknowledged by all the 2018 election process was something new, being termed as a "so-called election" in the democratic world. The ruling party leaders as well as the chief election commissioner and his colleagues are now quite unhesitatingly speaking out about what sort of election this was. In fact, one of the election commissioners (now deceased) even wrote about this in a book.
The caretaker government system was abolished before the 2014 election. But BNP and other opposition parties boycotted that election. As the 2018 election was joined by all parties, that election can be called an election under a party government. It was essential for that election under the political government to be free and credible for the sake of Bangladesh's democracy to grow. But that did not happen. So with two consecutive elections being isolated from the people to a greater extent, the scope of actually democracy has shrunk.
In context of these two elections, BNP and its like-minded parties demanded that a neutral ground be created for elections. This demand gradually gathered momentum. Meanwhile, the US and the western world put on pressure for a universally acceptable election in the country.
However, 20 to 25 days before the election schedule was announced, apprehensions of arrest swept through the opposition camp. The government began arresting opposition leaders and activists en masse on allegations of creating chaos and terror. Many of those arrested were put on trial and convicted. And so it can be presumed that today's election will be same as the previous elections in a different mode.
The government is going ahead to hold the election with its homegrown definition of an inclusive election. According to the ruling party's definition, if a large number of voters turn up at the polling centres and cast their votes, that will be considered inclusive. This does not tally with the other definitions prevalent in the world, resulting from research, concerning inclusive elections.
The ruling party has even provided training to around 200,000 workers to bring voters to the polling centres. So many voters are not coming to the centres voluntarily, out out of fear. But it is to be seen how they will vote and for whom they will vote
Anyway, going outside the prevalent definitions, scope has been given to eager candidates, other than those nominated by the ruling party, to contest in the election to create a semblance of 'inclusivity'. Concessions have been made to accommodate these candidates, known as 'dummy candidates'. Added to them are 26 so-called parties who names have never been heard before, except for three or four. We also see the leaders of a number of parties of the ruling party alliance, contesting under the ruling party symbol, rather than using their own.
The government has conceded to giving 26 seats to Jatiya Party, which had at one time been the third largest party of the country. But there are 'independent' and 'dummy' candidates in those constituencies too. With the ruling party's 'dummy' candidates and so the so-called independent candidates posing as quite strong contenders, Jatiya Party and the allies using the 'boat' symbol, are now concerned about their future.
So far 76 of the candidates nominated or backed by Jatiya Party have withdrawn from the election. They say they have taken this decision due to the rash decisions of the leaders. It is to be seen how many of this party remain in the fray, other than the 26 whom have been accommodated in the understanding.
According to news reports, all measures will be taken to ensure the victory of certain candidates who have defected from BNP and also some of the "king's parties". It is doubtful whether this will show up in the ruling party's new definition for a free, impartial and credible election. The role of the election commission is to be seen in this regard. But it is hardly likely that they will be able to do anything.
I am highlighting certain significant aspects of this 'innovative' election which may serve as material for future research. Firstly, in Bangladesh it is not compulsory to cast your vote. That is why the ruling party has taken up various strategies to increase the vote percentage of their nominated candidates, including scare tactics and also threatening to stop state-provided benefits and allowances.
According to newspaper reports, the ruling party has even provided training to around 200,000 workers to bring voters to the polling centres. So many voters are not coming to the centres voluntarily, out out of fear. But it is to be seen how they will vote and for whom they will vote. There are allegations that even the law enforcement agencies, particularly the officers in charge at the police stations, have been given this duty too. And this is the first election where there are no restrictions on cars and other vehicles too. It is difficult to say what success the election commission expects to achieve by imposing restrictions only on motorbikes.
Now I present here some food for thought regarding this new style of election. This election is not being held to determine which party will run the country because there are no doubts at home and abroad as to what the elections results will be. It is to be seen who will be the opposition in parliament. It could be an opposition comprising independents or an independent coalition under some hardly known party, or the condensed form of Jatiya Party could also be the opposition. The question will also arise, if there are 60 to 70 independent candidates, will they lend their weight to the ruling party or the opposition?
This election must been seen as a dangerous omen for the country's political and multiparty democracy. Many small parties, particularly the allies, will face extinction. Political observers say that there are signs that even party considered the third largest, Jatiya Party, may face extinction. And many of the ruling party-nominated candidates who have long been in power, may see an end to their political careers at the hands if their political associates. That is why conflict and desperation is sprouting up in many places. Many analysts say that this may lead to divisions and rifts in the ruling party. This does not bode well for Bangladesh's politics.
Meanwhile, despite most of their leaders behind bars and many convicted, the opposition has not split. They may survive. If not, even if the ruling party may remain in power after the election as planned, Bangladesh elections and politics will bear a hard blow. Almost all institutions will be damaged too.
We can only hope and prayer that nothing happens that pitches the country and people of the country into an intolerable and insufferable predicament.
* Dr M Sakhawat Hossain is an election analyst, former military officer and SIPG senior research fellow (NSU). He may be contacted at [email protected]