'Disruptive technologies, energy security and grim growth loom large in 2023'

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, deteriorating state of climate change, national elections in several South Asian countries, disruptive technologies, energy security and grim growth outlooks were just a few of the issues raised by speakers at a recent roundtable on global trends. Challenges were looming large in the global scenario. Timely action and awareness were essential, they said.

The roundtable, 'War, Famine and Turbulence: Global Trends 2023' was organised at The Westin Dhaka on Sunday, 22 January by Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS).

In his opening remarks, Maj Gen ANM Muniruzzaman (retd), president of BIPSS, said that several issues were beginning to disturb the international system. There was no end to the Russia-Ukraine war in sight. In a recent statement, a former president of Russia said that the use of nuclear weapons could not be ruled out. Financial uncertainties loomed large.

"Food insecurity hangs over us," said the BIPSS president, "Bangladesh and other countries face difficulties in food chain management. Energy security is a problem. Flash points for conflict have cropped up as in the Taiwan straits, the Sino-Indian conflict. Deterioration of the climate can lead to catastrophic changes. It is election year for several South Asian countries. Also, disruptive technologies are being developed with the metaverse, large scale use of AI, misuse of algorithms, and more."

In her overview of the global economic trends in 2023, Dr Fahmida Khatun, executive director of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) said the global economy was going through a series of challenges. "International monetary organisations have predicted that 2023 will be a bad year," she said, quoting IMF as stated that growth would drop globally.

Given the grim growth outlook, she continued, the world will face high inflation in 2023. Limited income households and the poor will have to spend more on food and fuel. "Bangladesh's economy long enjoyed macroeconomic stability, but not anymore. Covid came around and then the war, and it affected the entire world," she said.

Pointing to the inflation in Bangladesh, she said that the official rate was one thing but reality was another. "It is very disturbing. Even the prices of TCB goods have gone up by 20 to 50 per cent. We have to import many commodities like oil, sugar and wheat, but not all inflation is imported. The market is captured by a few players who manipulate the market."

She said that the rising fuel prices added to the suffering of the people and it had happened during a difficult period. It created difficulties at the household and the industrial level.

Coming to the external sector, the CPD executive director said that even though exports have been good, imports had been higher. There was less remittance too. "The trade gap in the external sector could have been normalised with higher remittance, but remittance had declined," she said, adding that the current account balance was also negative and there was also a depletion of foreign exchange reserves.

As for the government's response to the situation, she said that it had adopted certain austerity measures, announced the curtailing of certain foreign trips, some projects had been stopped or postponed, but these were not very successful measures.

Moving on to the banking sector, Fahmida Khatun said that it had been vulnerable even before Covid and the war. The banks, not just state-owned ones but private sector banks too, were rife with scams and misappropriation of funds. Liquidity was declining and 9.3 per cent of the total loans were non-performing. IMF put the rate much higher.

In conclusion, she said that the world is facing challenges. There will be an end to this, but the countries with stronger institutional mechanisms would recover better.

Air Vice Marshall Mahmud Hossain (retd), former ambassador and distinguished expert, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Aviation and Aerospace University (BSMRAAU), remarked that it could not be predicted that the Russia-Ukraine war would end in 2023 and that the consequences would be gruesome for the world. "Ukraine is not alone in its crusade against Russia -- the US and others are in this too," he said. "Russia has nuclear strength, but Ukraine has an edge of Russia in hybrid warfare. However, Russia might relate with tactical nuclear weapons, which would be horrendous in human casualties. Russia may also opt for an all-out energy war. The more Russian fuel can't go to the market, the more oil prices will rise in the global market. Being an oil-importing country, Bangladesh is already feeling the crunch. Famine and food security will be a great challenge for Bangladesh in 2023."

He continued that Russia's alliance with China may be globalisation going into reverse. In 2023 it will matter for global leaders to clear the world of turbulence, but who will lead in this? It was uncertain.

"Western leaders cannot ignore President Xi. Modi is a rising star in the Russia-Ukraine war. India will play a carrot and stick game with its neighbours, excepting Pakistan," he contended.

Deliberating on how Bangladesh could face the challenges, he said, "Political leaders could avoid conflict and take up reconciliation for greater good. The political goal should be institutional development." But, he added, election turbulence had been predicted for the year 2023.

Shafqat Munir, head of BCTR and senior research fellow, BIPSS, pointed to the geopolitical scenario, where there was the conflict in Ukraine, rising tensions between China and India which would impact the region, and domestic issues as well. Technology should not be ruled out when talking about security in 2023, he added.

"Resource crunch will have an impact on domestic stability," Shafqat Munir stated, reminding the roundtable about the situation in Sri Lanka. "We are 12 months from the war in Ukraine and there is no end in sight. The problem will be worse if there is an accidental escalation. So far there has been a ground war with aerial elements, but there has been talk of tactical nuclear action."

He pointed to the Sino-India tensions as another potential crisis. "While rapprochement has brought down tensions," he said, "the military of both countries are eyeball to eyeball in Arunachal and Ladakh."

Coming to the issue of technology, he highlighted concerns about the various types of disruptive technology that had emerged. "What happens if some of this technology falls into the hands of the 'bad guys', how to stop the metaverse being used by nefarious characters?" he questioned, saying that cyber radicalisation was hard for state authorities to control.

The roundtable ended by lively interaction with the participants, including former civil and military officials, foreign diplomats, academics, journalists and others.