Priority-based management essential

This uncertainty is the main source of concern. If fuel shipments arrive on time, the risk of a major crisis will be low. But if supply is delayed, shortages may emerge, especially in the diesel sector, which could become a major challenge for the economy. The stock situation for petrol and octane is relatively stable. However, the country requires around 400,000 tonnes of diesel per month. If a shortfall of 100,000 to 150,000 tonnes occurs, there will be no option but to limit supply in certain areas.
Priority-based management needed to tackle the crisis

Priority-based management is essential to address the energy crisis. The government’s first task should be to set priorities. Greater priority should be given to freight transport, industrial production, and the agriculture sector compared to passenger transport. This is because these three sectors directly keep the wheels of the economy turning. Without fuel, industrial production will halt; if goods transport stops, the supply chain will collapse; and a diesel shortage in agriculture will disrupt food production.

The situation with gas and LNG is even more complex. Previously, 40-50 per cent of total LNG demand was met through long-term contracts with Qatar and Oman. Now, with that supply limited, the government must purchase gas from the spot market at higher prices. Before the war, LNG could be obtained at $10-11 per unit; now the price is $21-22, nearly doubling the cost of gas imports. As a result, gas supply has become increasingly dependent on subsidies.

The big question here is: how long can this subsidy continue? If the global crisis persists, it will have a negative impact on the economy. Even if the war ends, the supply chain will not quickly return to normal. With infrastructure in the Middle East damaged, it may take six months to a year to restore normal supply. Many countries worldwide have already implemented measures such as reducing office hours, limiting shop timings, partially closing educational institutions, and conserving energy.

Developed countries are taking similar measures. Therefore, initiating energy-saving measures in Bangladesh is not unusual.

Another important aspect is informing the public about the real situation. During a crisis, presenting the facts is more effective than giving false assurances. This helps the public cooperate in managing the crisis and increases trust in the government. Energy shortages are a global reality, and even many developed countries were unprepared. In such a situation, panic is not helpful; rather, acknowledging reality and moving forward with a planned approach is most important.

To tackle the energy crisis, the government has three main tasks: ensure supply, implement priority-based management, and involve the public in energy conservation. At the same time, it is crucial to present the situation transparently and maintain a balance between short-term and long-term planning.

* M Tamim is an energy expert