BNP uneasy over internal divisions, Jamaat’s weakness lies in alliances

Selina Akhter owns a clothing shop in the Jailkhana Mor area of Sylhet city. Asked about the electoral mood, the voter from Ward no. 17 said it makes little difference to her whether the Dhaner Sheesh (BNP's symbol sheaf of paddy) or the Daripalla (Jamaat's symbol weighing scale) wins—people will have to earn their own livelihoods regardless, no one will feed them.

Still, she said she will go to vote as a civic duty, because the environment was not conducive to voting in the last three elections. This time, she hopes the polls will be peaceful.

After touring Sylhet city and nearby upazilas and speaking to numerous voters, it is clear that most people intend to vote. A handful said they have yet to decide. Sylhet district has six parliamentary seats, while the four districts of the division together account for 19 seats. Sylhet city is home to people from nearly all districts of the division and serves as a central hub.

Subarna Deb, a final-year Computer Science and Engineering student at Leading University, hails from Baurbagh village in Moulvibazar Sadar upazila. She plans to go home to vote. Speaking to Prothom Alo, she said, “This will be my first time voting. It feels really good.”

Discussions with locals indicate that in most constituencies of the division, the main contest will be between BNP’s Sheaf of Paddy and Jamaat-e-Islami’s Scales. However, several key BNP leaders did not receive nominations in this division. Some were denied their desired constituencies and were instead nominated elsewhere.

This has left internal rifts and resentment within the party. In some cases, leaders dissatisfied with seat-sharing with alliance partners have become rebel candidates, adding to BNP’s worries.

According to local politicians, BNP supporters, and voters, internal divisions eased somewhat after Tarique Rahman’s visit to Sylhet. But if the underlying distance and dissatisfaction are not resolved, it could affect the vote.

Jamaat-e-Islami, on the other hand, has not historically performed well in Sylhet division. In the 2001 election, Farid Uddin Chowdhury was elected from Sylhet-5 as a candidate of the Four-Party Alliance.

Jamaat has had no notable success in Sunamganj, Moulvibazar, or Habiganj. Locals say Jamaat has gained strength since the fall of the Hasina government. However, out of 19 seats in Sylhet division, Jamaat has ceded 10 to alliance partners, leaving one seat open. This means Jamaat has party candidates in only eight seats.

Jamaat leaders believe that had they contested some of the seats handed over to allies, their candidates would have had a strong chance of winning. Now, they fear alliance candidates may not be able to deliver the same results.

In Sylhet-3 (Dakshin Surma, Fenchuganj, and Balaganj), BNP nominated MA Malek, the recently retired president of UK BNP, who had lived in the UK for 19 years and returned to Bangladesh after 5 August, 2024.

Strong local aspirants included district BNP president Abdul Qaiyum Chowdhury, central leader MA Salam, and district Jubo Dal convener Abdul Ahad Khan Jamal.

Local BNP sources say that after Malik received the nomination, Qaiyum, Salam, Ahad, and others joined the campaign in his support.

However, there is discussion over whether supporters of other aspirants have fully accepted Malik, given his long absence from local politics. While no one speaks publicly, locals say a section of the party remains quietly disgruntled.

District BNP president Abdul Qaiyum Chowdhury said, “In a big party, it’s natural to have multiple aspirants. Once the nomination is final, everyone is united to ensure victory.”

In Sylhet-5, BNP ceded the seat to alliance partner Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Bangladesh’s central president, Obaidullah Faruk. District BNP vice-president Mamunur Rashid (CUCSU Mamun) is contesting as a rebel candidate. Although BNP expelled him, many local activists are working in his favor.

In Sylhet-6, BNP nominated district general secretary Emran Ahmed Chowdhury. Several influential leaders sought the nomination. While they publicly support the party candidate, local sources say divisions persist behind the scenes. Jamaat’s Mohammad Selim Uddin, Ameer of Dhaka North, is contesting here as an 11-party alliance candidate, making the race particularly tight.

In Sunamganj-1, BNP initially nominated former Tahirpur upazila chairman Anisul Haq, then replaced him with another former chairman, Kamruzzaman, issuing nomination letters to both. As a result, Anisul Haq could not formally rebel, but his supporters have yet to accept Kamruzzaman.

In Sunamganj-3, UK-based Qaysar M Ahmed is BNP’s candidate, while former district vice-president Anwar Hossain is running as an independent. In Sunamganj-4, former district vice-president and ex-sadar upazila chairman Dewan Zainul Zakareen is contesting as a rebel after missing the nomination, challenging BNP candidate Nurul Islam. Locals say rebel candidates could put BNP in trouble in both seats.

In Habiganj-1, Reza Kibria—son of former finance minister Shah AMS Kibria—joined BNP at the last moment and secured the nomination. Former BNP MP Sheikh Sujat Mia rejected this decision and entered the race as an independent, posing a serious challenge.

In Moulvibazar-4, BNP nominated central committee member Mujibur Rahman. Independent candidate Mohsin Mia (Madhu), former mayor of Sreemangal, has become a major headache for the party, despite being expelled from the district BNP convening committee.

In Sylhet-1 (city and sadar), BNP chairperson’s advisers Khandaker Abdul Muqtadir and Ariful Haque Chowdhury both sought nominations. Muqtadir got the ticket, while two-time mayor Ariful was nominated for Sylhet-4 (Companiganj, Gowainghat, and Jaintapur).

BNP leaders believe Ariful had a strong base in Sylhet Sadar and would have won easily there. Instead, Sylhet-4 is new terrain for him and is also considered promising for Jamaat, making the contest difficult.

BNP sources say Ariful’s supporters are disappointed over his exclusion from Sylhet Sadar. While party leaders are actively campaigning for Muqtadir, doubts remain over whether Ariful’s faction will do so wholeheartedly.

Local voter Monir Ahmed said Ariful Haque enjoys immense popularity in Sylhet Sadar, and Muqtadir faces a tougher contest as a result.

Jamaat’s candidate in Sylhet-4 is Zainal Abedin, former Jaintapur upazila chairman and district Jamaat secretary. Jamaat is campaigning by portraying Ariful as a non-local candidate. Locals, however, say Ariful remains a strong contender, turning Jamaat’s potential stronghold into a difficult battleground.

Although BNP claims Ariful has united other aspirants, central BNP leader Miftah Siddiqui—another former aspirant—has yet to be seen campaigning for him. Siddiqui told Prothom Alo he is campaigning across the division and will visit Sylhet-4 in the coming days.

In Sylhet-3, Jamaat had long prepared former Dakshin Surma chairman Lokman Ahmed as its candidate, but he withdrew at the last moment due to alliance arrangements, backing Bangladesh Khilafat Majlis candidate Musleh Uddin Raju.

Jamaat activists say the party has a solid vote bank here, while BNP’s candidate is relatively new. They believe Jamaat could have won the seat if it had contested independently.

In Habiganj-1, Sylhet city Jamaat secretary Mohammad Shahjahan Ali withdrew in favour of Khilafat Majlis candidate Mufti Sirajul Islam Mirpuri. Jamaat supporters say the party is far stronger than its ally here and could have capitalized on BNP’s internal divisions. Shahjahan Ali said he has no regrets and is campaigning for the alliance candidate.

Most voters in Sylhet division are expected to turn out this time. Which way the votes will go may become clearer closer to polling day. However, if BNP fails to overcome its internal divisions, its candidates could suffer. Jamaat’s prospects, meanwhile, depend on whether alliance partners can fully mobilise supporters across parties.