Bangladesh in 'red' category of food inflation — what lies ahead amid the Middle East crisis

Bangladesh is unable to exit the ''red'' category, which is at risk of food inflation for almost three years.

Although overall inflation decreased somewhat due to various interim government initiatives, food inflation has increased again over the last five months.

A recently published World Bank report highlighted Bangladesh's ''red'' status.

This report was prepared by updating the food security situation of various countries around the world until November last year. However, after November last year, the food inflation situation in Bangladesh worsened further.

The World Bank publishes this food security report by considering 10 to 12 months of food inflation data. Bangladesh has been on the red list for the last 10 months.

This means that the risk of food insecurity in Bangladesh is not decreasing and could increase further due to the Middle East crisis.

In addition to Bangladesh, 13 other countries have been in the red category for 10 months. These countries are Ethiopia, Mozambique, Angola, Ghana, Mongolia, Nigeria, Tunisia, Ukraine, Zambia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, and Russia.

Selim Raihan, Executive Director of the private research institute South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), told Prothom Alo that the increase in food inflation is quite concerning. If the Middle East crisis prolongs, it will affect the country's imports, which could increase inflation.

Selim Raihan also noted that compared to neighbouring countries, we have been quite unsuccessful in reducing inflation. According to government agencies, the inflation rate is between 8.5 per cent and 9 per cent, which is already quite high. In reality, inflation is even higher.

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) provided inflation data up to February, while the World Bank report covered up to last November.
According to BBS, food inflation in February was 9.30 per cent, the highest in 13 months, marking high food inflation.

Back in January of last year, food inflation was at 10.72 per cent. It then decreased but remained above single digits. Over the last five months, food inflation has been rising. In February, non-food sector inflation was 9.01 per cent.

Food inflation has been significantly high for more than three years. Previously, the poor and people with limited income hadn’t experienced such prolonged hardship.

In February last year, food inflation was 9.30 per cent, meaning if your meal expenses in February 2025 were Tk 100, in February 2026, it would cost Tk 109 and 30 paisa. For every Tk 100, expenses increased by Tk 9 and 30 paisa. This means the food expenses for people of all classes in Bangladesh have increased by almost one-tenth.

This is an average calculation regardless of being rich or poor. A large portion of the poor people's income goes to buying food, sometimes up to two-thirds.

Inflation is a kind of tax. Suppose your entire monthly income is spent on running the household. If income doesn’t increase but food prices rise, you will either have to go into debt or reduce your food list.

The worst category in the World Bank's list, considering high food inflation, is the purple category. Malawi has been in the purple category for 9 months in the past year. Iran and Zambia have been for eight months, and Turkey and Argentina have been in the purple category for seven months.

Other countries on the list have moved between red, purple, yellow, or green categories over the past year. Some have improved their food inflation situation while others have worsened.