What would the impact of lockdown be on the economy?
Any lockdown is a big loss for economy. I think the imposition of lockdown is necessary given the spread of coronavirus. But lives and livelihoods cannot be stopped completely. Export-oriented industries and banks have been kept open. Supply of agricultural products and machinery will continue. Bazaars are open on a limited scale. It is also acceptable to supply food from restaurants in a scientific manner. People will not crowd the restaurants. I think the government has done the right thing suspending the movement of inter-district transport and this will yield results. I think the infections will drop to a great extent if the lockdown is extended to 15 days.
How was the preparation of the government to tackle the second wave of coronavirus?
There was no preparation. The government is supposed to make people aware of coronavirus transmission but we noticed crowds at the government functions. Elections of different tiers were held amid coronavirus. The gathering should have been prevented at the tourist centres, especially at the Cox's Bazar sea beach. The second wave of coronavirus hit Bangladesh late. The government got time to prepare.
What is the way to make up economic loss due to lockdown?
The second wave of coronavirus hit the country when the economy started turning around after tackling the first wave of coronavirus. Lockdown had to be imposed. We had hoped the economy would be normal in June-July and will return to how it was of 2019. But that is no longer possible. And eight-day lockdown is being enforced strictly and if it is maintained, the infections will decrease. It is expected that the economy will gradually become normal if the infections decrease.
The problem is that the health sector is the principal sector to tackle coronavirus, but the capacity of this sector has not increased in the last one year. The number of beds and ICUs has not increased. Rather corruption has increased. They failed to spend the budget allocated for the health sector. Where made a they move to spend it, the initiative came to a halt due to irregularities.
An allocation of Tk 20 billion for social safety programmes is lying idle as the government is unable to identify the right persons and disburse the funds accordingly. How do you view this problem?
The government did not take up any big programme to support the people affected by coronavirus. The government planned to provide Tk 2500 to each of 5 million families, but could not implement it properly. The poor people will be in trouble if the government does not learn from the previous mistakes. Before lockdown, the government should have sent dry food to the poor people. Then they would not crowd at the bus terminals, train stations and ferry ghats.
Controversy surfaces over the list of any public welfare programmes. Finally, the beneficiaries are deprived. What is the remedy?
The government has been fully dependent on the bureaucrats. They have been assigned to manage the lockdown situation. The public representatives have not been involved. How will they make a flawless list? An incident of Pakistan regime can be cited here. During a flood, Ayub Khan asked East Pakistan governor Monem Khan to send a list within a week. The governor told secretaries to send a list by six days. Secretaries told deputy commissioners to send a list by five days. Deputy Commissioners asked SDOs to send a list by four days. SDOs told circle officers to send a list by three days. Circle officers told UP chairmen to send a list by two days. In this situation, it is easily assumed what type of list was made. I do not think the bureaucrats have come out of that situation.
Export earnings and the flow of wage earners' remittance more or less were normal in the last one year despite the outbreak of coronavirus. Do you see any crisis in future?
We have to understand the real mystery behind the increase of wage earners' income. The income of expatriates has not increased even a bit. Rather it has decreased. Around 300,000 to 400,000 migrant workers returned home losing jobs. Many migrants have sent additional money to their families due to pandemic. Many have sent money as there were floods for several months. Laundering of money abroad has decreased during the outbreak of coronavirus.
Selling and buying homes also remain halted there. There is no profit in depositing money in the foreign banks. There is 4 to 5 per cent of interest in our country. The rate of interest is 11-12 per cent in savings certificates. As a result, the migrant workers have sent their savings home. I am optimistic about the export sector, especially the RMG sector. There was a growth of 30 per cent in export to the US. The developed countries are overcoming the shock of coronavirus. The demands for products will increase in those countries.
What type of budget should be formulated during the coronavirus pandemic? Which sectors have to be focused on and which sectors have to be left?
An unrealistic budget is formulated every time in our country. I will ask the government to take lessons from the previous year. Be realistic. What is the benefit of formulating a budget which cannot be implemented? I said the same thing in a virtual meeting with the finance minister. Five per cent of deficit is shown in the budget. The deficit should be 7-8 per cent this year. Some 32 per cent of the budget has been implemented till February last. Budget must be realistic. Social safety net programme has to be widened and allocation has to be increased. Unnecessary projects and projects of little importance have to be excluded.
Employment opportunities are supposed to increase if the growth increases in the country. Our growth is increasing, but employment is not. What is your take on this?
This is the big challenge. There is no solution to unemployment if investment is not increased massively. We are unable to attract both local and foreign investment. This crisis aggravated during the coronavirus pandemic. As many as 2.2 million people enter job market every year. We are able to provide jobs to at best 1.3 million people. Where will the remaining people go?
Education appropriate to the times is needed to create skilled manpower. Is the education sector able to supply skilled manpower?
The education sector is unable to do. This is very unfortunate. There are little discussions about the education sector. We have confined the students at homes for one year. A section of these students including girls will discontinue permanently. US former president Donald Trump did many unwarranted things, but one statement he made was correct: open the schools. Joe Bidden said the same thing. But we remained silent, on the excuse of coronavirus. What would have happened if educational institutions in the villages had been opened? Classes would have been held in open playgrounds. Coronavirus did not spread to remote areas. Everything was open except educational institutions. Markets and shops were open.
Are our banks running properly?
The condition of BRAC Bank is good. But the banking sector is not in a good shape overall. Earlier, many banks became weak. Those have become more vulnerable during coronavirus. If the board of directors of a bank is good, the bank runs well. There are problems with boards of many banks. There is collusion among different board members. The bad loans will increase in the banking sector if the banks run in this way.
How did the stimulus offered by the government to keep industries and business establishments open make the economy vibrant?
The government initiative was right. The government has given the stimulus, putting pressure on the banks. The government was supposed to provide Tk 1200 billion. The big investors including RMG owners got the stimulus, but the small entrepreneurs did not receive. The allocation for the small entrepreneurs was little, only Tk 200 billion.
There are allegations that banks did not show any interest to provide loans to small entrepreneurs.
But we have provided the loans. All banks are not prepared to provide small loans. BRAC Bank has the organisational capacity. So we could do it. We were asked to provide Tk 101 billion first. We provided this. Later Tk 2 billion more was given. IDS also gave funds. But many banks and NGOs would not be able to manage giving loans at an interest rate of 9 per cent and so they did not come forward.
*This interview, originally published in Prothom Alo print and online editions, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam.