12th national elections would be rife with many political questions

Despite many dramas and debates and warnings of powerful countries, the 12th parliamentary elections have concluded. An analysis of the past reveals whatever be the opposition, it is well-nigh impossible to prevent any election from taking place if any governing party remains determined. The parliamentary election that took place on 15 February in 1996 could not be stopped despite the opposition of several parties including the Awami League. The voter turnout was a meagre 21 per cent. Then the 10th parliamentary elections could not also be stopped in 2014 though the largest opposition party opposed it.

Several political parties, big and small, waged a movement for four years to stop organising the 7 January election but to no avail. Rather, thousands of leaders and activists of key opposition, BNP, either are in jail or have been on the run. It can be said that the governing party and its alliances organised the election without any big obstructions. Three big powerful countries acknowledged the government in 2014 and 2018 without any hesitation. They maintained their previous trend though the 12th parliamentary election was rife with various problems.

The 2014 election is called voterless since the candidates of 153 out of 300 constituencies won uncontested at that time. Though the local and foreign analysts termed the election as a failure, the government completed its tenure. The opposition could not succeed in preventing the election even after waging a violent movement. Again, there is not much debate on the unfair nature of the parliamentary election in 2018. The election was held in and outside of the scheduled time. From the top brass to grassroots leaders of the governing party say this every now and then these days. This time, a different strategy was applied as the de facto opposition and their like minded parties boycotted the election. The 12th parliamentary elections are nowhere near the two previous elections in terms of strategies.

This time 26 registered and almost equal number of non-registered new but known parties united on demand of an election-time government. But this could not create a 2014-like situation, rather the election was held almost without any hindrances. Even a minimum level of leniency was not shown to the opposition parties.

But the model of the 12th general election and the post-poll environment demand some discussions, especially owing to its far-reaching consequences.

Firstly, this was effectively a one-party election though 26 political parties took part in the voting on paper. Outside of the governing Awami League, only Jatiya Party was a notable political party that contested the election. However, the Jatiya Party is on the verge of destruction now. Among the three small parties, Samyabadi Dal is not in the field for a long while the position of Bangladesh Workers’ Party has been gradually diminishing even after remaining under the influence of Awami League. JASAD is now facing extinction following the electoral loss of the party chief Hasanul Huq Inu, former information minister, even after contesting the election with “boat”, the electoral symbol of the ruling party. The presence of the Kalyan Party chief, who believed in the politics of the opposition camp for 15 years, among the winners is the only exception.

We are saying this election as a one-party election because there is a doubt whether the other political parties that took part in the polls only to validate it got even 1 per cent of the total votes cast. This was also seen in the 2018 election though that was inclusive. Though 39 parties contested the 11th parliamentary election, three of them got more than 5 per cent of the votes, two got less than 2 per cent votes while the remaining parties managed to get less than 1 per cent of the votes cast. There is doubt whether people could recall the names of the parties.

While the 2024 election process has introduced some differences, the internal dynamics within the party remain largely unchanged. Shifting from previous practices, the government party aimed to enhance the participatory and competitive nature of the election by relaxing party restrictions. This included opening up participation beyond the designated party candidates, allowing independent and so-called 'dummy' candidates to enter the fray.

Notably, 26 relatively unknown parties (apart from Awami League and Jatiya Party) participated, contributing to a total of 1,969 candidates. However, a significant record was set as 73 per cent of these candidates had their security money forfeited, totalling 1,441 candidates. Data reveals that candidates from 21 out of the 28 parties lost their security deposits, marking a noteworthy record in the election history of Bangladesh.

According to the results, out of the 300 seats, Awami League party candidates secured victory in 223 seats. In the 14-party coalition, the Workers Party and Jasod each obtained one seat. Reported independent and dummy candidates associated with the Awami League clinched 62 seats. The ruling party also conceded 26 seats to the Jatiya Party, which secured victory in 11 of them. Additionally, the Kalyan Party won one seat, and the election for the remaining postponed seat will be held later.

It is clear that all the parties in the 12th national parliament are favoured by the government. Nearly all of the remaining 62 independent candidates are affiliated with the government party, unless their membership is revoked at any stage following Article 47 of the Awami League constitution. Many of these so-called independents may be reluctant to sever ties with the party, considering the potential impact on their future political endeavours.

The prevailing question now is which party will assume the role of the 'domesticated' opposition this time. Overall, there seems to be the prospect of witnessing something new. If the Jatiya Party takes on the role of the opposition with its 11 members, the role of the remaining 63 independent candidates remains uncertain.

Before this election, I asserted that the internationally accepted definition of inclusive elections extends beyond mere voter turnout. The debate around voter turnout, initiated by the election commission itself—whether it is 28 or 42 per cent—continues. However, both local and foreign media, along with eyewitnesses, have reported the lowest-ever voter turnout in this election.

This election will leave numerous questions in the realm of Bangladesh politics. The division that has been witnessed in a prominent and longstanding party like the Awami League, following this election, will have an long lasting effects within the party. The very existence of the Jatiya Party, once considered the third-largest party, is now being called into question. It appears that a split in the party is imminent, similar to what transpired with Jasod in the seventies, leading to the Jatiya Party potentially becoming irrelevant in the future.

On the other hand, the main opposition party, BNP, has steadfastly maintained its decision to abstain from participating in this election, yet it has not suffered a major breakdown. The Islamic Andolan also boycotted the election, but the party has amassed significant political influence and expanded its voter base in recent years. Interestingly, this marks the first time that the traditional left parties of Bangladesh have chosen to stay out of the electoral process. Concurrently, several new parties led by young leaders have successfully established their presence.

Additionally, some longstanding parties like LDP and Jasod opted out of the election. It remains to be seen how much the anti-government factions will continue to shape the political landscape of Bangladesh in the future.

In essence, the new government faces the formidable task of managing the economy, ensuring good governance, eradicating corruption, and navigating through complex political and geopolitical challenges.

* Dr M Sakhawat Hossain is a former election commissioner, an election analyst, former army officer and a senior research fellow of SIPG (NSU). He can be reached at hhintlbd@yahoo.com

** This op-ed, originally published in the print and online editions of Prothom Alo, has been rewritten in English by Farjana Liakat and Shameem Reza