The drama of the Round of 16 is over. The quarter-finals begin with France taking on Morocco at 2:00 am Bangladesh time today. The match has become the centre of attention for football fans around the world.
On paper, France are the favourites, and a closer look explains why. At this World Cup, France have primarily operated in a 4-2-3-1 formation, although they frequently adjust their shape during matches. Their attacking and defensive structures evolve depending on the phase of play, making them one of the tournament's most tactically balanced teams. Their players have also delivered remarkably consistent performances throughout the competition.
Statistics show that Morocco have enjoyed 59 per cent possession so far in the tournament, compared with France's 55 per cent. However, France's possession is far more purposeful. They do not keep the ball unnecessarily but instead build attacks with a clear plan. Another interesting statistic is that France have created fewer goal-scoring opportunities than Morocco through the Round of 16, yet they have been more efficient in converting their chances. Their clinical finishing, combined with lightning-fast attacking transitions, makes them a constant threat against any opponent.
Among the remaining eight teams, France are arguably the quickest and most effective at transitioning from defence to attack. With Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise and Kylian Mbappe leading the frontline, their attack is devastating. Olise, in particular, has been the tournament's leading playmaker with five assists.
France have also excelled defensively, conceding only two goals in five matches. Much of that defensive solidity comes from the excellent understanding between central defenders Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba, whose concentration throughout matches has provided Didier Deschamps' side with an extra layer of security.
Morocco, meanwhile, sometimes dominate possession without much purpose, with much of their passing concentrated in midfield. However, the partnership between right-back Achraf Hakimi and right winger Brahim Diaz on the right flank could cause France serious problems. Both players are capable of producing moments of brilliance and represent Morocco's greatest attacking weapon. France's priority will be to disrupt that combination; otherwise, they could find themselves under considerable pressure.
Morocco began their World Cup campaign with a 1-1 draw against Brazil. Although they are not strictly a low-block team, they are highly effective when defending deep. If France's full-backs push high up the pitch and Morocco launch quick counter-attacks from their defensive block, the French defence could be exposed.
One major concern for Morocco is the hamstring injury suffered by Ismael Saibari. If he is unavailable, Morocco's build-up play may suffer significantly.
France also have an injury concern in midfield, with Aurelien Tchouameni struggling with fitness. Whoever replaces him may not provide the same level of defensive protection, which could leave France more vulnerable.
Morocco typically defend in a disciplined 4-5-1 block.
Overall, I would give France a 55-45 advantage heading into the match.
That means I see France as the more likely team to reach the semi-finals.
Predicting the other three semi-finalists is more difficult, but despite the risks, I would pick Spain, England and Argentina. On paper, all three possess greater quality than their respective opponents. If they perform to their potential, each should have a strong chance of reaching the last four.
That said, football is rarely decided on paper. What matters most is performance on the day. The way the tournament's underdogs have challenged and troubled the traditional favourites throughout this World Cup shows that any result remains possible.
So while my current prediction is that France, Spain, England and Argentina will reach the semi-finals, I cannot guarantee that forecast will hold. The answers will ultimately come on the pitch. For now, however, my vote goes to the favourites.
* The author is a football coach and analyst.