Load shedding may increase this summer

The temperature has started rising at the end of winter, leading to an increasing demand for electricity, which is expected to rise further in March.

However, generating electricity in line with demand is becoming difficult. Despite having more power plants than required, they are not being fully utilised.

Short-term load shedding has already begun in various parts of the country, and regular load shedding may occur during Ramadan.

According to Power Division sources, the maximum electricity demand is estimated to reach 16,000 MW in March and 18,000 MW in April. Last year, power generation during the same period ranged between 12,000 and 14,000 MW, while this year it is expected to be around 13,000 to 15,000 MW.

To cover the deficit, load shedding may have to be implemented again this summer, as seen in the past three years.

After a meeting at Bidyut Bhaban (power building) on 5 February regarding summer preparations, Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources Advisor Muhammad Fauzul Kabir Khan told newspersons that load shedding could reach up to 1,400 MW.

He also warned against excessive use of air conditioners (ACs) to manage the power shortage.

On 17 February, he warned that power lines would be disconnected if ACs were kept below 25 degrees Celsius.

However, officials from the Power Development Board (PDB) and various power plants indicate that load shedding may increase even further. Plans have been made to generate 13,000 MW from gas and coal, but there is uncertainty regarding the fuel supply.

An additional 1,000 MW is expected to come from imports, excluding Adani’s contribution. The rest of the electricity will need to be generated from oil-fired plants.

If power plants fail to pay their outstanding bills and secure a stable fuel supply, a shortage of 2,000 to 3,000 MW may occur, leading to two to three hours of daily load shedding during the peak summer months.

According to information from PDB and Power Grid PLC Limited, load shedding continued until mid-November due to an inability to meet demand. However, as demand dropped in winter, power shortages subsided. Over the past three months, daily electricity demand remained below 10,000 MW, but it has now exceeded 11,000 MW and is expected to rise further next month. On Wednesday, the maximum load shedding recorded was 100 MW per hour.

Last year, Ramadan began on 11 March, and load shedding gradually increased from mid-March. By the end of the month, it peaked at 1,000 MW on some days. In April, load shedding intensified further.

Currently, 143 power plants have a combined production capacity of approximately 27,000 MW. The highest recorded daily electricity production was 16,477 MW on 30 April last year.

Since then, production has never reached 16,000 MW. Instead, due to regular maintenance, outstanding bills, and fuel shortages, generating even half of the total capacity has become challenging. Power plants collectively owe more than Tk 200 billion (20,000 crore) to the PDB, making it difficult for them to import fuel to keep operations running.

According to PDB officials, the capacity to generate electricity from gas exceeds 11,500 MW. At present, 900 million cubic feet of gas are being supplied daily, producing 4,500 MW of electricity. From next month, gas supply is expected to increase to 1,200 million cubic feet per day, which could generate 6,500 MW.

However, concerns remain over gas availability, as Petrobangla is struggling to pay its liquefied natural gas (LNG) bills on time due to the ongoing dollar crisis, the officials maintained.

PDB Chairman Md. Rezaul Karim told Prothom Alo that an additional 6,500 MW will be generated from gas and coal, with oil-fired plants being operated as needed.

He added that outstanding bills are being cleared gradually and ongoing issues are being addressed. Preparations are underway to prevent power shortages in the summer, with maximum efforts being made to minimise load shedding.

A plan has been made to maximise power generation from coal-fired power plants during Ramadan. However, several uncertainties remain. While the current capacity for electricity generation from coal is around 8,000 MW, less than 3,000 MW is being produced.

Experts say that technical glitches, outstanding electricity bills, the dollar crisis, and complications in coal imports are preventing power plants from maintaining a steady supply.

The three units of the Barapukuria coal-fired power plant in Dinajpur have a combined capacity of 525 MW and rely on coal from local mines. However, two units remain shut most of the time due to coal shortages, and currently, less than 100 MW is being generated from the remaining unit. Additionally, seven power plants, including Adani, depend on imported coal.

During a meeting on 10  February, the PDB requested full power supply from Adani, which is supposed to provide 1,500 MW from two 800 MW units. 

At present, only a little over 750 MW is being supplied from one unit. The second unit, commissioned on 11 February, was shut down due to a technical fault, and it remains uncertain when it will resume operation. 

In the past, similar faults have repeatedly disrupted production at this plant. Meanwhile, Adani is pressuring the authorities to clear outstanding bills, and the ongoing dispute over coal pricing between the two parties remains unresolved.

The Rampal power plant has faced the most shutdowns among coal-fired plants. One unit of this 1,320 MW plant is non-operational due to coal shortages, with outstanding bills exceeding Tk 40 billion. As a result, maintaining a steady coal supply has been difficult.

At the Matarbari power plant in Maheshkhali, Cox’s Bazar, two units are supposed to produce 1,200 MW in total, but one unit is currently shut down, with outstanding bills amounting to Tk 20 billion. However, an official from the power plant assured that both units would be operational in March and that there is no coal shortage.

In Chattogram, one unit of the Banshkhali power plant is shut down but is expected to resume production within a day or two. Similarly, maintenance work is ongoing at one unit of the Payra power plant in Patuakhali, which is expected to be operational by 1 March. Both plants have adequate coal reserves.

Additionally, a new 1,320 MW coal-fired power plant in Patuakhali is set to begin trial production, with electricity supply from one of its units expected in March.

Fuel oil-fired power plants have a generation capacity of approximately 6,000 MW. These costly plants are primarily operated at night during peak demand.

Last summer, daily production reached up to 4,500 MW. However, power plant owners say they previously imported oil independently and received a 9 per cent  service charge for unloading it. This rate was recently reduced to 5 per cent, and as a result, they have decided to stop importing oil, which could disrupt production.

KM Rezaul Hasnat, president of the Bangladesh Independent Power Producers’ Association (BIPPA), told Prothom Alo that a letter was sent to the PDB on Wednesday, informing them of this decision.

He stated that if the PDB arranges for oil, power plants will be able to generate electricity during the summer.

The previous Awami League government built numerous power plants without ensuring a steady fuel supply. As a result, more than 25 per cent of power plants remain idle and continue to collect capacity payments due to fuel shortages. This has increased the financial burden and passed additional costs onto consumers.

Over the past decade and a half, electricity prices have been raised 14 times, yet load shedding continues to occur every summer. Since 2022, the country has faced a foreign currency crisis, leading to widespread load shedding every summer.

M. Tamim, former Special Assistant on Energy to the Chief Advisor of the caretaker government, told Prothom Alo that load shedding is inevitable, but efforts should be made to keep it at a bearable level.

He noted that power generation capacity largely depends on imported coal and LNG, and the severity of load shedding will be determined by budget allocations for these energy sources. Additionally, the government can implement various energy-saving measures to help control electricity demand.

* This report, originally published in Prothom Alo Bangla version, has been rewritten in English by Farjana Liakat