Bangladesh may have to increase rice import to one million tonnes from 0.3 million tonnes as rice production may decline by 0.7 million tonnes in the marketing year of 2023-24 than earlier forecast.
This is stated in a forecast of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The agency released this report on crops on 23 August.
According to the crop forecasts, the rice production in Bangladesh will decline due to the continuous heat wave in the country during the Aus season. The rainfall has also decreased. Similar weather existed in the beginning of the Aman season in July. Later, there was heavy rainfall in August.
The rice cultivation has declined due to the adverse weather, which may lead to the decrease in production, USDA quoted the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) as saying.
Again, the production cost of farmers will also increase.
Agriculture minister Abdur Razzaque, however, does not think that a huge amount of rice will have to be imported. He said rain increased in August.
As a result, the production of Aman may increase. The minister said adding the overall rice production may be quite good.
Abdur Razzaque said, "We hope we will be able to meet the demand with the rice produced in the country."
A total of 38 million tonnes of rice has been produced in Bangladesh in the fiscal year 2021-22. Although the financial year 2022-23 has ended, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has not yet published the data of production on its website.
Rice is produced in three seasons in Bangladesh. The biggest season is Boro. In this season paddy is cultivated between December and January.
Rice is harvested in April and May. Aus is cultivated after Boro. Aman is cultivated during the full monsoon. The cultivation of Aus and Aman depends on rainfall while Boro depends on irrigation.
USDA in their forecast last March said Bangladesh is likely to produce 37.1 million tonnes of rice in three seasons in the marketing year of 2023-24. In the latest forecast it has reduced the figure to 36.4 million tonnes.
The USDA estimates the cultivable land for Aus by reducing 5 per cent to 1.05 million hectares. They said rice production may decrease by 4 per cent to 2.4 million tonnes this season. It estimates the cultivable land for Aman by reducing three per cent from its previous forecast to 5.7 million hectares and rice production will stand at 14 million tonnes.
Earlier, the USDA estimated two million tonnes of rice were produced in the last Boro season. They say their forecast was that Bangladesh will have to import 0.7 million tonnes of rice. The new forecast has increased the amount to one million.
However, due to increased duty on India's exports, Myanmar's announcement of export control and high prices in the world market, there are concerns about rice imports. Also, it is difficult to meet the import expenses as Bangladesh Bank does not have enough US dollars.
Expenditure increased
In the country last year, the production cost was Tk 28 kg. According to the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), the cost of production has increased by five per cent due to lack of rains and other reasons including irrigation. It may cost Tk one more per kg.
BRRI director general Shahjahan Kabir told Prothom Alo that Aus and Aman were mainly rain-fed crops. But over the years we have been observing a reduction in monsoon rains. As a result, the main crops of that time, Aus and Aman, had to be irrigated.
According to the USDA, irrigation costs vary from farmer to farmer. But the average cost is Tk 2000 per acre. Higher cost of fuel, fertilizers, seeds, pesticides and labour also enhanced the cost of production.
The USDA report says rice prices have slightly risen each month since the start of the 2023-24 marketing year. The average price of coarse rice stood at Tk 49.40 per kg in July, which is the same as last year.
The USDA report also highlights Bangladesh's rice stocks. It said that there are 1.74 million tonnes of rice in the government warehouse so far, which is 12 per cent more than the same period last year.
According to the USDA forecast, the production of wheat and maize in Bangladesh may increase slightly this year.
The former vice-chancellor of Bangladesh Agricultural University professor MA Sattar Mandal told Prothom Alo that production costs have increased in Boro, Aus and Aman in various sectors including irrigation and fertilizers. It may increase in the coming days. Farmers will have to pay the price for the extra cost. He said that enough rice can be produced in the country if the price is fair.