Activities banned, leadership on the run: What future awaits Awami League?

The activities of the Bangladesh Awami League as a political party is currently banned in Bangladesh. The government has made it explicit that the party will not be allowed to contest the upcoming general election. A large segment of its top leadership is either fugitive or taking refuge abroad; many are in prison.

Meanwhile, the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) has sentenced the party’s president, Sheikh Hasina, to death for crimes against humanity. Against this backdrop, the question has inevitably arisen: what future awaits the Awami League? Yet the party’s senior leadership seems resolute; there is no sign of contrition.

According to several central leaders and former ministers, now in hiding, who spoke over the past two days following Sheikh Hasina’s death sentence, said their focus is on ensuring the participation of the Awami League in the next general election. Those leaders now abroad believe this will not be possible unless the interim government led by professor Yunus is toppled. Failing that, they intend to prevent the 13th parliamentary election from taking place smoothly.

But what happens if these attempts fail? The leaders have no clear idea. Nor is there any sign that they intend to apologise for past mistakes or make overtures to resolve longstanding disputes with other political parties.

Within the party, there is a desire for a “refined” or “purified” Awami League. Foreign well-wishers have also advised the party to acknowledge its past wrongs and undertake a process of internal reform.

Sheikh Hasina had long claimed that foreign powers were behind the fall of her government. However, in a recent interview with India-based News18, she said that neither the United States nor any other foreign power had been “actively involved” in bringing her government down. Whether this marks the beginning of self-reflection or reform remains to be seen.

An interim government was formed on 8 August last year following the fall of the Awami League during July’s student-public uprising and Sheikh Hasina’s subsequent flight to India. From the outset and to the present day, the Awami League and Sheikh Hasina have remained openly hostile towards the interim government. As a result, the party’s leaders see no prospect of normalising relations.

After the interim administration took charge, the Awami League staged brief flash processions in Dhaka and elsewhere. Under the banner of online-announced programmes such as “lockdown” and “shutdown” following the ICT’s verdict, the party orchestrated clandestine attempts to instil fear, hurling crude bombs and torching vehicles. Many grassroots activists were arrested.

Throughout this period, Sheikh Hasina, her US-based son Sajeeb Wazed Joy and several central leaders regularly posted online speeches and statements to motivate party activists in those activities.

Political analysts believe the Awami League may still have space to return as a political entity in future. Some even note the possibility that individual Awami League figures may contest the next parliamentary election as independent candidates or under other party’s banners. But the party’s full return as a major political force will depend on whether it changes its current policies and strategies. Moreover, given the death sentence for crimes against humanity, it is considered unlikely that the 79-year-old Sheikh Hasina will be able to return to an active political role.

Considering the interim government’s stance and the fugitive status of the Awami League leadership, professor Al Masud Hasanuzzaman, retired from Jahangirnagar University’s Department of Government and Politics, believes the party’s future will depend largely on the behaviour of the post-election government due to assume office in February. Thus, the Awami League has no option but to wait.

According to Awami League insiders and political observers, two possible paths remain open for the party. The first is the way it came to power previously: engineering another mass uprising. But even Awami League members consider this nearly impossible.

This is because the party’s top leaders, including the party chair, are abroad. Nearly all those who remained in Bangladesh have been imprisoned. Apart from a few banned Bangladesh Chhatra League or young activists who occasionally appear in flash marches, former ministers, MPs and local government representatives remain unseen.

Information emerging from various leaders suggests that internal disputes among fugitive leaders have worsened. Those living in India’s Kolkata in particular are blaming one another for the fall of the government and the party’s current predicament. There are also disagreements over who will fund local activists inside Bangladesh. Given this disarray, the leaders themselves doubt whether the party can reorganise anytime soon.

The second possible route, according to analysts, is to acknowledge past mistakes, apologise, and seek another chance from the public. Yet there is reportedly no such inclination at any level of the party. Leaders say admitting wrongdoing would mean accepting responsibility for the killing of students and the people, a stance they refuse.

Another possibility is a sweeping leadership overhaul. There is some internal discussion that Sheikh Hasina may be willing to step aside and hand power to another family member. There is also talk of distancing most central leaders, former ministers and MPs. But Sheikh Hasina is reportedly unwilling to take this step immediately; she prefers to weather the crisis with the same controversial leaders who surrounded her during the downfall.

The sentiment among party leaders is, “Whether we accept it or not, the International Crimes Tribunal’s death sentence for Sheikh Hasina is extremely consequential. We may call it an illegal verdict, but to overturn it we must return to power. And no one knows how many years that might take.”

Some leaders also admit privately that while they acknowledge the party and its leadership are in deep crisis, there is no meaningful internal discussion on how this situation arose or how it might be resolved.

According to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights’ fact-finding report, some 1,400 students and citizens were killed during the July uprising in 2024. Around 30,000 were injured; many lost their eyesight or limbs and now live in extreme hardship. Families of the dead and injured harbour deep resentment towards the Awami League.

These wounds will not heal quickly. The families of those killed or injured are unlikely to support any return of the Awami League. Therefore, the government cannot afford to show sympathy towards the party. Moreover, the Awami League has persistently displayed hostility towards the current government, making concessions unlikely. At most, some Awami League individuals may be allowed to contest elections as independents or under other party banners.

The National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by young leaders of the mass uprising, remains adamantly opposed to the Awami League’s return. Regardless of the NCP’s present organisational strength, the government takes its position seriously.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami leaders endured severe repression for nearly 15 and a half years under Awami League rule. Sources within both parties say that no matter what electoral strategies unfold, neither party would welcome the Awami League or Sheikh Hasina if they came to power.

A central Awami League leader, requesting anonymity, said the party views the interim government as an outright enemy. Should another political force assume power, imprisoned activists may at least be granted bail. Once free, they could gradually reorganise.

After the government fell, Sheikh Hasina fled to India on 5 August 2024. A significant number of central leaders and former MPs soon followed. Over the past year and a half, those taking shelter in India have faced no major difficulties. According to Awami League leaders, the Indian government has treated them sympathetically.

This support from India had encouraged them to believe that the influential neighbour would eventually help them return home. This message was also conveyed to grassroots activists. Additionally, after Donald Trump won the US presidential election last year, party activists saw renewed hope. That optimism has since waned, though many still look to India and other foreign powers as potential saviours.

During and after the uprising, Awami League activists vented anger at the security forces. Many central leaders and former ministers blamed the military for the government’s collapse in foreign media interviews. Despite this, many activists continue to dream of regaining their lost political position.

A former cabinet member from the ousted Awami League government said the leadership now finds it necessary to keep activists hopeful. To maintain morale, they are assuring those inside the country that both domestic and foreign forces will ultimately support them.

Party leaders say that once the February election is over, pressure must be exerted on the next government, both politically and internationally. They expect to have support from the Jatiya Party and former allies in the 14-party coalition.

According to political analyst professor Al Masud Hasanuzzaman, the Tribunal’s verdict has pushed the question of leadership restructuring to the forefront.

According to him, if the Awami League wishes to return to organisational and constitutional politics, its leadership must take far-reaching decisions.

He believes the party will need to rethink its leadership structure.